Wichita State Shockers at Kentucky Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 9:00 PM ETRupp Arena · at Kentucky

#19UKKentucky AP #23

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wichita St and Kentucky
WICH	This season	UK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UK 85–71 · win probability UK 89%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UK has more of the edges

WICH 2, UK 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

WICH has played the 106th-hardest schedule, UK the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UKSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WICH 49.4 and allows 47.2; UK 53.4 and allows 48.9

WICHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WICH 38.0%, UK 33.2%. Defensive: WICH 71.2%, UK 70.0%

UKSmall

UK offense vs WICH defense

Offense 13th of 366 against a defense 82nd, on the model’s ratings

WICHSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WICH 55%, UK 26%. Transfers in: WICH 4, UK 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UKSmall

Home court

UK at home. This season: UK 0-0 at home, WICH 0-0 away

UKSmall

WICH offense vs UK defense

Offense 78th of 366 against a defense 32nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WICH 15.0%, UK 15.4%. Forced: WICH 15.7%, UK 15.5%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: WICH plays 69.3 a game (164th fastest), UK 69.9 (123rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: WICH 36.0, UK 37.4. Allowed: WICH 34.3, UK 36.4

Even

Three-pointers

WICH hits 33.5% and allows 31.5%; UK hits 34.2% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 33.9% and 39.7% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UK -13.8	—
Total	—	155.7	—
Projected score	—	WICH 70.9 · UK 84.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UK -8.1	—
1H total	72.8	—
1H projected score	WICH 32.3 · UK 40.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WICH WLLWW	23-12	66%	9-4	—
UK LWWWL	18-18	50%	9-9	—

Venue/role: WICH away; UK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WICH UUUOO	15-20	43%	23-12
UK OOUOU	18-18	50%	22-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WICH	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
UK	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wichita St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	vs SEMO	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs BOIS	L59–62WU
Dec 11	vs KSU	W84–65WU

Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ UVA	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs APP	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs BRY	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wichita St

35 games played

Straight up

23-12

66% wins

Against the spread

23-12

66% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1266%

W W W L W L L L W L W W W L L W L W W W L W W L W W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

23-1266%

W W W W W W L L W L L W W L L W L W W W L W W L W L W W W W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-2043%

U O O U U U O U O U O U U O U O U O U U O U U U O O U O U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCA	W 75-58	-6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsPV	W 105-62	-20.5	W +22.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 13	vsLUC	W 95-74	-5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	@BOIS	L 59-62	+9.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 121
Nov 22	vsMILW	W 75-58	-10.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsSMC	L 65-70	+9.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsCSU	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsWKU	L 70-75	-4.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@UNI	W 74-69	+1.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 143
Dec 13	vsDEP	L 58-61	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 17	vsWOF	W 84-73	-12.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 157
Dec 21	vsEKU	W 88-57	-14.5	W +16.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 31	@UAB	W 75-70	+3.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Jan 3	@CLT	L 100-104	-5.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 204
Jan 7	vsRICE	L 64-66	-13.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 130
Jan 11	vsUNT	W 78-67	-8.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 145
Jan 15	@FAU	L 67-85	+3.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 152
Jan 18	@USF	W 86-85	+7.5	W +8.5	158.5	O 171
Jan 21	vsECU	W 77-60	-12.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsMEM	W 74-59	-3.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 133
Feb 1	@TLSA	L 83-93	+5.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 176
Feb 4	vsCLT	W 74-64	-9.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 8	@TULN	W 75-61	-5.5	W +8.5	148.5	U 136
Feb 11	vsUSF	L 58-66	+2.5	L −5.5	160.5	U 124
Feb 14	vsTLSA	W 81-77	-1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 158
Feb 18	@ECU	W 92-89	-7.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 181
Feb 21	vsTEM	W 69-57	-8.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 126
Feb 26	@MEM	W 88-82	+1.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 170
Mar 1	@UTSA	W 84-67	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 151
Mar 7	vsFAU	W 88-70	-8.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 158
Mar 14	vsTLSA	W 81-68	+1.5	W +14.5	152.5	U 149
Mar 15	vsUSF	L 55-70	+6.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 125
Mar 17	vsWYO	W 74-70	-5.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 144
Mar 22	@OKST	W 96-70	+2.5	W +28.5	164.5	O 166
Mar 24	@TLSA	L 79-83	+4.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

