1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 29
  3. DAY vs MEM
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 29

Dayton Flyers vs Memphis Tigers

Nationwide Arena · Neutral site
#91DAYDayton
vs
#76MEMMemphis
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DAYThis seasonMEM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 75–75 · win probability MEM 51%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

DAY 2, MEM 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DAYBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: DAY 46.1, MEM 34.7. Allowed: DAY 35.5, MEM 42.4
DAYSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DAY 16.9%, MEM 18.9%. Forced: DAY 21.0%, MEM 18.6%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: DAY plays 68.3 a game (213th fastest), MEM 71.9 (37th). Faster games mean more points
MEMSmall
Three-pointers
DAY hits 33.9% and allows 35.4%; MEM hits 31.6% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 41.4% and 33.7% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAY 31%, MEM 15%. Transfers in: DAY 4, MEM 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DAY 51.6 and allows 51.0; MEM 48.7 and allows 48.7
Context
Schedule so far
DAY has played the 90th-hardest schedule, MEM the 81st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
DAY offense vs MEM defense
Offense 109th of 366 against a defense 116th, on the model’s ratings
Even
MEM offense vs DAY defense
Offense 62nd of 366 against a defense 57th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAY 26.9%, MEM 35.3%. Defensive: DAY 71.2%, MEM 64.3%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MEM -0.2—
Total—150.6—
Projected score—DAY 75.2 · MEM 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDAY -0.0—
1H total70.4—
1H projected scoreDAY 35.2 · MEM 35.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Memphis has the better starters

Position by position: Dayton 0, Memphis 2, even 3
DaytonBetterMemphis
G Z. Lowery TR8.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 63
MEMSmall
G L. Almodovar TR14.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 80
G L. Joseph TR7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 78
Even
G B. Cummings TR12.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 84
F G. Randall TR11.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 65
MEMSmall
G J. Reid TR10.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 5 ast Score 83
F A. L'Etang11.9 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
Even
F T. Weeks TR20.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
F J. Simon5.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 63
Even
F C. Williams TR11.7 pts · 9.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 68
DaytonBetterMemphis
DAY offense109th of 366 · -1.7
Even
MEM defense116th of 366 · -1.5
DAY defense57th of 366 · +1.4
Even
MEM offense62nd of 366 · +2.6
Backcourt+0.8 · 2 players
MEMBig
Backcourt+4.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt+4.1 · 2 players
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
MEMBig
Bench+4.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAY betterMEM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Dayton
Guards
Z. Lowery23 min · TRL. Joseph18 min · TRT. Perry17 min · TRE. Dickey2 minM. Grant1 minW. Maxwell1 min
Forwards
G. Randall32 min · TRA. L'Etang26 minJ. Simon18 minM. Thomas9 minD. Friery6 minJ. HaynesNew
Memphis
Guards
L. Almodovar28 min · TRB. Cummings26 min · TRJ. Reid26 min · TRJ. Thedford20 minJ. Holloway13 min · TRP. PoundsNew
Forwards
T. Weeks34 min · TRC. Williams33 min · TRR. Vavers25 min · TRJ. Deng13 min · TRM. Logue11 min · TRW. Whorton9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DAYMEM
Scoring
74.1 #193Points per game75.2 #158
1.09 #167Points per possession1.04 #264
68.3 #213Pace (possessions)71.9 #37
Shooting
51.6 #168Effective FG%48.7 #298
33.9 #1823-point %31.6 #303
41.4 #1423-point attempt rate33.7 #305
46.1 #2Free throw rate34.7 #190
Possessions
16.9 #198Turnover rate18.9 #316
26.9 #298Offensive rebound rate35.3 #41
14.2 #134Assists per game13.3 #193
Defense
69.3 #50Points allowed76.6 #234
1.01 #37Points allowed per possession1.07 #124
51.0 #164Opponent effective FG%48.7 #55
35.4 #270Opponent 3-point %30.6 #22
21.0 #11Turnovers forced18.6 #69
71.2 #94Defensive rebound rate64.3 #350
8.2 #31Steals per game8.4 #19
3.9 #90Blocks per game4.3 #49
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Dayton

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois St55–61
  • W@ UNC Wilmington80–61
  • W@ Bradley80–66
  • Lvs VCU62–70
  • Wvs Saint Louis70–69

A week or more of rest.

Memphis

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulane69–81
  • W@ Tulane96–95
  • Lvs South Florida89–96
  • L@ East Carolina68–84
  • Lvs Wichita St82–88

A week or more of rest.