Manhattan Jaspers at Fairfield Stags: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 4, 7:00 PM ETLeo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Manhattan and Fairfield
MAN	This season	FAIR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAIR 78–69 · win probability FAIR 79%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FAIR has more of the edges

MAN 1, FAIR 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

FAIRBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MAN 28.6%, FAIR 35.8%. Defensive: MAN 63.0%, FAIR 70.9%

FAIRSmall

MAN offense vs FAIR defense

Offense 301st of 366 against a defense 195th, on the model’s ratings

FAIRSmall

Three-pointers

MAN hits 32.0% and allows 36.6%; FAIR hits 33.2% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 37.1% and 35.4% of their shots

MANSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MAN 34.0, FAIR 27.7. Allowed: MAN 25.7, FAIR 30.4

FAIRSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MAN 47.9 and allows 53.9; FAIR 48.8 and allows 51.0

FAIRSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MAN 10%, FAIR 53%. Transfers in: MAN 5, FAIR 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

FAIRSmall

FAIR offense vs MAN defense

Offense 282nd of 366 against a defense 346th, on the model’s ratings

FAIRSmall

Home court

FAIR at home. This season: FAIR 0-0 at home, MAN 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: MAN plays 69.0 a game (182nd fastest), FAIR 67.3 (263rd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

MAN has played the 336th-hardest schedule, FAIR the 359th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MAN 15.6%, FAIR 15.4%. Forced: MAN 16.6%, FAIR 16.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FAIR -9.3	—
Total	—	147.1	—
Projected score	—	MAN 68.9 · FAIR 78.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FAIR -5.4	—
1H total	68.8	—
1H projected score	MAN 31.7 · FAIR 37.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MAN WLLLL	11-20	35%	4-11	—
FAIR WLWWL	15-18	45%	5-10	—

Venue/role: MAN away; FAIR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MAN UOUUU	13-18	42%	11-20
FAIR UUUUU	14-19	42%	20-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MAN	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
FAIR	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Manhattan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs L-MD	No recent meeting

Fairfield

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ MRMK	L63–74LU
Dec 8	@ PROV	L73–80WO
Dec 13	vs LEM	W97–83WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

MAN 5–6 FAIRFAIR leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · FAIR has won the last 2 meetings · MAN 7-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 5, 2025-26	MAN 60 vs FAIR 71	FAIR -3.5	FAIR W
Jan 14, 2025-26	MAN 62 @ FAIR 98	FAIR -6.5	FAIR W
Dec 5, 2025-26	FAIR 66 @ MAN 70	MAN +1.5	MAN W
Feb 16, 2024-25	MAN 80 @ FAIR 67	FAIR +1.5	MAN W
Jan 23, 2024-25	FAIR 87 @ MAN 84	MAN -3.5	FAIR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Manhattan

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-18

42% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

L W L W L L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L L W L L W W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-2035%

L W L L L L L W L L W W W W L L W L L W L L L L W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1842%

O U U U O O O U O U U O U U U U O O U O U O U O U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@USC	L 83-114	+28.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 12	vsUTU	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 14	@HAW	L 56-86	+15.5	L −14.5	156.5	U 142
Nov 15	vsMVSU	W 80-73	-20.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 21	@TA&M	L 68-109	+23.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsWAG	L 101-103	-2.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 204
Nov 29	@ARMY	L 78-81	-1.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 5	vsFAIR	W 70-66	+1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 136
Dec 7	@MRST	L 68-80	+7.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 148
Dec 13	@FOR	L 53-82	+8.5	L −20.5	147.5	U 135
Dec 18	vsFUR	L 68-75	+10.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsPRES	W 87-81	+2.5	W +8.5	138.5	O 168
Dec 29	@RID	W 74-71	-2.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 2	vsQUIN	W 80-79	+7.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 4	@MRMK	L 66-73	+6.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 9	vsCAN	L 64-70	-7.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 134
Jan 11	vsNIA	W 79-70	-5.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 149
Jan 14	@FAIR	L 62-98	+6.5	L −29.5	158.5	O 160
Jan 17	vsSIE	L 59-74	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 133
Jan 19	@QUIN	L 92-98	+13.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 190
Jan 24	@IONA	L 57-66	+7.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 123
Jan 30	vsRID	W 95-90	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 185
Feb 1	@MSM	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 5	vsSPU	L 75-80	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 155
Feb 7	vsSHU	W 80-68	+1.5	W +13.5	161.5	U 148
Feb 13	@NIA	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 15	@CAN	W 69-65	-1.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 20	vsMRST	L 70-84	+5.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 154
Feb 27	@SPU	L 65-75	+7.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 1	vsIONA	L 65-69	+2.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 134
Mar 5	vsFAIR	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 83-114

