Utah State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 2:00 PM ETThe Pit · at New Mexico

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Utah State and New Mexico
USU	This season	UNM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USU 78–77 · win probability USU 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

USU 1, UNM 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNMBig

Three-pointers

USU hits 34.3% and allows 34.5%; UNM hits 35.6% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 40.8% and 41.9% of their shots

UNMSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: USU 32.7%, UNM 30.6%. Defensive: USU 67.2%, UNM 72.3%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: USU plays 68.5 a game (207th fastest), UNM 70.7 (87th). Faster games mean more points

UNMSmall

Home court

UNM at home. This season: UNM 0-0 at home, USU 0-0 away

USUSmall

USU offense vs UNM defense

Offense 53rd of 366 against a defense 103rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: USU 38.8, UNM 35.8. Allowed: USU 39.2, UNM 33.3

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: USU 56.3 and allows 49.7; UNM 53.5 and allows 49.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: USU 26%, UNM 42%. Transfers in: USU 6, UNM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

UNM offense vs USU defense

Offense 72nd of 366 against a defense 56th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

USU has played the 83rd-hardest schedule, UNM the 97th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: USU 15.1%, UNM 14.9%. Forced: USU 20.2%, UNM 19.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	USU -1.0	—
Total	—	154.8	—
Projected score	—	USU 77.9 · UNM 76.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USU -0.7	—
1H total	72.4	—
1H projected score	USU 36.5 · UNM 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU WWWWL	16-19	46%	4-8	—
UNM WWWWL	20-16	56%	11-8	—

Venue/role: USU away; UNM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU UUUOU	19-16	54%	28-7
UNM UOUUU	23-13	64%	25-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
UNM	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Utah State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs MONT	W95–83LO
Dec 9	@ BYU	L71–82LO
Dec 12	vs WIN	No recent meeting

New Mexico

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs NMSU	L68–76LO
Dec 12	vs SMC	L58–72LU
Dec 15	vs MER	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

USU 7–3 UNMUSU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · USU has won the last 2 meetings · USU 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 7, 2025-26	UNM 90 @ USU 94	USU -7.5	UNM W
Feb 4, 2025-26	USU 86 @ UNM 66	UNM -1.5	USU W
Feb 16, 2024-25	USU 79 @ UNM 82	UNM -5.5	USU W
Feb 1, 2024-25	UNM 82 @ USU 63	USU -4.5	UNM W
Mar 9, 2023-24	UNM 85 @ USU 87	USU -4.5	UNM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Utah State

35 games played

Straight up

28-7

80% wins

Against the spread

16-19

46% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-16

54% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-780%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1946%

W L W W W L L W L W L L W W L L L L W L W L L W W L L L L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1654%

U U U O O O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U U O O O U O O U O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsVCU	W 80-77	-2.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 12	vsWEB	W 83-73	-22.5	L −12.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 15	vsUTEP	W 75-51	-16.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 126
Nov 21	vsTULN	W 96-75	-8.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 171
Nov 23	vsDAV	W 94-60	-9.5	W +24.5	147.5	O 154
Nov 29	vsMTST	W 84-81	-17.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 165
Dec 4	@USF	L 61-74	+2.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 135
Dec 7	@CLT	W 79-53	-10.5	W +15.5	139.5	U 132
Dec 13	vsILST	W 83-78	-8.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 20	vsCSU	W 100-58	-10.5	W +31.5	147.5	O 158
Dec 30	@FRES	W 72-63	-14.5	L −5.5	154.5	U 135
Jan 3	vsSJSU	W 96-78	-22.5	L −4.5	151.5	O 174
Jan 6	@AF	W 99-62	-22.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 10	@BOIS	W 93-68	-1.5	W +23.5	149.5	O 161
Jan 14	vsNEV	W 71-62	-13.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 17	@GCU	L 74-84	-5.5	L −15.5	150.5	O 158
Jan 20	vsUNLV	L 76-86	-15.5	L −25.5	156.5	O 162
Jan 23	@CSU	W 65-61	-5.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 126
Jan 28	vsWYO	W 94-62	-13.5	W +18.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsSDSU	W 71-66	-6.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 4	@UNM	W 86-66	+1.5	W +21.5	156.5	U 152
Feb 7	@WYO	W 85-83	-9.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 168
Feb 10	vsFRES	W 91-78	-21.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 14	vsMEM	W 99-75	-13.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 174
Feb 18	vsBOIS	W 75-56	-9.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 131
Feb 21	@NEV	L 77-80	-5.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 25	@SDSU	L 72-89	-1.5	L −18.5	146.5	O 161
Feb 28	vsGCU	W 74-69	-9.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 3	@UNLV	L 65-92	-7.5	L −34.5	156.5	O 157
Mar 7	vsUNM	W 94-90	-7.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 184
Mar 12	vsUNLV	W 80-60	-8.5	W +11.5	156.5	U 140
Mar 13	vsNEV	W 79-66	-6.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 145
Mar 14	vsSDSU	W 73-62	-2.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 135
Mar 20	vsVILL	W 86-76	-1.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 162
Mar 22	vsARIZ	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VCU

