Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Oregon State Beavers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 8:30 PM ETGill Coliseum · at Oregon St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Southern Miss and Oregon St
USM	This season	ORST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORST 82–69 · win probability ORST 88%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORST has more of the edges

USM 2, ORST 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

USMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: USM 32.5%, ORST 26.8%. Defensive: USM 71.2%, ORST 67.9%

ORSTBig

Three-pointers

USM hits 28.9% and allows 34.5%; ORST hits 35.0% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 28.7% and 44.3% of their shots

ORSTBig

ORST offense vs USM defense

Offense 95th of 366 against a defense 239th, on the model’s ratings

ORSTSmall

USM offense vs ORST defense

Offense 203rd of 366 against a defense 109th, on the model’s ratings

ORSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: USM 43.2, ORST 43.1. Allowed: USM 43.6, ORST 35.1

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: USM plays 70.1 a game (113th fastest), ORST 67.2 (272nd). Faster games mean more points

ORSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: USM 49.0 and allows 51.4; ORST 50.5 and allows 50.3

Context

Schedule so far

USM has played the 184th-hardest schedule, ORST the 120th. A record against a soft schedule means less

USMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: USM 18.4%, ORST 17.7%. Forced: USM 17.8%, ORST 15.3%

ORSTSmall

Home court

ORST at home. This season: ORST 0-0 at home, USM 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: USM 23%, ORST 17%. Transfers in: USM 3, ORST 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ORST -13.5	—
Total	—	150.4	—
Projected score	—	USM 68.5 · ORST 81.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORST -7.9	—
1H total	70.3	—
1H projected score	USM 31.2 · ORST 39.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM WWWWL	17-16	52%	7-8	—
ORST WWLWW	16-17	48%	9-8	—

Venue/role: USM away; ORST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM UOOOO	20-13	61%	17-16
ORST OOOOU	19-14	58%	17-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
ORST	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	@ MCN	L48–67LU

Oregon St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 11	vs LAM	No recent meeting
Dec 14	vs ASU	W78–75WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Miss

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-13

61% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

L L L W W W L W L W L L W W W W L L L L L W L W L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

L W L L W W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L L W W W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1361%

O O U O U O O U U U O U O O O U O O U O U U O U O U O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BUF	L 79-85	+3.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 9	@SC	L 79-83	+17.5	W +13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 13	@GRAM	L 70-75	+2.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsUNF	W 92-83	-9.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 175
Nov 23	vsUTM	W 70-60	+1.5	W +11.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 3	@RAD	W 82-75	+3.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 157
Dec 6	@MIA	L 64-88	+19.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 152
Dec 8	vsGRAM	W 68-60	-8.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsMISS	L 67-71	+12.5	W +8.5	138.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsUL	W 62-54	-11.5	L −3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	vsARST	L 86-93	+1.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 179
Dec 29	@LSU	L 62-90	+21.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 1	@ULM	W 87-73	-9.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 3	@UL	W 74-67	-3.5	W +3.5	129.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsTXST	W 80-70	-2.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsULM	W 70-60	-14.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 14	@TROY	L 65-91	+8.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 156
Jan 17	@TXST	L 67-74	+2.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 141
Jan 22	@GAST	L 62-69	+1.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 131
Jan 24	@CCU	L 67-85	+2.5	L −15.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsAPP	L 63-70	+1.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 133
Jan 31	vsJMU	W 73-65	-1.5	W +6.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 4	@MRSH	L 77-81	+10.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 7	vsKENT	W 66-65	+4.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 131
Feb 12	vsUSA	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	135.5	O 162
Feb 14	vsTROY	W 69-65	+5.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsODU	W 86-81	-4.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 24	@ARST	L 84-89	+9.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 173
Feb 27	@USA	W 68-55	+4.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 123
Mar 5	vsJMU	W 86-80	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 166
Mar 6	vsTXST	W 81-77	+1.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 158
Mar 7	vsAPP	W 86-73	+4.5	W +17.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 8	vsTROY	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

