1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 26
  3. ARK vs MSU
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 26

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Michigan State Spartans

Little Caesars Arena · Neutral site
#18ARKArkansas AP #12
vs
#10MSUMichigan St AP #6
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ARKThis seasonMSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSU 82–77 · win probability MSU 68%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

ARK 2, MSU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ARK 32.0%, MSU 37.8%. Defensive: ARK 69.1%, MSU 77.6%
ARKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ARK 12.2%, MSU 17.1%. Forced: ARK 15.5%, MSU 14.9%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: ARK plays 73.8 a game (12th fastest), MSU 67.3 (264th). Faster games mean more points
MSUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ARK 19%, MSU 63%. Transfers in: ARK 2, MSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
ARKSmall
Three-pointers
ARK hits 38.2% and allows 31.8%; MSU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 33.0% and 36.4% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: ARK 56.4 and allows 51.8; MSU 53.8 and allows 48.9
Even
MSU offense vs ARK defense
Offense 21st of 366 against a defense 47th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ARK 35.9, MSU 35.9. Allowed: ARK 31.2, MSU 30.2
Context
Schedule so far
ARK has played the 8th-hardest schedule, MSU the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
ARK offense vs MSU defense
Offense 6th of 366 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MSU -5.3—
Total—158.3—
Projected score—ARK 76.5 · MSU 81.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMSU -3.0—
1H total74.0—
1H projected scoreARK 35.5 · MSU 38.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas has the better starters

Position by position: Arkansas 2, Michigan St 0, even 3
ArkansasBetterMichigan St
G B. Richmond11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 2 ast Score 85
Even
G J. Fears15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.4 ast Score 99
G J. Wilkinson TR17.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 98
ARKBig
G K. Teng7.3 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 63
G A. Brown0.1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Carr12 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85
F C. Bowser TR13.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 91
ARKBig
F J. Scott5.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 53
F I. Sealy2.9 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
C A. Bonke TR10.4 pts · 8.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 80
ArkansasBetterMichigan St
ARK offense6th of 366 · +10.8
Even
MSU defense5th of 366 · +9.3
ARK defense47th of 366 · +2.2
Even
MSU offense21st of 366 · +7.6
Backcourt+5.9 · 3 players
MSUSmall
Backcourt+7.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+3.7 · 2 players
MSUSmall
Frontcourt+4.8 · 3 players
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Even
Bench+0.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestARK betterMSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Arkansas
Guards
B. Richmond28 minJ. Wilkinson26 min · TRA. Brown2 minA. Kelley2 minJ. SmithNewD. ThompsonNew
Forwards
C. Bowser30 min · TRI. Sealy7 minP. SemedoNewM. MakerNewJ. AndrewsNewM. MuurinenNew
Michigan St
Guards
J. Fears32 minK. Teng18 minM. WatkinsNewJ. JervisNewC. MedlockNew
Forwards
C. Carr29 minJ. Scott21 minC. Ward15 minJ. McCulloch7 minB. Walton1 minC. Walton1 min
Centers
A. Bonke26 min · TRE. TaylorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ARKMSU
Scoring
90.2 #2Points per game78.8 #84
1.23 #3Points per possession1.17 #40
73.8 #12Pace (possessions)67.3 #264
Shooting
56.4 #16Effective FG%53.8 #72
38.2 #163-point %36.3 #47
33.0 #3153-point attempt rate36.4 #241
35.9 #155Free throw rate35.9 #157
Possessions
12.2 #1Turnover rate17.1 #217
32.0 #121Offensive rebound rate37.8 #10
17.2 #20Assists per game18.6 #4
Defense
81.0 #333Points allowed68.3 #37
1.09 #213Points allowed per possession1.02 #40
51.8 #201Opponent effective FG%48.9 #61
31.8 #54Opponent 3-point %33.0 #119
15.5 #246Turnovers forced14.9 #296
69.1 #197Defensive rebound rate77.6 #1
7.3 #96Steals per game5.1 #328
5.2 #12Blocks per game4.1 #59
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Arkansas

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona88–109
  • Wvs High Point94–88
  • Wvs Hawai'i97–78
  • Wvs Vanderbilt86–75
  • Wvs Ole Miss93–90

A week or more of rest.

Michigan St

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn63–67
  • Wvs Louisville77–69
  • Wvs N Dakota St92–67
  • Lvs UCLA84–88
  • L@ Michigan80–90

A week or more of rest.