W 80-77

+0.5

WEB

W 83-73

−12.5

UTEP

W 75-51

+7.5

TULN

W 96-75

+12.5

DAV

W 94-60

+24.5

MTST

W 84-81

−14.5

USF

L 61-74

−10.5

CLT

W 79-53

+15.5

ILST

W 83-78

−3.5

CSU

W 100-58

+31.5

FRES

W 72-63

−5.5

SJSU

W 96-78

−4.5

W 99-62

+14.5

BOIS

W 93-68

+23.5

NEV

W 71-62

−4.5

GCU

L 74-84

−15.5

UNLV

L 76-86

−25.5

CSU

W 65-61

−1.5

WYO

W 94-62

+18.5

SDSU

W 71-66

−1.5

UNM

W 86-66

+21.5

WYO

W 85-83

−7.5

FRES

W 91-78

−8.5

MEM

W 99-75

+10.5

BOIS

W 75-56

+9.5

NEV

L 77-80

−8.5

SDSU

L 72-89

−18.5

GCU

W 74-69

−4.5

UNLV

L 65-92

−34.5

UNM

W 94-90

−3.5

UNLV

W 80-60

+11.5

NEV

W 79-66

+6.5

SDSU

W 73-62

+8.5

VILL

W 86-76

+8.5

ARIZ

L 66-78

−0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 19avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VCU

W 80-77

−6.5

WEB

W 83-73

−0.5

UTEP

W 75-51

−23.5

TULN

W 96-75

+19.5

DAV

W 94-60

+6.5

MTST

W 84-81

+16.5

USF

L 61-74

−27.5

CLT

W 79-53

−7.5

ILST

W 83-78

+12.5

CSU

W 100-58

+10.5

FRES

W 72-63

−19.5

SJSU

W 96-78

+22.5

W 99-62

+21.5

BOIS

W 93-68

+11.5

NEV

W 71-62

−14.5

GCU

L 74-84

+7.5

UNLV

L 76-86

+5.5

CSU

W 65-61

−23.5

WYO

W 94-62

+7.5

SDSU

W 71-66

−10.5

UNM

W 86-66

−4.5

WYO

W 85-83

+18.5

FRES

W 91-78

+16.5

MEM

W 99-75

+18.5

BOIS

W 75-56

−20.5

NEV

L 77-80

+10.5

SDSU

L 72-89

+14.5

GCU

W 74-69

−4.5

UNLV

L 65-92

+0.5

UNM

W 94-90

+28.5

UNLV

W 80-60

−16.5

NEV

W 79-66

−0.5

SDSU

W 73-62

−10.5

VILL

W 86-76

+15.5

ARIZ

L 66-78

−9.5

over 19under 16avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

New Mexico

36 games played

Straight up

25-11

69% wins

Against the spread

20-16

56% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

23-13

64% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1169%

W W W L L W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L L W W W L W L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1656%

L W L L L W L W W W W L W W W W W L L W L L L W W L L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