−2.5

L 79-83

+13.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−2.5

UNF

W 92-83

−0.5

UTM

W 70-60

+11.5

RAD

W 82-75

+10.5

MIA

L 64-88

−4.5

GRAM

W 68-60

−0.5

MISS

L 67-71

+8.5

W 62-54

−3.5

ARST

L 86-93

−5.5

LSU

L 62-90

−6.5

ULM

W 87-73

+4.5

W 74-67

+3.5

TXST

W 80-70

+7.5

ULM

W 70-60

−4.5

TROY

L 65-91

−17.5

TXST

L 67-74

−4.5

GAST

L 62-69

−5.5

CCU

L 67-85

−15.5

APP

L 63-70

−5.5

JMU

W 73-65

+6.5

MRSH

L 77-81

+6.5

KENT

W 66-65

+5.5

USA

L 78-84

−7.5

TROY

W 69-65

+9.5

ODU

W 86-81

+0.5

ARST

L 84-89

+4.5

USA

W 68-55

+17.5

JMU

W 86-80

+8.5

TXST

W 81-77

+5.5

APP

W 86-73

+17.5

TROY

L 70-78

−2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

+10.5

L 79-83

+14.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−3.5

UNF

W 92-83

+20.5

UTM

W 70-60

−16.5

RAD

W 82-75

+4.5

MIA

L 64-88

+6.5

GRAM

W 68-60

−14.5

MISS

L 67-71

−0.5

W 62-54

−16.5

ARST

L 86-93

+23.5

LSU

L 62-90

−2.5

ULM

W 87-73

+7.5

W 74-67

+11.5

TXST

W 80-70

+5.5

ULM

W 70-60

−25.5

TROY

L 65-91

+10.5

TXST

L 67-74

+0.5

GAST

L 62-69

−13.5

CCU

L 67-85

+10.5

APP

L 63-70

−1.5

JMU

W 73-65

−5.5

MRSH

L 77-81

+9.5

KENT

W 66-65

−19.5

USA

L 78-84

+26.5

TROY

W 69-65

−10.5

ODU

W 86-81

+19.5

ARST

L 84-89

+14.5

USA

W 68-55

−18.5

JMU

W 86-80

+22.5

TXST

W 81-77

+17.5

APP

W 86-73

+21.5

TROY

L 70-78

+5.5

over 20under 13avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon St

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

W W W L L L L L W W W L W L W L L W L W L L W W W L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

L L L W L L L L W W W L W L W L L W L W L L W W W L W L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1458%

U O U O O O U O U O U O O O U U O U O O O U U O U U O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNDSU	W 67-65	-9.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 7	vsUIC	W 76-73	-6.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 149
Nov 12	vsUNT	W 66-64	-3.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 17	@ORE	L 75-87	+13.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsEVAN	L 69-73	-6.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 22	vsIONA	L 84-91	-3.5	L −10.5	157.5	O 175
Nov 24	vsMASS	L 65-73	-3.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 138
Nov 29	vsCBU	L 69-75	-1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 144
Dec 3	vsUVM	W 80-58	-3.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 6	vsSUU	W 81-70	-10.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 13	vsMTST	W 67-57	-1.5	W +8.5	140.5	U 124
Dec 17	vsSHSU	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 21	@ASU	W 78-75	+12.5	W +15.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 28	vsSCU	L 64-102	+7.5	L −30.5	150.5	O 166
Dec 30	vsSF	W 70-62	+4.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 2	@PAC	L 53-84	+4.5	L −26.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 4	@WSU	L 67-81	+6.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 8	vsSEA	W 68-55	+4.5	W +17.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 10	@PORT	L 76-82	+2.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 14	vsLMU	W 76-70	+1.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsPAC	L 64-81	-1.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 145
Jan 21	@SMC	L 51-81	+19.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 28	@LMU	W 72-69	+5.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 31	@USD	W 78-76	+3.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 154
Feb 4	vsWSU	W 74-64	+1.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 7	vsGONZ	L 61-81	+19.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 12	@SF	W 90-63	+8.5	W +35.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 15	@SEA	L 50-60	+6.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 110
Feb 21	vsPEPP	W 83-73	-9.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 25	vsUSD	W 92-82	-6.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 174
Feb 28	@SCU	L 72-93	+15.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 165
Mar 8	vsSF	W 78-77	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 155
Mar 9	vsGONZ	L 56-65	+20.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−7.5

UIC

W 76-73

−3.5

UNT

W 66-64

−1.5

ORE

L 75-87

+1.5

EVAN

L 69-73

−10.5

IONA

L 84-91

−10.5

MASS

L 65-73

−11.5

CBU

L 69-75

−7.5

UVM

W 80-58

+18.5

SUU

W 81-70

+0.5

MTST

W 67-57

+8.5

SHSU

L 75-85

−13.5

ASU

W 78-75

+15.5

SCU

L 64-102

−30.5

W 70-62

+12.5

PAC

L 53-84

−26.5

WSU

L 67-81

−7.5

SEA

W 68-55

+17.5

PORT

L 76-82

−3.5

LMU

W 76-70

+7.5

PAC

L 64-81

−18.5

SMC

L 51-81

−10.5

LMU

W 72-69

+8.5

USD

W 78-76

+5.5

WSU

W 74-64

+11.5

GONZ

L 61-81

−0.5

W 90-63

+35.5

SEA

L 50-60

−3.5

PEPP

W 83-73

+0.5

USD

W 92-82

+3.5

SCU

L 72-93

−5.5

W 78-77

+4.5

GONZ

L 56-65

+11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−12.5

UIC

W 76-73

+2.5

UNT

W 66-64

−4.5

ORE

L 75-87

+20.5

EVAN

L 69-73

+5.5

IONA

L 84-91

+17.5

MASS

L 65-73

−11.5

CBU

L 69-75

+6.5

UVM

W 80-58

−5.5

SUU

W 81-70

+4.5

MTST

W 67-57

−16.5

SHSU

L 75-85

+6.5

ASU

W 78-75

+5.5

SCU

L 64-102

+15.5

W 70-62

−12.5

PAC

L 53-84

−0.5

WSU

L 67-81

+7.5

SEA

W 68-55

−16.5

PORT

L 76-82

+12.5

LMU

W 76-70

+5.5

PAC

L 64-81

+5.5

SMC

L 51-81

−10.5

LMU

W 72-69

−0.5

USD

W 78-76

+3.5

WSU

W 74-64

−9.5

GONZ

L 61-81

−7.5

W 90-63

+12.5

SEA

L 50-60

−26.5

PEPP

W 83-73

+7.5

USD

W 92-82

+29.5

SCU

L 72-93

+11.5

W 78-77

+10.5

GONZ

L 56-65

−24.5

over 19under 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oregon St has the better starters