−2.5

UTU

W 79-75

+6.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−13.5

TA&M

L 68-109

−17.5

WAG

L 101-103

−4.5

ARMY

L 78-81

−4.5

FAIR

W 70-66

+5.5

MRST

L 68-80

−4.5

FOR

L 53-82

−20.5

FUR

L 68-75

+3.5

PRES

W 87-81

+8.5

RID

W 74-71

+0.5

QUIN

W 80-79

+8.5

MRMK

L 66-73

−0.5

CAN

L 64-70

−13.5

NIA

W 79-70

+3.5

FAIR

L 62-98

−29.5

SIE

L 59-74

−8.5

QUIN

L 92-98

+7.5

IONA

L 57-66

−1.5

RID

W 95-90

−0.5

MSM

L 65-72

−0.5

SPU

L 75-80

−0.5

SHU

W 80-68

+13.5

NIA

W 76-69

+4.5

CAN

W 69-65

+2.5

MRST

L 70-84

−8.5

SPU

L 65-75

−2.5

IONA

L 65-69

−1.5

FAIR

L 60-71

−7.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 83-114

+41.5

UTU

W 79-75

−4.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−1.5

TA&M

L 68-109

+14.5

WAG

L 101-103

+59.5

ARMY

L 78-81

+6.5

FAIR

W 70-66

−19.5

MRST

L 68-80

+7.5

FOR

L 53-82

−12.5

FUR

L 68-75

−11.5

PRES

W 87-81

+29.5

RID

W 74-71

−2.5

QUIN

W 80-79

−0.5

MRMK

L 66-73

−9.5

CAN

L 64-70

−11.5

NIA

W 79-70

+8.5

FAIR

L 62-98

+1.5

SIE

L 59-74

−11.5

QUIN

L 92-98

+36.5

IONA

L 57-66

−30.5

RID

W 95-90

+39.5

MSM

L 65-72

−10.5

SPU

L 75-80

+10.5

SHU

W 80-68

−13.5

NIA

W 76-69

+8.5

CAN

W 69-65

−8.5

MRST

L 70-84

+11.5

SPU

L 65-75

−5.5

IONA

L 65-69

−17.5

FAIR

L 60-71

−17.5

over 13under 18avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fairfield

33 games played

Straight up

20-13

61% wins

Against the spread

15-18

45% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-19

42% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1361%

L W L W W W L W L L W W L L W W W L L W W W L W W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1845%

W W L L L W L L L L W W L L W L W L L L L W L W W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1942%