+10.5

W 105-62

+22.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

+6.5

MILW

W 75-58

+6.5

SMC

L 65-70

+4.5

CSU

L 70-76

−4.5

WKU

L 70-75

−9.5

UNI

W 74-69

+6.5

DEP

L 58-61

−10.5

WOF

W 84-73

−1.5

EKU

W 88-57

+16.5

UAB

W 75-70

+8.5

CLT

L 100-104

−9.5

RICE

L 64-66

−15.5

UNT

W 78-67

+2.5

FAU

L 67-85

−14.5

USF

W 86-85

+8.5

ECU

W 77-60

+4.5

MEM

W 74-59

+11.5

TLSA

L 83-93

−4.5

CLT

W 74-64

+0.5

TULN

W 75-61

+8.5

USF

L 58-66

−5.5

TLSA

W 81-77

+2.5

ECU

W 92-89

−4.5

TEM

W 69-57

+3.5

MEM

W 88-82

+7.5

UTSA

W 84-67

+1.5

FAU

W 88-70

+9.5

TLSA

W 81-68

+14.5

USF

L 55-70

−8.5

WYO

W 74-70

−1.5

OKST

W 96-70

+28.5

TLSA

L 79-83

+0.5

covered 23didn’t cover 12avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

−24.5

W 105-62

+10.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

−29.5

MILW

W 75-58

−25.5

SMC

L 65-70

−4.5

CSU

L 70-76

+3.5

WKU

L 70-75

−10.5

UNI

W 74-69

+7.5

DEP

L 58-61

−26.5

WOF

W 84-73

+12.5

EKU

W 88-57

−3.5

UAB

W 75-70

−4.5

CLT

L 100-104

+63.5

RICE

L 64-66

−15.5

UNT

W 78-67

+9.5

FAU

L 67-85

−3.5

USF

W 86-85

+12.5

ECU

W 77-60

−7.5

MEM

W 74-59

−12.5

TLSA

L 83-93

+21.5

CLT

W 74-64

−5.5

TULN

W 75-61

−12.5

USF

L 58-66

−36.5

TLSA

W 81-77

+5.5

ECU

W 92-89

+31.5

TEM

W 69-57

−18.5

MEM

W 88-82

+20.5

UTSA

W 84-67

−0.5

FAU

W 88-70

+7.5

TLSA

W 81-68

−3.5

USF

L 55-70

−26.5

WYO

W 74-70

−4.5

OKST

W 96-70

+1.5

TLSA

L 79-83

+7.5

over 15under 20avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kentucky

36 games played

Straight up

22-14

61% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-18

50% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1461%

W W L W L W W L L W W W W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

L W L W L W W L L L W W L L L W L W L L L W W W W L W W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1850%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O U U O U O O U U O O U O O U U O O U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNICH	W 77-51	-31.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	vsVAL	W 107-59	-32.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@LOU	L 88-96	+5.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 184
Nov 14	vsEIU	W 99-53	-35.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 18	vsMSU	L 66-83	-3.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsL-MD	W 88-46	-35.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 26	vsTNTC	W 104-54	-37.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsUNC	L 64-67	-7.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 131
Dec 5	vsGONZ	L 59-94	+5.5	L −29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 9	vsNCCU	W 103-67	-42.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 13	vsIU	W 72-60	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsSJU	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 144
Dec 23	vsBELL	W 99-85	-34.5	L −20.5	152.5	O 184
Jan 3	@ALA	L 74-89	+5.5	L −9.5	173.5	U 163
Jan 7	vsMIZ	L 68-73	-12.5	L −17.5	150.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsMSST	W 92-68	-10.5	W +13.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 14	@LSU	W 75-74	-3.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 149
Jan 17	@TENN	W 80-78	+6.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsTEX	W 85-80	-7.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 165
Jan 24	vsMISS	W 72-63	-11.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 27	@VAN	L 55-80	+5.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 135
Jan 31	@ARK	W 85-77	+6.5	W +14.5	159.5	O 162
Feb 4	vsOU	W 94-78	-8.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 172
Feb 7	vsTENN	W 74-71	-1.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 145
Feb 14	@FLA	L 83-92	+12.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 175
Feb 17	vsUGA	L 78-86	-6.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 21	@AUB	L 74-75	+3.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 149
Feb 24	@SC	W 72-63	-7.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsVAN	W 91-77	-1.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 168
Mar 3	@TA&M	L 85-96	+1.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 181
Mar 7	vsFLA	L 77-84	+5.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 161
Mar 11	vsLSU	W 87-82	-8.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 169
Mar 12	vsMIZ	W 78-72	-2.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 150
Mar 13	vsFLA	L 63-71	+10.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 20	vsSCU	W 89-84	-3.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 22	vsISU	L 63-82	+5.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−5.5

