Milwaukee Panthers at Oregon State Beavers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 2:00 PM ETGill Coliseum · at Oregon St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Milwaukee and Oregon St
MILW	This season	ORST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORST 83–69 · win probability ORST 90%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORST has more of the edges

MILW 2, ORST 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ORSTBig

ORST offense vs MILW defense

Offense 95th of 366 against a defense 297th, on the model’s ratings

ORSTBig

Three-pointers

MILW hits 32.3% and allows 36.5%; ORST hits 35.0% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 38.1% and 44.3% of their shots

MILWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MILW 33.0%, ORST 26.8%. Defensive: MILW 70.8%, ORST 67.9%

ORSTBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MILW 32.1, ORST 43.1. Allowed: MILW 35.9, ORST 35.1

ORSTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MILW 49.9 and allows 55.5; ORST 50.5 and allows 50.3

MILWSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MILW 15.3%, ORST 17.7%. Forced: MILW 15.8%, ORST 15.3%

Context

Schedule so far

MILW has played the 191st-hardest schedule, ORST the 120th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ORSTSmall

MILW offense vs ORST defense

Offense 180th of 366 against a defense 109th, on the model’s ratings

ORSTSmall

Home court

ORST at home. This season: ORST 0-0 at home, MILW 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: MILW plays 69.1 a game (174th fastest), ORST 67.2 (272nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MILW 40%, ORST 17%. Transfers in: MILW 3, ORST 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ORST -14.7	—
Total	—	151.8	—
Projected score	—	MILW 68.6 · ORST 83.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORST -8.6	—
1H total	71.0	—
1H projected score	MILW 31.2 · ORST 39.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MILW WLLWL	11-20	35%	5-12	—
ORST WWLWW	16-17	48%	9-8	—

Venue/role: MILW away; ORST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MILW OOUUU	14-17	45%	11-20
ORST OOOOU	19-14	58%	17-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILW	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
ORST	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Milwaukee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	vs WRST	L69–76LU
Dec 5	@ NIU	No recent meeting
Dec 8	@ SDST	W88–87WO

Oregon St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs USM	No recent meeting
Dec 11	vs LAM	No recent meeting
Dec 14	vs ASU	W78–75WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Milwaukee

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2035%

L L W L W L L L L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O O O U U O U U O U U U U O U O U O O U U O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@IU	L 70-101	+24.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 14	@TTU	L 63-80	+27.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 22	@WICH	L 58-75	+10.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AKR	L 81-105	+12.5	L −11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsRMU	W 74-72	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 14	vsINST	L 68-70	-2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsSDST	W 88-87	+1.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 21	@CLE	W 81-71	-6.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsPFW	W 77-55	-3.5	W +18.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 30	@WIS	L 60-80	+19.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 140
Jan 1	@WRST	L 70-76	+3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 146
Jan 5	@GB	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 9	vsNKU	L 67-85	-1.5	L −19.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 11	vsIUIN	W 95-83	-8.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsOAK	L 60-73	+2.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 133
Jan 18	@PFW	L 82-100	+3.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 182
Jan 22	@RMU	L 76-88	+4.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 24	@YSU	W 65-64	+6.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsWRST	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 1	vsCLE	L 88-90	-9.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 178
Feb 4	vsDETM	L 63-76	-6.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 139
Feb 7	@NKU	L 62-67	+6.5	W +1.5	156.5	U 129
Feb 10	@IUIN	W 92-88	-2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 15	vsGB	W 75-72	-2.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 20	@DETM	L 86-91	-1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 22	@OAK	L 70-81	+5.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 151
Feb 25	vsYSU	W 78-65	+1.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 4	@DETM	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

