DePaul Blue Demons vs Pittsburgh Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 26, 7:00 PM ETSuncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site

#74PITTPitt

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: DePaul and Pitt
DEP	This season	PITT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEP 72–71 · win probability DEP 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEP has more of the edges

DEP 4, PITT 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PITTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEP 30.1%, PITT 33.9%. Defensive: DEP 69.0%, PITT 71.9%

DEPSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEP 49.8 and allows 49.3; PITT 51.0 and allows 53.4

DEPSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEP 38%, PITT 3%. Transfers in: DEP 6, PITT 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

DEPSmall

PITT offense vs DEP defense

Offense 87th of 366 against a defense 31st, on the model’s ratings

DEPSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEP 17.7%, PITT 17.2%. Forced: DEP 18.7%, PITT 16.3%

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: DEP plays 67.7 a game (240th fastest), PITT 65.0 (345th). Faster games mean more points

Even

DEP offense vs PITT defense

Offense 92nd of 366 against a defense 59th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

DEP hits 32.5% and allows 35.4%; PITT hits 33.4% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 39.0% and 42.6% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEP 35.3, PITT 30.4. Allowed: DEP 37.8, PITT 30.9

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Context

Schedule so far

DEP has played the 72nd-hardest schedule, PITT the 65th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DEP -1.6	—
Total	—	142.6	—
Projected score	—	DEP 72.1 · PITT 70.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DEP -1.1	—
1H total	66.7	—
1H projected score	DEP 33.9 · PITT 32.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
DEP WWLLL	20-12	63%	1-2	—
PITT WWWWL	16-17	48%	2-2	—

Venue/role: DEP neutral site; PITT neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEP OUUOU	11-21	34%	16-16
PITT UOUUO	19-14	58%	13-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEP	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
PITT	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

DePaul

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs UNA	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs SMU	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs ME	No recent meeting

Pitt

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ MIZ	L64–71LU
Dec 5	vs TAR	No recent meeting
Dec 9	vs WVU	L49–71LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

DePaul

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

20-12

63% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-21

34% overs · avg −5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

W W L L W W W L W W W L L L W W L W L W L L L L W W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

20-1263%

W L L W W W W L L W W W L W W W W W W W L W L L W W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-2134%

O U U O U O U O U U U U U U O U U O O U U U U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHST	W 92-62	-24.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsSTO	W 72-64	-22.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 11	vsBUF	L 53-66	-18.5	L −31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 14	vsNU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 18	vsGWEB	W 93-62	-21.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsDETM	W 95-75	-19.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 170
Nov 28	vsGT	W 75-61	-1.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsLSU	L 63-96	+5.5	L −27.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsUAPB	W 76-72	-23.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 148
Dec 9	vsMORG	W 92-49	-21.5	W +21.5	150.5	U 141
Dec 13	@WICH	W 61-58	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 16	@SJU	L 66-79	+19.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 145
Dec 21	vsCONN	L 54-72	+12.5	L −5.5	133.5	U 126
Dec 31	@VILL	L 66-71	+12.5	W +7.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	vsXAV	W 86-77	-2.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 163
Jan 6	vsGTWN	W 56-50	-2.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 106
Jan 10	@CONN	L 60-72	+19.5	W +7.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 16	vsMARQ	W 80-75	-2.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 20	@BTLR	L 80-87	+7.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 167
Jan 24	vsHALL	W 67-60	+2.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 127
Jan 28	@GTWN	L 61-70	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 131
Jan 31	@XAV	L 66-68	+4.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 3	vsSJU	L 56-68	+9.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 124
Feb 7	@PROV	L 72-90	+4.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 11	vsCREI	W 72-71	+1.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 143
Feb 18	@HALL	W 69-57	+7.5	W +19.5	129.5	U 126
Feb 21	vsPROV	L 68-71	-2.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 25	@CREI	W 72-71	+3.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 143
Mar 1	@MARQ	W 62-51	+4.5	W +15.5	139.5	U 113
Mar 4	vsVILL	L 57-76	+1.5	L −17.5	135.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsBTLR	L 71-81	-4.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 152
Mar 11	vsGTWN	L 56-63	+1.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+5.5

STO

W 72-64

−14.5

BUF

L 53-66

−31.5

L 79-81

+3.5

GWEB

W 93-62

+9.5

DETM

W 95-75

+0.5

W 75-61

+12.5

LSU

L 63-96

−27.5

UAPB

W 76-72

−19.5

MORG

W 92-49

+21.5

WICH

W 61-58

+10.5

SJU

L 66-79

+6.5

CONN

L 54-72

−5.5

VILL

L 66-71

+7.5

XAV

W 86-77

+6.5

GTWN

W 56-50

+3.5

CONN

L 60-72

+7.5

MARQ

W 80-75

+2.5

BTLR

L 80-87

+0.5

HALL

W 67-60

+9.5

GTWN

L 61-70

−5.5

XAV

L 66-68

+2.5

SJU

L 56-68

−2.5

PROV

L 72-90

−13.5

CREI

W 72-71

+2.5

HALL

W 69-57

+19.5

PROV

L 68-71

−5.5

CREI

W 72-71

+4.5

MARQ

W 62-51

+15.5

VILL

L 57-76

−17.5

BTLR

L 71-81

−14.5

GTWN

L 56-63

−5.5

covered 20didn’t cover 12avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+10.5