VAL

W 107-59

+15.5

LOU

L 88-96

−2.5

EIU

W 99-53

+10.5

MSU

L 66-83

−20.5

L-MD

W 88-46

+6.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+12.5

UNC

L 64-67

−10.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−29.5

NCCU

W 103-67

−6.5

W 72-60

+8.5

SJU

W 78-66

+10.5

BELL

W 99-85

−20.5

ALA

L 74-89

−9.5

MIZ

L 68-73

−17.5

MSST

W 92-68

+13.5

LSU

W 75-74

−2.5

TENN

W 80-78

+8.5

TEX

W 85-80

−2.5

MISS

W 72-63

−2.5

VAN

L 55-80

−19.5

ARK

W 85-77

+14.5

W 94-78

+7.5

TENN

W 74-71

+1.5

FLA

L 83-92

+3.5

UGA

L 78-86

−14.5

AUB

L 74-75

+2.5

W 72-63

+1.5

VAN

W 91-77

+12.5

TA&M

L 85-96

−9.5

FLA

L 77-84

−1.5

LSU

W 87-82

−3.5

MIZ

W 78-72

+3.5

FLA

L 63-71

+2.5

SCU

W 89-84

+1.5

ISU

L 63-82

−13.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−29.5

VAL

W 107-59

+8.5

LOU

L 88-96

+10.5

EIU

W 99-53

+4.5

MSU

L 66-83

−3.5

L-MD

W 88-46

−25.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+0.5

UNC

L 64-67

−32.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−6.5

NCCU

W 103-67

+21.5

W 72-60

−24.5

SJU

W 78-66

−10.5

BELL

W 99-85

+31.5

ALA

L 74-89

−10.5

MIZ

L 68-73

−9.5

MSST

W 92-68

+7.5

LSU

W 75-74

−2.5

TENN

W 80-78

+12.5

TEX

W 85-80

+12.5

MISS

W 72-63

−10.5

VAN

L 55-80

−20.5

ARK

W 85-77

+2.5

W 94-78

+19.5

TENN

W 74-71

−2.5

FLA

L 83-92

+20.5

UGA

L 78-86

+2.5

AUB

L 74-75

−4.5

W 72-63

−16.5

VAN

W 91-77

+10.5

TA&M

L 85-96

+18.5

FLA

L 77-84

−1.5

LSU

W 87-82

+17.5

MIZ

W 78-72

+1.5

FLA

L 63-71

−27.5

SCU

W 89-84

+15.5

ISU

L 63-82

−1.5

over 18under 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kentucky has the better starters

Position by position: Wichita St 0, Kentucky 1, even 4

Wichita StBetterKentucky

G J. Long TR11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4 ast Score 72

Even

G A. Wilkins TR18.2 pts · 2 reb · 4.7 ast Score 81

G J. Frison TR16.5 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.1 ast Score 93

