1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 29
  3. CCSU @ FAIR
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 29

Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Fairfield Stags

Leo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield
#337CCSUC Connecticut
@
#239FAIRFairfield
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CCSUThis seasonFAIR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAIR 75–65 · win probability FAIR 80%
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 139.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FAIR has more of the edges

CCSU 3, FAIR 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FAIRBig
CCSU offense vs FAIR defense
Offense 353rd of 366 against a defense 195th, on the model’s ratings
FAIRBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CCSU 27.5%, FAIR 35.8%. Defensive: CCSU 69.6%, FAIR 70.9%
FAIRBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CCSU 16.3%, FAIR 15.4%. Forced: CCSU 14.0%, FAIR 16.8%
CCSUSmall
Three-pointers
CCSU hits 35.8% and allows 33.4%; FAIR hits 33.2% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 34.9% and 35.4% of their shots
CCSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CCSU 51.6 and allows 50.2; FAIR 48.8 and allows 51.0
CCSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CCSU 31.2, FAIR 27.7. Allowed: CCSU 26.9, FAIR 30.4
FAIRSmall
Home court
FAIR at home. This season: FAIR 0-0 at home, CCSU 0-0 away
Even
FAIR offense vs CCSU defense
Offense 282nd of 366 against a defense 247th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: CCSU plays 65.5 a game (329th fastest), FAIR 67.3 (263rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CCSU 55%, FAIR 53%. Transfers in: CCSU 0, FAIR 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
CCSU has played the 358th-hardest schedule, FAIR the 359th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FAIR -9.8—
Total—139.7—
Projected score—CCSU 64.9 · FAIR 74.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFAIR -5.7—
1H total65.4—
1H projected scoreCCSU 29.8 · FAIR 35.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Fairfield has the better starters

Position by position: C Connecticut 1, Fairfield 2, even 2
C ConnecticutBetterFairfield
G J. Jones4.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 4
FAIRBig
G D. Wucherpfennig11.8 pts · 8.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 71
G V. Payne6.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 16
Even
G T. Williams6.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19
G E. Parker2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 0
Even
G E. Mejia4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 11
G R. Jones3.8 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20
CCSUSmall
G H. Rawlins3.6 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 4
F D. James3.2 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 13
FAIRBig
F Q. Martin TR12.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
C ConnecticutBetterFairfield
CCSU offense353rd of 366 · -13.2
FAIRBig
FAIR defense195th of 366 · -4.8
CCSU defense247th of 366 · -6.5
Even
FAIR offense282nd of 366 · -8.7
Backcourt-10.6 · 4 players
FAIRBig
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 1 player
FAIRSmall
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench-2.0 · 2 players
Even
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCCSU betterFAIR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
C Connecticut
Guards
J. Jones30 minV. Payne24 minE. Parker14 minR. Jones10 minA. Reynolds10 minR. LaurentNew
Forwards
D. James13 minJ. Mott8 minB. JacksonNewJ. ErvinNewR. TibbyNewC. LangdonNew
Fairfield
Guards
D. Wucherpfennig32 minT. Williams20 minE. Mejia19 minH. Rawlins17 minN. Rodriguez7 minJ. Ganton2 min
Forwards
Q. Martin32 min · TRM. Radunovic9 min · TRI. Munkadi9 minP. SmithNewO. SackoNewB. JonesNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CCSUFAIR
Scoring
70.6 #272Points per game72.9 #226
1.08 #192Points per possession1.09 #166
65.5 #329Pace (possessions)67.3 #263
Shooting
51.6 #165Effective FG%48.8 #294
35.8 #693-point %33.2 #216
34.9 #2783-point attempt rate35.4 #262
31.2 #276Free throw rate27.7 #346
Possessions
16.3 #154Turnover rate15.4 #96
27.5 #281Offensive rebound rate35.8 #29
12.8 #229Assists per game12.1 #277
Defense
72.0 #105Points allowed71.9 #104
1.10 #218Points allowed per possession1.06 #118
50.2 #113Opponent effective FG%51.0 #159
33.4 #146Opponent 3-point %34.3 #200
14.0 #338Turnovers forced16.8 #169
69.6 #179Defensive rebound rate70.9 #116
5.4 #311Steals per game6.5 #183
3.9 #83Blocks per game3.5 #145
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Connecticut

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wagner60–70
  • Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves69–64
  • Wvs Mercyhurst80–78
  • L@ Chicago St51–70
  • Wvs Le Moyne78–77

A week or more of rest.

Fairfield

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena61–76
  • Wvs Saint Peter's74–55
  • Wvs Manhattan71–60
  • Lvs Mount St Marys47–69
  • Wvs Siena72–58

A week or more of rest.