STO

W 72-64

−11.5

BUF

L 53-66

−34.5

L 79-81

+14.5

GWEB

W 93-62

−0.5

DETM

W 95-75

+18.5

W 75-61

−11.5

LSU

L 63-96

+6.5

UAPB

W 76-72

−8.5

MORG

W 92-49

−9.5

WICH

W 61-58

−26.5

SJU

L 66-79

−2.5

CONN

L 54-72

−7.5

VILL

L 66-71

−2.5

XAV

W 86-77

+13.5

GTWN

W 56-50

−38.5

CONN

L 60-72

−5.5

MARQ

W 80-75

+9.5

BTLR

L 80-87

+19.5

HALL

W 67-60

−8.5

GTWN

L 61-70

−8.5

XAV

L 66-68

−16.5

SJU

L 56-68

−21.5

PROV

L 72-90

+8.5

CREI

W 72-71

+1.5

HALL

W 69-57

−3.5

PROV

L 68-71

−13.5

CREI

W 72-71

+0.5

MARQ

W 62-51

−26.5

VILL

L 57-76

−2.5

BTLR

L 71-81

+9.5

GTWN

L 56-63

−17.5

over 11under 21avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pitt

33 games played

Straight up

13-20

39% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-2039%

W W W L W L L W L L L W W L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

W W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L W L L L W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

U U O U U U O U O O O O U O O O O O U O O U U O U O O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsYSU	W 74-59	-14.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsLONG	W 78-60	-14.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsEMU	W 78-66	-15.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 13	@WVU	L 49-71	+5.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsBUCK	W 84-50	-16.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	vsUCF	L 67-77	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 23	vsQUIN	L 75-83	-12.5	L −20.5	140.5	O 158
Nov 28	vsOSU	W 67-66	+5.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 133
Dec 2	vsTA&M	L 73-81	+3.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 7	vsHOF	L 73-80	-8.5	L −15.5	134.5	O 153
Dec 13	@VILL	L 61-79	+10.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 17	vsBING	W 103-63	-24.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 166
Dec 21	vsPSU	W 80-46	+1.5	W +35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	@MIA	L 69-76	+9.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 3	vsCLEM	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 10	vsSYR	L 72-83	-1.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 14	@GT	W 89-66	-1.5	W +21.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 17	vsLOU	L 59-100	+7.5	L −33.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 21	@BC	L 62-65	-2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsNCSU	L 72-81	+6.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsWAKE	W 80-76	-1.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 156
Jan 31	@CLEM	L 52-63	+10.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 3	@UVA	L 47-67	+12.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 114
Feb 7	vsSMU	L 67-86	+4.5	L −14.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 10	vsDUKE	L 54-70	+17.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 124
Feb 14	@UNC	L 65-79	+11.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 21	vsND	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 25	@STAN	L 67-75	+8.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	@CAL	W 72-56	+6.5	W +22.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 4	vsFSU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 149
Mar 7	@SYR	W 71-69	+5.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsSTAN	W 64-63	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsNCSU	L 88-98	+8.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 186

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

+0.5

LONG

W 78-60

+3.5

EMU

W 78-66

−3.5

WVU

L 49-71

−16.5

BUCK

W 84-50

+17.5

UCF

L 67-77

−11.5

QUIN

L 75-83

−20.5

OSU

W 67-66

+6.5

TA&M

L 73-81

−4.5

HOF

L 73-80

−15.5

VILL

L 61-79

−7.5

BING

W 103-63

+15.5

PSU

W 80-46

+35.5

MIA

L 69-76

+2.5

CLEM

L 68-73

−1.5

SYR

L 72-83

−12.5

W 89-66

+21.5

LOU

L 59-100

−33.5

L 62-65

−5.5

NCSU

L 72-81

−2.5

WAKE

W 80-76

+2.5

CLEM

L 52-63

−0.5

UVA

L 47-67

−7.5

SMU

L 67-86

−14.5

DUKE

L 54-70

+1.5

UNC

L 65-79

−2.5

W 73-68

+1.5

STAN

L 67-75

+0.5

CAL

W 72-56

+22.5

FSU

L 74-75

+0.5

SYR

W 71-69

+7.5

STAN

W 64-63

+5.5

NCSU

L 88-98

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

−12.5

LONG

W 78-60

−7.5

EMU

W 78-66

+2.5

WVU

L 49-71

−14.5

BUCK

W 84-50

−7.5

UCF

L 67-77

−5.5

QUIN

L 75-83

+17.5

OSU

W 67-66

−15.5

TA&M

L 73-81

+1.5

HOF

L 73-80

+18.5

VILL

L 61-79

+1.5

BING

W 103-63

+31.5

PSU

W 80-46

−20.5

MIA

L 69-76

+0.5

CLEM

L 68-73

+5.5

SYR

L 72-83

+12.5

W 89-66

+9.5

LOU

L 59-100

+6.5

L 62-65

−10.5

NCSU

L 72-81

+8.5

WAKE

W 80-76

+5.5

CLEM

L 52-63

−20.5

UVA

L 47-67

−28.5

SMU

L 67-86

+5.5

DUKE

L 54-70

−12.5

UNC

L 65-79

+1.5

W 73-68

+0.5

STAN

L 67-75

+3.5

CAL

W 72-56

−15.5

FSU

L 74-75

+4.5

SYR

W 71-69

−1.5

STAN

W 64-63

−9.5

NCSU

L 88-98

+41.5

over 19under 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: DePaul 2, Pitt 2, even 1

