1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. PAC vs UCD
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Pacific Tigers vs UC Davis Aggies

Resorts World Event Center · Neutral site
#163PACPacific
vs
#182UCDUC Davis
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PACThis seasonUCD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PAC 73–71 · win probability PAC 55%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

PAC 3, UCD 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
PACBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PAC 35.3%, UCD 25.2%. Defensive: PAC 75.0%, UCD 69.5%
UCDBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PAC 20.1%, UCD 17.9%. Forced: PAC 15.1%, UCD 19.8%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: PAC plays 66.1 a game (312th fastest), UCD 71.8 (39th). Faster games mean more points
UCDSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PAC 8%, UCD 57%. Transfers in: PAC 9, UCD 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UCDSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: PAC 30.5, UCD 40.5. Allowed: PAC 36.3, UCD 39.1
Context
Schedule so far
PAC has played the 122nd-hardest schedule, UCD the 189th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PACSmall
UCD offense vs PAC defense
Offense 208th of 366 against a defense 147th, on the model’s ratings
PACSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: PAC 52.2 and allows 50.0; UCD 51.8 and allows 51.7
Even
PAC offense vs UCD defense
Offense 195th of 366 against a defense 171st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
PAC hits 35.8% and allows 34.7%; UCD hits 34.4% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 35.4% and 43.5% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PAC -1.4—
Total—143.9—
Projected score—PAC 72.6 · UCD 71.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPAC -0.9—
1H total67.3—
1H projected scorePAC 34.1 · UCD 33.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Pacific 2, UC Davis 2, even 1
PacificBetterUC Davis
G J. Winston TR15.5 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 74
PACSmall
G C. Sevilla13.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 45
G C. Amundsen TR9.4 pts · 2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 34
UCDSmall
G B. Fagbemi6.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4.3 ast Score 53
G C. Jones TR3.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 17
Even
F I. Chappell8.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26
F G. Ripp TR3.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 10
UCDSmall
F V. Abosi TR4.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 43
F J. Pitt4.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 57
PACBig
F O. Suljanovic5.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 12
PacificBetterUC Davis
PAC offense195th of 366 · -6.1
Even
UCD defense171st of 366 · -3.9
PAC defense147th of 366 · -3.2
PACSmall
UCD offense208th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players
PACSmall
Frontcourt-3.5 · 3 players
Bench-1.2 · 5 players
PACSmall
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPAC betterUCD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pacific
Guards
J. Winston36 min · TRC. Amundsen30 min · TRC. Jones17 min · TRA. Nyorha10 min · TRD. Harris6 min · TRN. BuduNew
Forwards
G. Ripp17 min · TRJ. Pitt17 minJ. Thompson11 min · TRV. OsazeeNewJ. CarotNew
Centers
J. McFarland3 min · TRI. Matlekovic2 min · TR
UC Davis
Guards
C. Sevilla32 minB. Fagbemi26 minJ. Stokes14 minC. Rawlins4 minC. Massamba4 min · TRY. Esso-EssisNew
Forwards
I. Chappell24 minV. Abosi17 min · TRO. Suljanovic14 minJ. Margrave10 min · TRN. NobleNewJ. DabrowskiNew
Centers
A. Szymczyk7 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PACUCD
Scoring
71.3 #262Points per game76.1 #139
1.08 #176Points per possession1.06 #234
66.1 #312Pace (possessions)71.8 #39
Shooting
52.2 #140Effective FG%51.8 #157
35.8 #653-point %34.4 #149
35.4 #2663-point attempt rate43.5 #102
30.5 #297Free throw rate40.5 #53
Possessions
20.1 #350Turnover rate17.9 #267
35.3 #42Offensive rebound rate25.2 #334
14.9 #93Assists per game15.1 #83
Defense
69.8 #60Points allowed76.0 #217
1.05 #93Points allowed per possession1.06 #104
50.0 #101Opponent effective FG%51.7 #197
34.7 #233Opponent 3-point %33.8 #172
15.1 #281Turnovers forced19.8 #29
75.0 #8Defensive rebound rate69.5 #182
5.4 #309Steals per game7.5 #81
2.2 #332Blocks per game2.7 #276
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacific

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Santa Clara68–76
  • Wvs Seattle U61–58
  • Lvs San Francisco61–72
  • L@ Gonzaga62–71
  • L@ Washington St70–87

A week or more of rest.

UC Davis

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Fullerton70–82
  • Wvs Santa Barbara79–73
  • L@ UC Irvine69–79
  • W@ Long Beach St76–70
  • Lvs Hawai'i73–77

A week or more of rest.