Northeastern Huskies at Northwestern Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 8:00 PM ETWelsh-Ryan Arena · at Northwestern

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Northeastern and Northwestern
NE	This season	NU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NU 87–65 · win probability NU 97%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NU has more of the edges

NE 1, NU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NUBig

NU offense vs NE defense

Offense 67th of 366 against a defense 263rd, on the model’s ratings

NUBig

NE offense vs NU defense

Offense 194th of 366 against a defense 42nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NE has played the 185th-hardest schedule, NU the 36th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NE 29.4, NU 33.9. Allowed: NE 41.9, NU 34.8

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: NE plays 69.9 a game (120th fastest), NU 65.5 (328th). Faster games mean more points

NUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NE 16.3%, NU 13.1%. Forced: NE 16.8%, NU 17.5%

NUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NE 52.4 and allows 56.4; NU 51.7 and allows 51.0

NESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NE 27.3%, NU 28.1%. Defensive: NE 69.8%, NU 65.3%

NUSmall

Three-pointers

NE hits 33.7% and allows 35.8%; NU hits 33.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 37.8% and 34.0% of their shots

NUSmall

Home court

NU at home. This season: NU 0-0 at home, NE 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NE 43%, NU 24%. Transfers in: NE 3, NU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NU -21.6	—
Total	—	151.9	—
Projected score	—	NE 65.1 · NU 86.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NU -12.8	—
1H total	71.0	—
1H projected score	NE 29.1 · NU 41.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WLLWL	11-20	35%	7-9	—
NU WWWWW	18-16	53%	8-9	—

Venue/role: NE away; NU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UUOOO	20-11	65%	7-24
NU UUUUO	15-19	44%	15-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
NU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Northeastern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs HC	L59–76LU
Dec 6	vs PRIN	L57–70LU
Dec 9	@ BC	No recent meeting

Northwestern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs WIS	L73–85LO
Dec 5	vs BYU	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ MICH	L75–87WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NE 0–1 NUNU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NE 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 29, 2024-25	NE 60 @ NU 85	NU -14.5	NU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northeastern

31 games played

Straight up

7-24

23% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-11

65% overs · avg +7.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2423%

L W W L L W L L W L L L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2035%

L W W L L W W L W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1165%

O U U O U O O U U O O O O O O O O O O O O U U U U O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBU	L 75-76	-2.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@COLG	W 68-65	+5.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	@HARV	W 77-60	+5.5	W +22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUVM	L 74-85	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 159
Nov 20	@PRIN	L 57-70	+2.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 22	vsDUQ	W 93-86	+7.5	W +14.5	147.5	O 179
Nov 28	@WAKE	L 73-86	+17.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 3	@HC	L 59-76	-8.5	L −25.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 7	vsCCSU	W 73-56	-1.5	W +15.5	138.5	U 129
Dec 20	@SYR	L 83-91	+14.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 174
Dec 22	@URI	L 77-85	+10.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 162
Dec 29	@ELON	L 91-103	+4.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 194
Dec 31	@NCAT	W 85-74	-3.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 159
Jan 3	@CAM	L 82-97	+3.5	L −11.5	154.5	O 179
Jan 8	vsUNCW	L 78-87	+4.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 165
Jan 10	vsTOW	L 78-87	+2.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 15	vsELON	W 85-78	+3.5	W +10.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 19	@MONM	L 68-81	+3.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 22	vsSTBK	L 80-95	-3.5	L −18.5	148.5	O 175
Jan 24	@DREX	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 31	vsCOFC	L 84-89	+3.5	L −1.5	161.5	O 173
Feb 5	@HOF	L 63-80	+8.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 7	@STBK	L 55-69	+3.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 124
Feb 12	vsW&M	L 67-94	+5.5	L −21.5	167.5	U 161
Feb 19	vsDREX	L 61-70	-1.5	L −10.5	143.5	U 131
Feb 21	vsHOF	L 68-82	+6.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 26	@W&M	L 77-84	+11.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 161
Feb 28	@HAMP	L 65-76	+3.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 141
Mar 3	vsMONM	L 83-89	+3.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 172
Mar 6	vsNCAT	W 88-72	-2.5	W +13.5	151.5	O 160
Mar 7	vsDREX	L 77-84	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 75-76