U U O O O O O U U U U O U O O U O O O U U U U O U O U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PSU	L 68-76	+15.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NJIT	W 74-53	-6.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 10	@HALL	L 59-82	+14.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 14	vsSTO	W 73-71	-6.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 144
Nov 16	vsL-MD	W 85-82	-5.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 167
Nov 22	@LEM	W 97-83	-1.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 26	vsCOLU	L 77-106	+3.5	L −25.5	150.5	O 183
Nov 30	vsUNH	W 72-68	-9.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 5	@MAN	L 66-70	-1.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 136
Dec 7	@MRMK	L 63-74	+3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 14	vsMONM	W 73-65	+2.5	W +10.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 18	@CCSU	W 84-70	+6.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 154
Dec 29	vsSPU	L 66-70	-2.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 136
Jan 2	@CAN	L 81-85	-6.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 166
Jan 4	@NIA	W 83-75	-3.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 158
Jan 9	vsRID	W 68-62	-8.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 130
Jan 14	vsMAN	W 98-62	-6.5	W +29.5	158.5	O 160
Jan 17	@MRST	L 67-82	+8.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 19	@SIE	L 77-85	+6.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 162
Jan 22	vsNIA	W 62-61	-10.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 24	vsCAN	W 61-55	-10.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 116
Jan 30	@IONA	W 71-70	+1.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 1	vsQUIN	L 65-72	+2.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 137
Feb 5	@SHU	W 92-87	+1.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 179
Feb 7	vsMRST	W 63-60	+1.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 123
Feb 15	@SPU	L 74-83	+3.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 157
Feb 20	vsSHU	W 78-68	-4.5	W +5.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 22	@QUIN	W 85-79	+6.5	W +12.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 27	vsSIE	W 72-58	+1.5	W +15.5	142.5	U 130
Mar 1	vsMSM	L 47-69	-4.5	L −26.5	145.5	U 116
Mar 5	vsMAN	W 71-60	-3.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 131
Mar 6	vsSPU	W 74-55	+1.5	W +20.5	137.5	U 129
Mar 8	vsSIE	L 61-76	+1.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

+7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

+14.5

HALL

L 59-82

−8.5

STO

W 73-71

−4.5

L-MD

W 85-82

−2.5

LEM

W 97-83

+12.5

COLU

L 77-106

−25.5

UNH

W 72-68

−5.5

MAN

L 66-70

−5.5

MRMK

L 63-74

−7.5

MONM

W 73-65

+10.5

CCSU

W 84-70

+20.5

SPU

L 66-70

−6.5

CAN

L 81-85

−10.5

NIA

W 83-75

+4.5

RID

W 68-62

−2.5

MAN

W 98-62

+29.5

MRST

L 67-82

−6.5

SIE

L 77-85

−1.5

NIA

W 62-61

−9.5

CAN

W 61-55

−4.5

IONA

W 71-70

+2.5

QUIN

L 65-72

−4.5

SHU

W 92-87

+6.5

MRST

W 63-60

+4.5

SPU

L 74-83

−5.5

SHU

W 78-68

+5.5

QUIN

W 85-79

+12.5

SIE

W 72-58

+15.5

MSM

L 47-69

−26.5

MAN

W 71-60

+7.5

SPU

W 74-55

+20.5

SIE

L 61-76

−13.5

covered 15didn’t cover 18avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

−7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

−18.5

HALL

L 59-82

+3.5

STO

W 73-71

+0.5

L-MD

W 85-82

+31.5

LEM

W 97-83

+34.5

COLU

L 77-106

+32.5

UNH

W 72-68

−7.5

MAN

L 66-70

−19.5

MRMK

L 63-74

−7.5

MONM

W 73-65

−5.5

CCSU

W 84-70

+10.5

SPU

L 66-70

−4.5

CAN

L 81-85

+25.5

NIA

W 83-75

+19.5

RID

W 68-62

−15.5

MAN

W 98-62

+1.5

MRST

L 67-82

+7.5

SIE

L 77-85

+19.5

NIA

W 62-61

−16.5

CAN

W 61-55

−25.5

IONA

W 71-70

−5.5

QUIN

L 65-72

−17.5

SHU

W 92-87

+23.5

MRST

W 63-60

−15.5

SPU

L 74-83

+15.5

SHU

W 78-68

−12.5

QUIN

W 85-79

+13.5

SIE

W 72-58

−12.5

MSM

L 47-69

−29.5

MAN

W 71-60

−17.5

SPU

W 74-55

−8.5

SIE

L 61-76

−1.5

over 14under 19avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Manhattan 1, Fairfield 1, even 3

ManhattanBetterFairfield

G B. Tweedy TR9 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 29

FAIRBig

G D. Wucherpfennig11.8 pts · 8.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 71

G J. Sabino TR7.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 53

MANSmall

G T. Williams6.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

G Q. Elliott3.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 17

Even

G E. Mejia4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 11

G J. Delaney0.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G H. Rawlins3.6 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 4