Even

G Z. Diallo TR15.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96

G M. Gray7.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 37

Even

G J. Morton TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 48

G T. Williams8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 80

UKSmall

F M. Momcilovic TR16.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 97

C W. Berg8.8 pts · 8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 85

Even

F J. McBride TR15.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 87

Wichita StBetterKentucky

WICH offense78th of 366 · +0.8

Even

UK defense32nd of 366 · +3.5

WICH defense82nd of 366 · +0.2

UKSmall

UK offense13th of 366 · +9.5

Backcourt+3.8 · 4 players

UKSmall

Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+2.8 · 1 player

UKBig

Frontcourt+8.1 · 2 players

Bench+0.8 · 5 players

UKBig

Bench+5.1 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestWICH betterUK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wichita St

Guards

J. Long34 min · TRJ. Frison31 min · TRM. Gray27 minT. Williams22 minB. Heard18 min · TRJ. IghovodjaNew

Forwards

D. Battie18 minJ. Valencia13 minN. Hill5 minH. Thengvall2 min

Centers

W. Berg22 minC. Malonga11 min · TR

Kentucky

Guards

A. Wilkins30 min · TRZ. Diallo30 min · TRJ. Morton25 min · TRK. Williams19 minM. WilliamsNewZ. HawthorneNew

Forwards

M. Momcilovic30 min · TRJ. McBride27 min · TRT. Noah11 minR. PotterNewO. N'DiayeNewB. HawthorneNew

Centers

F. Kepnang23 min · TRM. Moreno23 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WICH77.6 #105

UK80.5 #55

Points per possession

WICH1.12 #98

UK1.15 #57

Pace (possessions)

WICH69.3 #164

UK69.9 #123

Shooting

Effective FG%

WICH49.4 #274

UK53.4 #87

3-point %

WICH33.5 #195

UK34.2 #158

3-point attempt rate

WICH33.9 #300

UK39.7 #180

Free throw rate

WICH36.0 #149

UK37.4 #119

Possessions

Turnover rate

WICH15.0 #62

UK15.4 #98

Offensive rebound rate

WICH38.0 #8

UK33.2 #84

Assists per game

WICH11.3 #325

UK15.9 #50

Defense

Points allowed

WICH70.8 #71

UK74.3 #167

Points allowed per possession

WICH1.02 #42

UK1.06 #115

Opponent effective FG%

WICH47.2 #24

UK48.9 #63

Opponent 3-point %

WICH31.5 #44

UK31.8 #55

Turnovers forced

WICH15.7 #238

UK15.5 #248

Defensive rebound rate

WICH71.2 #93

UK70.0 #158

Steals per game

WICH6.0 #235

UK7.0 #123

Blocks per game

WICH3.8 #100

UK4.6 #33

WICH		UK
Scoring
77.6 #105	Points per game	80.5 #55
1.12 #98	Points per possession	1.15 #57
69.3 #164	Pace (possessions)	69.9 #123
Shooting
49.4 #274	Effective FG%	53.4 #87
33.5 #195	3-point %	34.2 #158
33.9 #300	3-point attempt rate	39.7 #180
36.0 #149	Free throw rate	37.4 #119
Possessions
15.0 #62	Turnover rate	15.4 #98
38.0 #8	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #84
11.3 #325	Assists per game	15.9 #50
Defense
70.8 #71	Points allowed	74.3 #167
1.02 #42	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #115
47.2 #24	Opponent effective FG%	48.9 #63
31.5 #44	Opponent 3-point %	31.8 #55
15.7 #238	Turnovers forced	15.5 #248
71.2 #93	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #158
6.0 #235	Steals per game	7.0 #123
3.8 #100	Blocks per game	4.6 #33

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wichita St

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Tulsa79–83
W@ Oklahoma St96–70
Wvs Wyoming74–70
Lvs South Florida55–70
Wvs Tulsa81–68

A week or more of rest.

Kentucky

22-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa State63–82
Wvs Santa Clara89–84
Lvs Florida63–71
Wvs Missouri78–72
Wvs LSU87–82

A week or more of rest.

Wichita State Shockers at Kentucky Wildcats

What could decide it: UK has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Wichita St

Kentucky

Kentucky has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wichita St

Kentucky