−3.5

COLG

W 68-65

+8.5

HARV

W 77-60

+22.5

UVM

L 74-85

−12.5

PRIN

L 57-70

−10.5

DUQ

W 93-86

+14.5

WAKE

L 73-86

+4.5

L 59-76

−25.5

CCSU

W 73-56

+15.5

SYR

L 83-91

+6.5

URI

L 77-85

+2.5

ELON

L 91-103

−7.5

NCAT

W 85-74

+7.5

CAM

L 82-97

−11.5

UNCW

L 78-87

−4.5

TOW

L 78-87

−6.5

ELON

W 85-78

+10.5

MONM

L 68-81

−9.5

STBK

L 80-95

−18.5

DREX

L 78-83

−0.5

COFC

L 84-89

−1.5

HOF

L 63-80

−8.5

STBK

L 55-69

−10.5

W&M

L 67-94

−21.5

DREX

L 61-70

−10.5

HOF

L 68-82

−7.5

W&M

L 77-84

+4.5

HAMP

L 65-76

−7.5

MONM

L 83-89

−2.5

NCAT

W 88-72

+13.5

DREX

L 77-84

−2.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 75-76

+8.5

COLG

W 68-65

−14.5

HARV

W 77-60

−7.5

UVM

L 74-85

+24.5

PRIN

L 57-70

−18.5

DUQ

W 93-86

+31.5

WAKE

L 73-86

+4.5

L 59-76

−10.5

CCSU

W 73-56

−9.5

SYR

L 83-91

+33.5

URI

L 77-85

+17.5

ELON

L 91-103

+40.5

NCAT

W 85-74

+7.5

CAM

L 82-97

+24.5

UNCW

L 78-87

+22.5

TOW

L 78-87

+21.5

ELON

W 85-78

+5.5

MONM

L 68-81

+5.5

STBK

L 80-95

+26.5

DREX

L 78-83

+21.5

COFC

L 84-89

+11.5

HOF

L 63-80

−10.5

STBK

L 55-69

−29.5

W&M

L 67-94

−6.5

DREX

L 61-70

−12.5

HOF

L 68-82

+5.5

W&M

L 77-84

−3.5

HAMP

L 65-76

−4.5

MONM

L 83-89

+23.5

NCAT

W 88-72

+8.5

DREX

L 77-84

+22.5

over 20under 11avg +7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northwestern

34 games played

Straight up

15-19

44% wins

Against the spread

18-16

53% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-19

44% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1944%

W W W W L W L L L W W L W L L L L L W L W L L L L L W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1653%

L W W L L L L L L W W W W L W L L L W W W L L W W L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1944%