L 70-101

−6.5

TTU

L 63-80

+10.5

WICH

L 58-75

−6.5

AKR

L 81-105

−11.5

RMU

W 74-72

−2.5

INST

L 68-70

−4.5

SDST

W 88-87

+2.5

CLE

W 81-71

+3.5

PFW

W 77-55

+18.5

WIS

L 60-80

−0.5

WRST

L 70-76

−2.5

L 76-79

−6.5

NKU

L 67-85

−19.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+3.5

OAK

L 60-73

−10.5

PFW

L 82-100

−14.5

RMU

L 76-88

−7.5

YSU

W 65-64

+7.5

WRST

L 69-76

−4.5

CLE

L 88-90

−11.5

DETM

L 63-76

−19.5

NKU

L 62-67

+1.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+1.5

W 75-72

+0.5

DETM

L 86-91

−6.5

OAK

L 70-81

−5.5

YSU

W 78-65

+14.5

DETM

L 63-84

−19.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

L 70-101

+5.5

TTU

L 63-80

−22.5

WICH

L 58-75

−25.5

AKR

L 81-105

+19.5

RMU

W 74-72

−7.5

INST

L 68-70

−21.5

SDST

W 88-87

+23.5

CLE

W 81-71

−8.5

PFW

W 77-55

−24.5

WIS

L 60-80

−17.5

WRST

L 70-76

−1.5

L 76-79

+10.5

NKU

L 67-85

−5.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+12.5

OAK

L 60-73

−33.5

PFW

L 82-100

+33.5

RMU

L 76-88

+11.5

YSU

W 65-64

−22.5

WRST

L 69-76

−6.5

CLE

L 88-90

+17.5

DETM

L 63-76

−16.5

NKU

L 62-67

−27.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+21.5

W 75-72

+1.5

DETM

L 86-91

+23.5

OAK

L 70-81

−8.5

YSU

W 78-65

−4.5

DETM

L 63-84

−4.5

over 14under 17avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon St

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

W W W L L L L L W W W L W L W L L W L W L L W W W L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

L L L W L L L L W W W L W L W L L W L W L L W W W L W L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1458%

U O U O O O U O U O U O O O U U O U O O O U U O U U O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNDSU	W 67-65	-9.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 7	vsUIC	W 76-73	-6.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 149
Nov 12	vsUNT	W 66-64	-3.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 17	@ORE	L 75-87	+13.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsEVAN	L 69-73	-6.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 22	vsIONA	L 84-91	-3.5	L −10.5	157.5	O 175
Nov 24	vsMASS	L 65-73	-3.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 138
Nov 29	vsCBU	L 69-75	-1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 144
Dec 3	vsUVM	W 80-58	-3.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 6	vsSUU	W 81-70	-10.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 13	vsMTST	W 67-57	-1.5	W +8.5	140.5	U 124
Dec 17	vsSHSU	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 21	@ASU	W 78-75	+12.5	W +15.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 28	vsSCU	L 64-102	+7.5	L −30.5	150.5	O 166
Dec 30	vsSF	W 70-62	+4.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 2	@PAC	L 53-84	+4.5	L −26.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 4	@WSU	L 67-81	+6.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 8	vsSEA	W 68-55	+4.5	W +17.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 10	@PORT	L 76-82	+2.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 14	vsLMU	W 76-70	+1.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsPAC	L 64-81	-1.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 145
Jan 21	@SMC	L 51-81	+19.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 28	@LMU	W 72-69	+5.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 31	@USD	W 78-76	+3.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 154
Feb 4	vsWSU	W 74-64	+1.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 7	vsGONZ	L 61-81	+19.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 12	@SF	W 90-63	+8.5	W +35.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 15	@SEA	L 50-60	+6.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 110
Feb 21	vsPEPP	W 83-73	-9.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 25	vsUSD	W 92-82	-6.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 174
Feb 28	@SCU	L 72-93	+15.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 165
Mar 8	vsSF	W 78-77	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 155
Mar 9	vsGONZ	L 56-65	+20.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−7.5

UIC

W 76-73

−3.5

UNT

W 66-64

−1.5

ORE

L 75-87

+1.5

EVAN

L 69-73

−10.5

IONA

L 84-91

−10.5

MASS

L 65-73

−11.5

CBU

L 69-75

−7.5

UVM

W 80-58

+18.5

SUU

W 81-70

+0.5

MTST

W 67-57

+8.5

SHSU

L 75-85

−13.5

ASU

W 78-75

+15.5

SCU

L 64-102

−30.5

W 70-62

+12.5

PAC

L 53-84

−26.5

WSU

L 67-81

−7.5

SEA

W 68-55

+17.5

PORT

L 76-82

−3.5

LMU

W 76-70

+7.5

PAC

L 64-81

−18.5

SMC

L 51-81

−10.5

LMU

W 72-69

+8.5

USD

W 78-76

+5.5

WSU

W 74-64

+11.5

GONZ

L 61-81

−0.5

W 90-63

+35.5

SEA

L 50-60

−3.5

PEPP

W 83-73

+0.5

USD

W 92-82

+3.5

SCU

L 72-93

−5.5

W 78-77

+4.5

GONZ

L 56-65

+11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−12.5

UIC

W 76-73

+2.5

UNT

W 66-64

−4.5

ORE

L 75-87

+20.5

EVAN

L 69-73

+5.5

IONA

L 84-91

+17.5

MASS

L 65-73

−11.5

CBU

L 69-75

+6.5

UVM

W 80-58

−5.5

SUU

W 81-70

+4.5

MTST

W 67-57

−16.5

SHSU

L 75-85

+6.5

ASU

W 78-75

+5.5

SCU

L 64-102

+15.5

W 70-62

−12.5

PAC

L 53-84

−0.5

WSU

L 67-81

+7.5

SEA

W 68-55

−16.5

PORT

L 76-82

+12.5

LMU

W 76-70

+5.5

PAC

L 64-81

+5.5

SMC

L 51-81

−10.5

LMU

W 72-69

−0.5

USD

W 78-76

+3.5

WSU

W 74-64

−9.5

GONZ

L 61-81

−7.5

W 90-63

+12.5

SEA

L 50-60

−26.5

PEPP

W 83-73

+7.5

USD

W 92-82

+29.5

SCU

L 72-93

+11.5

W 78-77

+10.5

GONZ

L 56-65

−24.5

over 19under 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Milwaukee 2, Oregon St 2, even 1