Position by position: Southern Miss 0, Oregon St 3, even 2

Southern MissBetterOregon St

G J. Gaines-Wyatt TR11.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

ORSTSmall

G J. Lake13.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.2 ast Score 87

G I. Taveras15.4 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 90

Even

G D. Freitag TR20 pts · 4.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 93

G B. Carruth2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 6

ORSTBig

G L. Smiley TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 52

F C. Wallace TR12.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 53

Even

F J. Rasmussen TR13 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 43

F M. Overstreet TR2.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.3 ast Score 39

ORSTBig

F D. Gory TR13.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 2 ast Score 80

Southern MissBetterOregon St

USM offense203rd of 366 · -6.3

ORSTSmall

ORST defense109th of 366 · -1.1

USM defense239th of 366 · -6.3

ORSTBig

ORST offense95th of 366 · -0.7

Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players

ORSTBig

Backcourt+5.7 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players

ORSTSmall

Frontcourt+1.1 · 2 players

Bench-0.9 · 1 player

ORSTSmall

Bench+1.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUSM betterORST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Southern Miss

Guards

J. Gaines-Wyatt27 min · TRI. Taveras27 minB. Carruth12 minB. WestonNewA. IgiedeNewC. CereseNew

Forwards

C. Wallace29 min · TRM. Overstreet10 min · TRM. MontanoNew

Centers

F. Diagne6 minM. BlankNew

Oregon St

Guards

J. Lake34 minD. Freitag34 min · TRL. Smiley21 min · TRC. Johnson16 min · TRS. Blakely Drummond1 min · TRJ. LakeNew

Forwards

J. Rasmussen32 min · TRD. Gory30 min · TRP. Pinnis4 min · TRK. TreacherNew

Centers

D. Evans9 min · TRX. Staton5 min · TRY. AklogNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

USM73.9 #197

ORST71.1 #264

Points per possession

USM1.05 #242

ORST1.06 #232

Pace (possessions)

USM70.1 #113

ORST67.2 #272

Shooting

Effective FG%

USM49.0 #289

ORST50.5 #216

3-point %

USM28.9 #355

ORST35.0 #115

3-point attempt rate

USM28.7 #358

ORST44.3 #84

Free throw rate

USM43.2 #18

ORST43.1 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

USM18.4 #290

ORST17.7 #254

Offensive rebound rate

USM32.5 #103

ORST26.8 #303

Assists per game

USM11.2 #330

ORST13.8 #159

Defense

Points allowed

USM74.8 #183

ORST74.2 #159

Points allowed per possession

USM1.07 #127

ORST1.10 #223

Opponent effective FG%

USM51.4 #177

ORST50.3 #119

Opponent 3-point %

USM34.5 #217

ORST32.9 #116

Turnovers forced

USM17.8 #109

ORST15.3 #264

Defensive rebound rate

USM71.2 #97

ORST67.9 #265

Steals per game

USM7.3 #98

ORST5.5 #293

Blocks per game

USM3.6 #127

ORST3.7 #115

USM		ORST
Scoring
73.9 #197	Points per game	71.1 #264
1.05 #242	Points per possession	1.06 #232
70.1 #113	Pace (possessions)	67.2 #272
Shooting
49.0 #289	Effective FG%	50.5 #216
28.9 #355	3-point %	35.0 #115
28.7 #358	3-point attempt rate	44.3 #84
43.2 #18	Free throw rate	43.1 #20
Possessions
18.4 #290	Turnover rate	17.7 #254
32.5 #103	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #303
11.2 #330	Assists per game	13.8 #159
Defense
74.8 #183	Points allowed	74.2 #159
1.07 #127	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #223
51.4 #177	Opponent effective FG%	50.3 #119
34.5 #217	Opponent 3-point %	32.9 #116
17.8 #109	Turnovers forced	15.3 #264
71.2 #97	Defensive rebound rate	67.9 #265
7.3 #98	Steals per game	5.5 #293
3.6 #127	Blocks per game	3.7 #115

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Miss

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Troy70–78
Wvs App State86–73
Wvs Texas St81–77
Wvs James Madison86–80
W@ South Alabama68–55

A week or more of rest.

Oregon St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gonzaga56–65
Wvs San Francisco78–77
L@ Santa Clara72–93
Wvs San Diego92–82
Wvs Pepperdine83–73

A week or more of rest.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Oregon State Beavers

What could decide it: ORST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Miss

Oregon St

Oregon St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Southern Miss

Oregon St