1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 29
  3. UND @ GB
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 29

North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Green Bay Phoenix

Resch Center · at Green Bay
#336UNDNorth Dakota
@
#225GBGreen Bay
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNDThis seasonGB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GB 80–70 · win probability GB 82%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GB has more of the edges

UND 1, GB 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNDBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UND 14.1%, GB 15.9%. Forced: UND 19.3%, GB 13.2%
GBBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UND 49.5 and allows 56.5; GB 54.9 and allows 53.6
GBBig
GB offense vs UND defense
Offense 219th of 366 against a defense 353rd, on the model’s ratings
GBBig
Three-pointers
UND hits 32.7% and allows 37.1%; GB hits 36.4% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 40.6% and 37.3% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UND plays 69.7 a game (133rd fastest), GB 65.2 (339th). Faster games mean more points
GBSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UND 37.9, GB 41.6. Allowed: UND 43.8, GB 37.4
GBSmall
UND offense vs GB defense
Offense 304th of 366 against a defense 227th, on the model’s ratings
GBSmall
Home court
GB at home. This season: GB 0-0 at home, UND 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UND 27.4%, GB 25.1%. Defensive: UND 67.6%, GB 70.4%
Context
Schedule so far
UND has played the 293rd-hardest schedule, GB the 255th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UND 24%, GB 40%. Transfers in: UND 2, GB 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GB -10.5—
Total—149.4—
Projected score—UND 69.5 · GB 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGB -6.1—
1H total69.9—
1H projected scoreUND 31.9 · GB 38—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Green Bay has the better starters

Position by position: North Dakota 0, Green Bay 3, even 2
North DakotaBetterGreen Bay
G Z. Kraft7.7 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 23
GBBig
G O. Lovejoy TR16 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 85
G S. Hincapie TR4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11
GBSmall
G L. Thomas4.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31
G T. Wagner TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Wrecke2.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 8
F K. Ouse0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F M. Hall13.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 49
C J. Jones2.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 1
GBBig
F A. Hadaway TR14.5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 71
North DakotaBetterGreen Bay
UND offense304th of 366 · -9.5
GBSmall
GB defense227th of 366 · -6.0
UND defense353rd of 366 · -9.9
GBBig
GB offense219th of 366 · -6.7
Backcourt-4.8 · 3 players
GBBig
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-4.5 · 2 players
GBBig
Frontcourt+0.7 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-3.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUND betterGB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Dakota
Guards
Z. Kraft25 minS. Hincapie16 min · TRT. Wagner7 min · TRL. WinkelNewZ. ParksNewJ. MooreNew
Forwards
K. Ouse6 minA. RadojevicNewJ. ThomasNewD. ElyNew
Centers
J. Jones19 min
Green Bay
Guards
O. Lovejoy31 min · TRL. Thomas12 minM. Wrecke11 minK. Van Kauwenberg10 minB. Fitzgerald1 minS. ErhartNew
Forwards
M. Hall35 minA. Hadaway33 min · TRI. Sutherland10 min · TRH. GruetzmacherNewT. ColnaricNew
Centers
M. Cicic11 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNDGB
Scoring
74.2 #187Points per game73.9 #201
1.07 #214Points per possession1.13 #83
69.7 #133Pace (possessions)65.2 #339
Shooting
49.5 #272Effective FG%54.9 #41
32.7 #2463-point %36.4 #42
40.6 #1553-point attempt rate37.3 #224
37.9 #106Free throw rate41.6 #36
Possessions
14.1 #27Turnover rate15.9 #133
27.4 #284Offensive rebound rate25.1 #339
10.8 #343Assists per game13.7 #172
Defense
79.6 #310Points allowed75.9 #215
1.14 #306Points allowed per possession1.17 #338
56.5 #353Opponent effective FG%53.6 #287
37.1 #345Opponent 3-point %36.3 #316
19.3 #36Turnovers forced13.2 #350
67.6 #276Defensive rebound rate70.4 #140
7.9 #49Steals per game4.2 #361
2.5 #307Blocks per game2.7 #282
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Dakota

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Dakota St62–70
  • Wvs St Thomas67–66
  • Wvs Denver83–67
  • L@ N Dakota St63–96
  • L@ S Dakota St83–91

A week or more of rest.

Green Bay

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Kentucky76–96
  • Wvs Purdue FW64–56
  • Wvs Youngstown St85–63
  • L@ Detroit Mercy70–74
  • W@ Oakland73–68

A week or more of rest.