MilwaukeeBetterOregon St

G I. Dorceus5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 14

ORSTBig

G J. Lake13.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.2 ast Score 87

G T. Norman TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55

ORSTBig

G D. Freitag TR20 pts · 4.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 93

F D. Jovanovich12.3 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 78

MILWSmall

G L. Smiley TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 52

F C. Jackson9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

MILWSmall

F J. Rasmussen TR13 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 43

F S. Murchison0.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Gory TR13.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 2 ast Score 80

MilwaukeeBetterOregon St

MILW offense180th of 366 · -5.5

ORSTSmall

ORST defense109th of 366 · -1.1

MILW defense297th of 366 · -7.6

ORSTBig

ORST offense95th of 366 · -0.7

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

ORSTBig

Backcourt+5.7 · 3 players

Frontcourt+1.9 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+1.1 · 2 players

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

ORSTSmall

Bench+1.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMILW betterORST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Milwaukee

Guards

I. Dorceus22 minT. Norman8 min · TRJ. Hansen1 min · TRJ. LovelaceNewD. OmwenoNewA. WomackNew

Forwards

D. Jovanovich31 minC. Jackson23 minS. Murchison5 minA. Amadou3 min · TRN. MalosaNewB. AkoroNew

Oregon St

Guards

J. Lake34 minD. Freitag34 min · TRL. Smiley21 min · TRC. Johnson16 min · TRS. Blakely Drummond1 min · TRJ. LakeNew

Forwards

J. Rasmussen32 min · TRD. Gory30 min · TRP. Pinnis4 min · TRK. TreacherNew

Centers

D. Evans9 min · TRX. Staton5 min · TRY. AklogNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MILW74.7 #173

ORST71.1 #264

Points per possession

MILW1.09 #172

ORST1.06 #232

Pace (possessions)

MILW69.1 #174

ORST67.2 #272

Shooting

Effective FG%

MILW49.9 #242

ORST50.5 #216

3-point %

MILW32.3 #266

ORST35.0 #115

3-point attempt rate

MILW38.1 #212

ORST44.3 #84

Free throw rate

MILW32.1 #256

ORST43.1 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

MILW15.3 #85

ORST17.7 #254

Offensive rebound rate

MILW33.0 #88

ORST26.8 #303

Assists per game

MILW12.9 #220

ORST13.8 #159

Defense

Points allowed

MILW79.9 #317

ORST74.2 #159

Points allowed per possession

MILW1.15 #328

ORST1.10 #223

Opponent effective FG%

MILW55.5 #340

ORST50.3 #119

Opponent 3-point %

MILW36.5 #329

ORST32.9 #116

Turnovers forced

MILW15.8 #232

ORST15.3 #264

Defensive rebound rate

MILW70.8 #121

ORST67.9 #265

Steals per game

MILW6.5 #176

ORST5.5 #293

Blocks per game

MILW3.0 #230

ORST3.7 #115

MILW		ORST
Scoring
74.7 #173	Points per game	71.1 #264
1.09 #172	Points per possession	1.06 #232
69.1 #174	Pace (possessions)	67.2 #272
Shooting
49.9 #242	Effective FG%	50.5 #216
32.3 #266	3-point %	35.0 #115
38.1 #212	3-point attempt rate	44.3 #84
32.1 #256	Free throw rate	43.1 #20
Possessions
15.3 #85	Turnover rate	17.7 #254
33.0 #88	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #303
12.9 #220	Assists per game	13.8 #159
Defense
79.9 #317	Points allowed	74.2 #159
1.15 #328	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #223
55.5 #340	Opponent effective FG%	50.3 #119
36.5 #329	Opponent 3-point %	32.9 #116
15.8 #232	Turnovers forced	15.3 #264
70.8 #121	Defensive rebound rate	67.9 #265
6.5 #176	Steals per game	5.5 #293
3.0 #230	Blocks per game	3.7 #115

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Milwaukee

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Detroit Mercy63–84
Wvs Youngstown St78–65
L@ Oakland70–81
L@ Detroit Mercy86–91
Wvs Green Bay75–72

A week or more of rest.

Oregon St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gonzaga56–65
Wvs San Francisco78–77
L@ Santa Clara72–93
Wvs San Diego92–82
Wvs Pepperdine83–73

A week or more of rest.

Milwaukee Panthers at Oregon State Beavers

What could decide it: ORST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Milwaukee

Oregon St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Milwaukee

Oregon St