23-1364%

U U O O O O O O O U O U U O O O O O O U O U O U O O U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsETAM	W 76-54	-22.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 8	vsUTA	W 74-56	-13.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsUCR	W 82-68	-19.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	@NMSU	L 68-76	-3.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 20	vsNEB	L 72-84	+8.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsMSST	W 80-78	+6.5	W +8.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 26	vsALST	W 93-87	-19.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 180
Dec 6	vsSCU	W 98-71	-1.5	W +25.5	153.5	O 169
Dec 10	@VCU	W 81-78	+8.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 159
Dec 14	vsFGCU	W 75-59	-15.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 134
Dec 20	vsSJSU	W 88-65	-16.5	W +6.5	152.5	O 153
Dec 30	@BOIS	L 53-62	+5.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 115
Jan 3	vsWYO	W 78-58	-7.5	W +12.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 6	@CSU	W 80-70	-1.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 10	@AF	W 91-49	-16.5	W +25.5	138.5	O 140
Jan 13	vsGCU	W 87-64	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 17	@SDSU	L 79-83	+5.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 21	vsFRES	W 83-74	-15.5	L −6.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsNEV	W 80-73	-8.5	L −1.5	150.5	O 153
Jan 27	@UNLV	W 89-61	-3.5	W +24.5	155.5	U 150
Jan 31	@SJSU	W 90-80	-15.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 170
Feb 4	vsUSU	L 66-86	-1.5	L −21.5	156.5	U 152
Feb 7	vsBOIS	L 90-91	-4.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 11	@GCU	W 70-64	+1.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 134
Feb 17	vsAF	W 98-61	-28.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 159
Feb 21	@FRES	W 80-78	-9.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 158
Feb 24	@NEV	L 60-67	+1.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 127
Feb 28	vsSDSU	W 81-76	-1.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 157
Mar 4	vsCSU	L 74-82	-8.5	L −16.5	150.5	O 156
Mar 7	@USU	L 90-94	+7.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 184
Mar 12	vsSJSU	W 93-77	-16.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsSDSU	L 62-64	+2.5	W +0.5	150.5	U 126
Mar 18	vsSHSU	W 107-83	-11.5	W +12.5	162.5	O 190
Mar 22	vsGW	W 86-61	-6.5	W +18.5	161.5	U 147
Mar 24	vsJOES	W 84-69	-10.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 153
Apr 2	vsTLSA	L 69-74	-2.5	L −7.5	161.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−0.5

UTA

W 74-56

+4.5

UCR

W 82-68

−5.5

NMSU

L 68-76

−11.5

NEB

L 72-84

−3.5

MSST

W 80-78

+8.5

ALST

W 93-87

−13.5

SCU

W 98-71

+25.5

VCU

W 81-78

+11.5

FGCU

W 75-59

+0.5

SJSU

W 88-65

+6.5

BOIS

L 53-62

−3.5

WYO

W 78-58

+12.5

CSU

W 80-70

+8.5

W 91-49

+25.5

GCU

W 87-64

+16.5

SDSU

L 79-83

+1.5

FRES

W 83-74

−6.5

NEV

W 80-73

−1.5

UNLV

W 89-61

+24.5

SJSU

W 90-80

−5.5

USU

L 66-86

−21.5

BOIS

L 90-91

−5.5

GCU

W 70-64

+7.5

W 98-61

+8.5

FRES

W 80-78

−7.5

NEV

L 60-67

−5.5

SDSU

W 81-76

+3.5

CSU

L 74-82

−16.5

USU

L 90-94

+3.5

SJSU

W 93-77

−0.5

SDSU

L 62-64

+0.5

SHSU

W 107-83

+12.5

W 86-61

+18.5

JOES

W 84-69

+4.5

TLSA

L 69-74

−7.5

covered 20didn’t cover 16avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−13.5

UTA

W 74-56

−15.5

UCR

W 82-68

+8.5

NMSU

L 68-76

+4.5

NEB

L 72-84

+4.5

MSST

W 80-78

+6.5

ALST

W 93-87

+31.5

SCU

W 98-71

+15.5

VCU

W 81-78

+1.5

FGCU

W 75-59

−25.5

SJSU

W 88-65

+0.5

BOIS

L 53-62

−31.5

WYO

W 78-58

−15.5

CSU

W 80-70

+6.5

W 91-49

+1.5

GCU

W 87-64

+4.5

SDSU

L 79-83

+13.5

FRES

W 83-74

+5.5

NEV

W 80-73

+2.5

UNLV

W 89-61

−5.5

SJSU

W 90-80

+21.5

USU

L 66-86

−4.5

BOIS

L 90-91

+28.5

GCU

W 70-64

−14.5

W 98-61

+10.5

FRES

W 80-78

+1.5

NEV

L 60-67

−21.5

SDSU

W 81-76

+6.5

CSU

L 74-82

+5.5

USU

L 90-94

+28.5

SJSU

W 93-77

+15.5

SDSU

L 62-64

−24.5

SHSU

W 107-83

+27.5

W 86-61

−14.5

JOES

W 84-69

−2.5

TLSA

L 69-74

−18.5

over 23under 13avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Utah State 2, New Mexico 2, even 1