DePaulBetterPitt

G K. Holmes TR19.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

DEPSmall

G N. George TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 5.4 ast Score 75

G A. Popoola TR10.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57

PITTBig

G A. Sumler TR19.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 93

G L. Blocker11.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 77

DEPSmall

F T. Rudovskii TR13.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 59

G K. Cotton TR14.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87

Even

F B. Ndongo TR11.8 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.4 ast Score 90

C W. Jacques TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1 ast Score 52

PITTSmall

C A. Mighty TR13.3 pts · 10.9 reb · 1 ast Score 71

DePaulBetterPitt

DEP offense92nd of 366 · -0.3

Even

PITT defense59th of 366 · +1.3

DEP defense31st of 366 · +3.5

DEPSmall

PITT offense87th of 366 · +0.2

Backcourt+7.2 · 4 players

DEPBig

Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player

PITTBig

Frontcourt+5.4 · 3 players

Bench+0.9 · 5 players

DEPBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEP betterPITT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

DePaul

Guards

K. Holmes32 min · TRA. Popoola29 min · TRL. Blocker29 minK. Cotton28 min · TRN. Meeusen27 min · TRK. McClure19 min

Forwards

M. Gwath19 min · TRT. Pierre-Justin16 minJ. JohnsonNewA. JensenNew

Centers

W. Jacques28 min · TRF. Flores11 min

Pitt

Guards

N. George32 min · TRA. Sumler31 min · TRC. Hawkins27 min · TRJ. Powell16 min · TRJ. Bethea8 min · TRM. Moore6 min

Forwards

T. Rudovskii32 min · TRB. Ndongo27 min · TRA. Souare8 min · TRD. Diomande8 min · TRB. MayhewNewJ. NelsonNew

Centers

A. Mighty32 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEP70.3 #279

PITT70.5 #274

Points per possession

DEP1.04 #280

PITT1.08 #181

Pace (possessions)

DEP67.7 #240

PITT65.0 #345

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEP49.8 #243

PITT51.0 #193

3-point %

DEP32.5 #253

PITT33.4 #206

3-point attempt rate

DEP39.0 #191

PITT42.6 #124

Free throw rate

DEP35.3 #169

PITT30.4 #300

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEP17.7 #253

PITT17.2 #223

Offensive rebound rate

DEP30.1 #197

PITT33.9 #72

Assists per game

DEP15.0 #87

PITT13.2 #197

Defense

Points allowed

DEP69.6 #57

PITT71.8 #101

Points allowed per possession

DEP1.03 #55

PITT1.11 #237

Opponent effective FG%

DEP49.3 #77

PITT53.4 #279

Opponent 3-point %

DEP35.4 #274

PITT35.2 #263

Turnovers forced

DEP18.7 #64

PITT16.3 #202

Defensive rebound rate

DEP69.0 #205

PITT71.9 #68

Steals per game

DEP6.9 #134

PITT6.5 #172

Blocks per game

DEP3.4 #152

PITT3.1 #203

DEP		PITT
Scoring
70.3 #279	Points per game	70.5 #274
1.04 #280	Points per possession	1.08 #181
67.7 #240	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #345
Shooting
49.8 #243	Effective FG%	51.0 #193
32.5 #253	3-point %	33.4 #206
39.0 #191	3-point attempt rate	42.6 #124
35.3 #169	Free throw rate	30.4 #300
Possessions
17.7 #253	Turnover rate	17.2 #223
30.1 #197	Offensive rebound rate	33.9 #72
15.0 #87	Assists per game	13.2 #197
Defense
69.6 #57	Points allowed	71.8 #101
1.03 #55	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #237
49.3 #77	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #279
35.4 #274	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #263
18.7 #64	Turnovers forced	16.3 #202
69.0 #205	Defensive rebound rate	71.9 #68
6.9 #134	Steals per game	6.5 #172
3.4 #152	Blocks per game	3.1 #203

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

DePaul

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Georgetown56–63
Lvs Butler71–81
Lvs Villanova57–76
W@ Marquette62–51
W@ Creighton72–71

A week or more of rest.

Pitt

13-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs NC State88–98
Wvs Stanford64–63
W@ Syracuse71–69
Lvs Florida St74–75
W@ California72–56

A week or more of rest.

DePaul Blue Demons vs Pittsburgh Panthers

What could decide it: DEP has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

DePaul

Pitt

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

DePaul

Pitt