F O. Stankovic TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F Q. Martin TR12.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76

ManhattanBetterFairfield

MAN offense301st of 366 · -9.4

FAIRSmall

FAIR defense195th of 366 · -4.8

MAN defense346th of 366 · -9.3

FAIRSmall

FAIR offense282nd of 366 · -8.7

Backcourt-4.3 · 4 players

MANSmall

Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

FAIRSmall

Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player

Bench-0.5 · 3 players

MANSmall

Bench-2.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMAN betterFAIR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Manhattan

Guards

B. Tweedy30 min · TRJ. Sabino21 min · TRQ. Elliott12 minJ. Delaney5 minA. Miguel4 minB. PearceNew

Forwards

O. Stankovic6 min · TRK. Kearney4 min · TRL. McChesney3 min · TRI. JohnsonNewD. EricNewN. ManojlovicNew

Fairfield

Guards

D. Wucherpfennig32 minT. Williams20 minE. Mejia19 minH. Rawlins17 minN. Rodriguez7 minJ. Ganton2 min

Forwards

Q. Martin32 min · TRM. Radunovic9 min · TRI. Munkadi9 minP. SmithNewO. SackoNewB. JonesNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MAN72.4 #232

FAIR72.9 #226

Points per possession

MAN1.05 #247

FAIR1.09 #166

Pace (possessions)

MAN69.0 #182

FAIR67.3 #263

Shooting

Effective FG%

MAN47.9 #315

FAIR48.8 #294

3-point %

MAN32.0 #280

FAIR33.2 #216

3-point attempt rate

MAN37.1 #228

FAIR35.4 #262

Free throw rate

MAN34.0 #208

FAIR27.7 #346

Possessions

Turnover rate

MAN15.6 #112

FAIR15.4 #96

Offensive rebound rate

MAN28.6 #247

FAIR35.8 #29

Assists per game

MAN12.3 #268

FAIR12.1 #277

Defense

Points allowed

MAN79.6 #309

FAIR71.9 #104

Points allowed per possession

MAN1.15 #330

FAIR1.06 #118

Opponent effective FG%

MAN53.9 #297

FAIR51.0 #159

Opponent 3-point %

MAN36.6 #332

FAIR34.3 #200

Turnovers forced

MAN16.6 #175

FAIR16.8 #169

Defensive rebound rate

MAN63.0 #358

FAIR70.9 #116

Steals per game

MAN7.8 #54

FAIR6.5 #183

Blocks per game

MAN2.3 #325

FAIR3.5 #145

MAN		FAIR
Scoring
72.4 #232	Points per game	72.9 #226
1.05 #247	Points per possession	1.09 #166
69.0 #182	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #263
Shooting
47.9 #315	Effective FG%	48.8 #294
32.0 #280	3-point %	33.2 #216
37.1 #228	3-point attempt rate	35.4 #262
34.0 #208	Free throw rate	27.7 #346
Possessions
15.6 #112	Turnover rate	15.4 #96
28.6 #247	Offensive rebound rate	35.8 #29
12.3 #268	Assists per game	12.1 #277
Defense
79.6 #309	Points allowed	71.9 #104
1.15 #330	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #118
53.9 #297	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #159
36.6 #332	Opponent 3-point %	34.3 #200
16.6 #175	Turnovers forced	16.8 #169
63.0 #358	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #116
7.8 #54	Steals per game	6.5 #183
2.3 #325	Blocks per game	3.5 #145

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Manhattan

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Fairfield60–71
Lvs Iona65–69
L@ Saint Peter's65–75
Lvs Marist70–84
W@ Canisius69–65

A week or more of rest.

Fairfield

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena61–76
Wvs Saint Peter's74–55
Wvs Manhattan71–60
Lvs Mount St Marys47–69
Wvs Siena72–58

A week or more of rest.

Manhattan Jaspers at Fairfield Stags

What could decide it: FAIR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Manhattan

Fairfield

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Manhattan

Fairfield