Utah StateBetterNew Mexico

G A. Bates TR12.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.8 ast Score 62

UNMSmall

G J. Hall16.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90

G M. Falslev16.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 98

USUSmall

G U. Tenette10.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73

G D. Hall TR5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 49

Even

G C. Howell6 pts · 3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 54

G S. Callaghan TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 33

UNMBig

G H. Mayes TR11.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 93

F W. Hornseth TR11.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88

USUSmall

F T. Vahlberg Fasasi TR12.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72

Utah StateBetterNew Mexico

USU offense53rd of 366 · +3.3

Even

UNM defense103rd of 366 · -0.9

USU defense56th of 366 · +1.4

Even

UNM offense72nd of 366 · +1.6

Backcourt+2.9 · 4 players

UNMSmall

Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt+2.6 · 1 player

USUSmall

Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player

Bench+3.8 · 3 players

USUSmall

Bench+0.9 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestUSU betterUNM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Utah State

Guards

A. Bates34 min · TRM. Falslev33 minD. Hall28 min · TRS. Callaghan28 min · TRB. BoeNewA. ReiserNew

Forwards

W. Hornseth27 min · TRC. Turnbull21 min · TRK. Templin19 minC. Mulholland17 min · TRK. TosiNew

Centers

S. FeltsNewB. RobertsNew

New Mexico

Guards

J. Hall31 minU. Tenette28 minC. Howell25 minH. Mayes24 min · TRD. HallNew

Forwards

T. Vahlberg Fasasi27 min · TRR. Petraitis17 min · TRF. GraniNewI. SuljanovicNewN. MuriithiNewB. SchuchNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

USU81.3 #43

UNM80.8 #52

Points per possession

USU1.19 #24

UNM1.14 #70

Pace (possessions)

USU68.5 #207

UNM70.7 #87

Shooting

Effective FG%

USU56.3 #18

UNM53.5 #82

3-point %

USU34.3 #155

UNM35.6 #83

3-point attempt rate

USU40.8 #152

UNM41.9 #136

Free throw rate

USU38.8 #83

UNM35.8 #160

Possessions

Turnover rate

USU15.1 #72

UNM14.9 #59

Offensive rebound rate

USU32.7 #97

UNM30.6 #176

Assists per game

USU17.1 #21

UNM14.8 #104

Defense

Points allowed

USU71.2 #78

UNM71.6 #96

Points allowed per possession

USU1.04 #72

UNM1.01 #36

Opponent effective FG%

USU49.7 #87

UNM49.5 #84

Opponent 3-point %

USU34.5 #222

UNM30.5 #20

Turnovers forced

USU20.2 #18

UNM19.0 #50

Defensive rebound rate

USU67.2 #290

UNM72.3 #57

Steals per game

USU8.5 #17

UNM7.9 #43

Blocks per game

USU2.9 #252

UNM2.7 #274

USU		UNM
Scoring
81.3 #43	Points per game	80.8 #52
1.19 #24	Points per possession	1.14 #70
68.5 #207	Pace (possessions)	70.7 #87
Shooting
56.3 #18	Effective FG%	53.5 #82
34.3 #155	3-point %	35.6 #83
40.8 #152	3-point attempt rate	41.9 #136
38.8 #83	Free throw rate	35.8 #160
Possessions
15.1 #72	Turnover rate	14.9 #59
32.7 #97	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #176
17.1 #21	Assists per game	14.8 #104
Defense
71.2 #78	Points allowed	71.6 #96
1.04 #72	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #36
49.7 #87	Opponent effective FG%	49.5 #84
34.5 #222	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #20
20.2 #18	Turnovers forced	19.0 #50
67.2 #290	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #57
8.5 #17	Steals per game	7.9 #43
2.9 #252	Blocks per game	2.7 #274

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Utah State

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arizona66–78
Wvs Villanova86–76
Wvs San Diego St73–62
Wvs Nevada79–66
Wvs UNLV80–60

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico

25-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulsa69–74
Wvs Saint Joseph's84–69
Wvs G Washington86–61
Wvs Sam Houston107–83
Lvs San Diego St62–64

A week or more of rest.

Utah State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Utah State

New Mexico

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Utah State

New Mexico