U U O O O O O O O U O U U O U O U U U U O U U O O U O U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMERC	W 70-47	-26.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 7	vsBU	W 76-52	-17.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 10	vsCLE	W 110-63	-23.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 14	@DEP	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUVA	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 161
Nov 23	vsSC	W 79-77	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 27	vsOKST	L 81-86	-2.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 167
Dec 3	@WIS	L 73-85	+10.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsOSU	L 82-86	+1.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsJKST	W 93-53	-30.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 16	vsVAL	W 86-70	-14.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsBTLR	L 58-61	+3.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 119
Dec 30	vsHOW	W 80-60	-19.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsMINN	L 78-84	-4.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 162
Jan 8	@MSU	L 66-76	+13.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 11	@RUTG	L 75-77	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 14	vsILL	L 68-79	+9.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsNEB	L 58-77	+4.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 21	@USC	W 74-68	+6.5	W +12.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 24	@UCLA	L 64-71	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 135
Jan 29	vsPSU	W 94-73	-7.5	W +13.5	148.5	O 167
Jan 31	vsWASH	L 62-76	-1.5	L −15.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 4	@ILL	L 44-84	+16.5	L −23.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 8	@IOWA	L 70-76	+10.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 146
Feb 11	vsMICH	L 75-87	+15.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 14	@NEB	L 49-68	+13.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 117
Feb 18	vsMD	W 78-74	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 24	@IU	W 72-68	+9.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 140
Feb 28	vsORE	W 63-62	-3.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 125
Mar 4	vsPUR	L 66-70	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 136
Mar 7	@MINN	L 66-67	+4.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 133
Mar 10	vsPSU	W 76-66	-4.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 142
Mar 11	vsIU	W 74-61	+6.5	W +19.5	142.5	U 135
Mar 12	vsPUR	L 68-81	+13.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−3.5

W 76-52

+6.5

CLE

W 110-63

+23.5

DEP

W 81-79

−3.5

UVA

L 78-83

−0.5

W 79-77

−2.5

OKST

L 81-86

−7.5

WIS

L 73-85

−1.5

OSU

L 82-86

−2.5

JKST

W 93-53

+9.5

VAL

W 86-70

+1.5

BTLR

L 58-61

+0.5

HOW

W 80-60

+0.5

MINN

L 78-84

−10.5

MSU

L 66-76

+3.5

RUTG

L 75-77

−6.5

ILL

L 68-79

−1.5

NEB

L 58-77

−14.5

USC

W 74-68

+12.5

UCLA

L 64-71

+0.5

PSU

W 94-73

+13.5

WASH

L 62-76

−15.5

ILL

L 44-84

−23.5

IOWA

L 70-76

+4.5

MICH

L 75-87

+3.5

NEB

L 49-68

−5.5

W 78-74

−3.5

W 72-68

+13.5

ORE

W 63-62

−2.5

PUR

L 66-70

+8.5

MINN

L 66-67

+3.5

PSU

W 76-66

+5.5

W 74-61

+19.5

PUR

L 68-81

+0.5

covered 18didn’t cover 16avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−23.5

W 76-52

−8.5

CLE

W 110-63

+21.5

DEP

W 81-79

+14.5

UVA

L 78-83

+11.5

W 79-77

+9.5

OKST

L 81-86

+7.5

WIS

L 73-85

+2.5

OSU

L 82-86

+12.5

JKST

W 93-53

−0.5

VAL

W 86-70

+10.5

BTLR

L 58-61

−35.5

HOW

W 80-60

−8.5

MINN

L 78-84

+23.5

MSU

L 66-76

−1.5

RUTG

L 75-77

+7.5

ILL

L 68-79

−4.5

NEB

L 58-77

−14.5

USC

W 74-68

−7.5

UCLA

L 64-71

−8.5

PSU

W 94-73

+18.5

WASH

L 62-76

−8.5

ILL

L 44-84

−21.5

IOWA

L 70-76

+6.5

MICH

L 75-87

+8.5

NEB

L 49-68

−29.5

W 78-74

+9.5

W 72-68

−5.5

ORE

W 63-62

−16.5

PUR

L 66-70

−9.5

MINN

L 66-67

−0.5

PSU

W 76-66

−1.5

W 74-61

−7.5

PUR

L 68-81

+9.5

over 15under 19avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northwestern has the better starters

Position by position: Northeastern 0, Northwestern 2, even 3

NortheasternBetterNorthwestern

G M. Loughnane10.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.8 ast Score 45

No call

G L. Pratt TR17 pts · 1.7 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked

G R. King TR5.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46

NUBig

F J. Karasinski TR21.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 97

G M. Newton5.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

No call

F C. Smith TR11.9 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48

G R. Williams7.4 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

Even

F L. McEldon TR11.7 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82

C P. Pinter3.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5

NUBig

F O. Federiko TR8.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61

NortheasternBetterNorthwestern

NE offense194th of 366 · -6.0

NUBig

NU defense42nd of 366 · +2.7

NE defense263rd of 366 · -6.8

NUBig

NU offense67th of 366 · +1.8

Backcourt-0.9 · 4 players

NUSmall

Backcourt+0.9 · 1 player

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

NUBig

Frontcourt+7.1 · 4 players

Bench-1.8 · 3 players

Even

Bench-2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNE betterNU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Northeastern

Guards

M. Loughnane31 minR. King19 min · TRM. Newton17 minR. Williams15 minL. Bond14 min · TRD. GrosberNew

Forwards

B. Young5 min · TRJ. IcitovicNewD. JungNewS. BaptisteNew

Centers

P. Pinter14 minL. Koelsch9 min

Northwestern

Guards

L. Pratt33 min · TRA. Ciaravino22 minJ. West22 minA. Kostic12 min · TRD. Williams9 min · TRP. Gill4 min

Forwards

J. Karasinski30 min · TRC. Smith30 min · TRL. McEldon26 min · TRO. Federiko23 min · TRR. Soulis20 min · TRE. EschmeyerNew

Centers

S. GhaiNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NE74.9 #168

NU73.2 #220

Points per possession

NE1.07 #210

NU1.12 #100

Pace (possessions)

NE69.9 #120

NU65.5 #328

Shooting

Effective FG%

NE52.4 #130

NU51.7 #159

3-point %

NE33.7 #187

NU33.0 #232

3-point attempt rate

NE37.8 #218

NU34.0 #296

Free throw rate

NE29.4 #324

NU33.9 #213

Possessions

Turnover rate

NE16.3 #159

NU13.1 #6

Offensive rebound rate

NE27.3 #286

NU28.1 #260

Assists per game

NE15.3 #75

NU17.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

NE80.9 #331

NU72.0 #106

Points allowed per possession

NE1.16 #335

NU1.09 #210

Opponent effective FG%

NE56.4 #351

NU51.0 #157

Opponent 3-point %

NE35.8 #297

NU33.4 #145

Turnovers forced

NE16.8 #163

NU17.5 #120

Defensive rebound rate

NE69.8 #169

NU65.3 #332

Steals per game

NE7.0 #131

NU5.8 #256

Blocks per game

NE3.0 #229

NU3.6 #131

NE		NU
Scoring
74.9 #168	Points per game	73.2 #220
1.07 #210	Points per possession	1.12 #100
69.9 #120	Pace (possessions)	65.5 #328
Shooting
52.4 #130	Effective FG%	51.7 #159
33.7 #187	3-point %	33.0 #232
37.8 #218	3-point attempt rate	34.0 #296
29.4 #324	Free throw rate	33.9 #213
Possessions
16.3 #159	Turnover rate	13.1 #6
27.3 #286	Offensive rebound rate	28.1 #260
15.3 #75	Assists per game	17.2 #18
Defense
80.9 #331	Points allowed	72.0 #106
1.16 #335	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #210
56.4 #351	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #157
35.8 #297	Opponent 3-point %	33.4 #145
16.8 #163	Turnovers forced	17.5 #120
69.8 #169	Defensive rebound rate	65.3 #332
7.0 #131	Steals per game	5.8 #256
3.0 #229	Blocks per game	3.6 #131

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Northeastern

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Drexel77–84
Wvs NC A&T88–72
Lvs Monmouth83–89
L@ Hampton65–76
L@ William & Mary77–84

A week or more of rest.

Northwestern

15-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue68–81
Wvs Indiana74–61
Wvs Penn State76–66
L@ Minnesota66–67
Lvs Purdue66–70

A week or more of rest.

Northeastern Huskies at Northwestern Wildcats

What could decide it: NU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Northeastern

Northwestern

Northwestern has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Northeastern

Northwestern