1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. NDSU vs UNT
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

North Dakota State Bison vs North Texas Mean Green

Mountain America Center · Neutral site
#213NDSUN Dakota St
vs
#112UNTNorth Texas
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NDSUThis seasonUNT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNT 74–68 · win probability UNT 70%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 141.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NDSU has more of the edges

NDSU 3, UNT 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
NDSU has played the 315th-hardest schedule, UNT the 121st. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNTBig
NDSU offense vs UNT defense
Offense 212th of 366 against a defense 66th, on the model’s ratings
NDSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NDSU 32.9%, UNT 33.5%. Defensive: NDSU 74.5%, UNT 67.6%
NDSUSmall
Three-pointers
NDSU hits 35.4% and allows 33.9%; UNT hits 28.7% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 42.8% and 32.4% of their shots
NDSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NDSU 53.2 and allows 52.0; UNT 46.0 and allows 48.5
UNTSmall
UNT offense vs NDSU defense
Offense 165th of 366 against a defense 209th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NDSU 30.6, UNT 39.6. Allowed: NDSU 29.2, UNT 45.1
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: NDSU plays 69.2 a game (169th fastest), UNT 67.6 (245th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NDSU 25%, UNT 45%. Transfers in: NDSU 4, UNT 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NDSU 15.6%, UNT 16.8%. Forced: NDSU 18.7%, UNT 21.3%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNT -5.9—
Total—141.6—
Projected score—NDSU 67.9 · UNT 73.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNT -3.4—
1H total66.3—
1H projected scoreNDSU 31.5 · UNT 34.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

North Texas has the better starters

Position by position: N Dakota St 1, North Texas 2, even 2
N Dakota StBetterNorth Texas
G M. Bell TR8.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 19
UNTBig
G J. Stevenson17.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 94
G A. Stefonowicz9.3 pts · 3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 42
Even
G C. Chavis TR10.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 53
G R. Diaz TR8.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79
NDSUSmall
G C. Franklin6.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 47
G C. Smith2.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G A. Amkou TR5.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 74
F K. Poom TR8.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 31
UNTSmall
F R. Robinson7.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 65
N Dakota StBetterNorth Texas
NDSU offense212th of 366 · -6.5
UNTBig
UNT defense66th of 366 · +1.0
NDSU defense209th of 366 · -5.3
Even
UNT offense165th of 366 · -5.0
Backcourt-4.6 · 4 players
UNTBig
Backcourt+2.8 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player
UNTSmall
Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestNDSU betterUNT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Dakota St
Guards
M. Bell34 min · TRA. Stefonowicz33 minR. Diaz22 min · TRC. Smith9 minR. Massey8 minJ. Robison2 min · TR
Forwards
K. Poom20 min · TRA. NagyNewK. TateNewC. SchoenfeldNewO. JunkerNewC. StackNew
North Texas
Guards
J. Stevenson33 minC. Chavis27 min · TRC. Franklin25 minA. Amkou12 min · TRE. Horton9 minB. BarnesNew
Forwards
R. Robinson23 minM. Holmes6 min · TRO. NdourNewT. CrumbleNewF. KalajzicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NDSUUNT
Scoring
78.7 #87Points per game69.1 #298
1.14 #76Points per possession1.02 #302
69.2 #169Pace (possessions)67.6 #245
Shooting
53.2 #92Effective FG%46.0 #349
35.4 #933-point %28.7 #358
42.8 #1223-point attempt rate32.4 #325
30.6 #289Free throw rate39.6 #63
Possessions
15.6 #108Turnover rate16.8 #182
32.9 #89Offensive rebound rate33.5 #76
14.8 #97Assists per game12.1 #282
Defense
71.4 #90Points allowed68.2 #35
1.03 #63Points allowed per possession1.01 #33
52.0 #215Opponent effective FG%48.5 #47
33.9 #173Opponent 3-point %30.9 #32
18.7 #62Turnovers forced21.3 #6
74.5 #15Defensive rebound rate67.6 #278
7.7 #64Steals per game8.9 #11
2.8 #265Blocks per game4.3 #51
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Dakota St

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan St67–92
  • Wvs North Dakota70–62
  • Wvs Omaha74–50
  • Wvs Oral Roberts76–65
  • Wvs North Dakota96–63

A week or more of rest.

North Texas

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulsa84–90
  • Wvs FAU74–70
  • Wvs Rice62–58
  • W@ UAB62–58
  • L@ Charlotte79–80

A week or more of rest.