1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Dec 3
  3. NIU @ GB
NCAAB · Thu, Dec 3

Northern Illinois Huskies at Green Bay Phoenix

Resch Center · at Green Bay · Conference game
#334NIUN Illinois
@
#225GBGreen Bay
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NIUThis seasonGB
1-0Record0-0
0-1ATS0-0
1-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GB 80–69 · win probability GB 84%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GB has more of the edges

NIU 1, GB 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GBBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NIU 47.6 and allows 55.6; GB 54.9 and allows 53.6
GBBig
Three-pointers
NIU hits 30.9% and allows 36.3%; GB hits 36.4% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 45.0% and 37.3% of their shots
GBSmall
GB offense vs NIU defense
Offense 219th of 366 against a defense 327th, on the model’s ratings
GBSmall
NIU offense vs GB defense
Offense 327th of 366 against a defense 227th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NIU has played the 167th-hardest schedule, GB the 255th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: NIU plays 69.0 a game (181st fastest), GB 65.2 (339th). Faster games mean more points
NIUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NIU 30.3%, GB 25.1%. Defensive: NIU 70.0%, GB 70.4%
GBSmall
Home court
GB at home. This season: GB 0-0 at home, NIU 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NIU 38.3, GB 41.6. Allowed: NIU 38.3, GB 37.4
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NIU 21.7%, GB 15.9%. Forced: NIU 16.3%, GB 13.2%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NIU 30%, GB 40%. Transfers in: NIU 6, GB 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GB -11.4—
Total—148.9—
Projected score—NIU 68.8 · GB 80.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGB -6.7—
1H total69.7—
1H projected scoreNIU 31.5 · GB 38.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Green Bay has the better starters

Position by position: N Illinois 1, Green Bay 3, even 1
N IllinoisBetterGreen Bay
G M. Weisbrod TR11 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast Score 27
GBBig
G O. Lovejoy TR16 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 85
G T. Polite15 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 45
Even
G L. Thomas4.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31
G U. Buntyn TR12.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 52
NIUBig
G M. Wrecke2.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 8
G D. Douglas TR12 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast Score 9
GBBig
F M. Hall13.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 49
F T. Samuels7 pts · 8.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33
GBBig
F A. Hadaway TR14.5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 71
N IllinoisBetterGreen Bay
NIU offense327th of 366 · -10.6
GBSmall
GB defense227th of 366 · -6.0
NIU defense327th of 366 · -8.5
GBSmall
GB offense219th of 366 · -6.7
Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players
GBBig
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.4 · 1 player
GBSmall
Frontcourt+0.7 · 2 players
Bench-3.5 · 3 players
Even
Bench-3.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestNIU betterGB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Illinois
Guards
M. Weisbrod31 min · TRT. Polite31 minU. Buntyn31 min · TRD. Douglas30 min · TRN. Carter-SmithNewC. HardrickNew
Forwards
T. Samuels30 minM. Ivanauskas20 min · TRJ. Daugherty10 min · TRA. McBirney-Griffin10 min · TRB. GrossNew
Green Bay
Guards
O. Lovejoy31 min · TRL. Thomas12 minM. Wrecke11 minK. Van Kauwenberg10 minB. Fitzgerald1 minS. ErhartNew
Forwards
M. Hall35 minA. Hadaway33 min · TRI. Sutherland10 min · TRH. GruetzmacherNewT. ColnaricNew
Centers
M. Cicic11 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NIUGB
Scoring
66.3 #341Points per game73.9 #201
0.96 #354Points per possession1.13 #83
69.0 #181Pace (possessions)65.2 #339
Shooting
47.6 #324Effective FG%54.9 #41
30.9 #3233-point %36.4 #42
45.0 #663-point attempt rate37.3 #224
38.3 #95Free throw rate41.6 #36
Possessions
21.7 #360Turnover rate15.9 #133
30.3 #187Offensive rebound rate25.1 #339
11.6 #308Assists per game13.7 #172
Defense
78.9 #291Points allowed75.9 #215
1.15 #323Points allowed per possession1.17 #338
55.6 #342Opponent effective FG%53.6 #287
36.3 #315Opponent 3-point %36.3 #316
16.3 #199Turnovers forced13.2 #350
70.0 #161Defensive rebound rate70.4 #140
5.6 #288Steals per game4.2 #361
1.9 #352Blocks per game2.7 #282
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Illinois

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Akron55–94
  • Lvs Kent State76–102
  • Lvs Ball State43–79
  • L@ Toledo69–79
  • Lvs Ohio66–74

A week or more of rest.

Green Bay

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Kentucky76–96
  • Wvs Purdue FW64–56
  • Wvs Youngstown St85–63
  • L@ Detroit Mercy70–74
  • W@ Oakland73–68

A week or more of rest.