1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 26
  3. JXST vs UCD
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 26

Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs UC Davis Aggies

Resorts World Event Center · Neutral site
#198JXSTJax State
vs
#182UCDUC Davis
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
JXSTThis seasonUCD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCD 73–71 · win probability UCD 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCD has more of the edges

JXST 2, UCD 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: JXST plays 66.3 a game (302nd fastest), UCD 71.8 (39th). Faster games mean more points
JXSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: JXST 29.8%, UCD 25.2%. Defensive: JXST 72.0%, UCD 69.5%
UCDSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: JXST 0%, UCD 57%. Transfers in: JXST 8, UCD 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UCDSmall
JXST offense vs UCD defense
Offense 245th of 366 against a defense 171st, on the model’s ratings
UCDSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: JXST 17.0%, UCD 17.9%. Forced: JXST 16.2%, UCD 19.8%
JXSTSmall
Three-pointers
JXST hits 35.7% and allows 33.3%; UCD hits 34.4% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 38.1% and 43.5% of their shots
Even
UCD offense vs JXST defense
Offense 208th of 366 against a defense 172nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: JXST 43.1, UCD 40.5. Allowed: JXST 38.7, UCD 39.1
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: JXST 49.7 and allows 49.6; UCD 51.8 and allows 51.7
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Schedule so far
JXST has played the 196th-hardest schedule, UCD the 189th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCD -2.3—
Total—143.8—
Projected score—JXST 70.7 · UCD 73

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCD -1.2—
1H total67.3—
1H projected scoreJXST 33 · UCD 34.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UC Davis has the better starters

Position by position: Jax State 0, UC Davis 2, even 3
Jax StateBetterUC Davis
G J. Stiemke TR9.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 28
UCDSmall
G C. Sevilla13.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 45
G C. Lockett TR9.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49
Even
G B. Fagbemi6.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4.3 ast Score 53
F N. Cunningham TR5.1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 38
Even
F I. Chappell8.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26
F M. Hill TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 7
UCDBig
F V. Abosi TR4.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 43
F B. Walker TR4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
F O. Suljanovic5.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 12
Jax StateBetterUC Davis
JXST offense245th of 366 · -7.4
UCDSmall
UCD defense171st of 366 · -3.9
JXST defense172nd of 366 · -3.9
Even
UCD offense208th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players
UCDSmall
Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 3 players
JXSTSmall
Frontcourt-3.5 · 3 players
Bench+0.3 · 3 players
JXSTSmall
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestJXST betterUCD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Jax State
Guards
J. Stiemke28 min · TRC. Lockett25 min · TRL. Horner9 min · TRG. GondrezickNewJ. VickNewN. HernandezNew
Forwards
N. Cunningham13 min · TRM. Hill10 min · TRB. Walker9 min · TRE. Croley5 min · TRK. Polk1 min · TRA. CurryNew
UC Davis
Guards
C. Sevilla32 minB. Fagbemi26 minJ. Stokes14 minC. Rawlins4 minC. Massamba4 min · TRY. Esso-EssisNew
Forwards
I. Chappell24 minV. Abosi17 min · TRO. Suljanovic14 minJ. Margrave10 min · TRN. NobleNewJ. DabrowskiNew
Centers
A. Szymczyk7 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
JXSTUCD
Scoring
69.9 #287Points per game76.1 #139
1.05 #241Points per possession1.06 #234
66.3 #302Pace (possessions)71.8 #39
Shooting
49.7 #253Effective FG%51.8 #157
35.7 #763-point %34.4 #149
38.1 #2093-point attempt rate43.5 #102
43.1 #21Free throw rate40.5 #53
Possessions
17.0 #204Turnover rate17.9 #267
29.8 #208Offensive rebound rate25.2 #334
11.6 #310Assists per game15.1 #83
Defense
70.6 #66Points allowed76.0 #217
1.06 #120Points allowed per possession1.06 #104
49.6 #85Opponent effective FG%51.7 #197
33.3 #141Opponent 3-point %33.8 #172
16.2 #208Turnovers forced19.8 #29
72.0 #67Defensive rebound rate69.5 #182
5.8 #252Steals per game7.5 #81
3.0 #233Blocks per game2.7 #276
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jax State

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs New Mexico St63–68
  • W@ UTEP64–61
  • L@ New Mexico St75–77
  • Lvs Liberty78–81
  • Wvs Delaware80–70

A week or more of rest.

UC Davis

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Fullerton70–82
  • Wvs Santa Barbara79–73
  • L@ UC Irvine69–79
  • W@ Long Beach St76–70
  • Lvs Hawai'i73–77

A week or more of rest.