Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 9:00 PM ETWelsh-Ryan Arena · at Northwestern · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wisconsin and Northwestern
WIS	This season	NU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WIS 77–76 · win probability WIS 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WIS has more of the edges

WIS 3, NU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WISBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WIS 29.1%, NU 28.1%. Defensive: WIS 71.8%, NU 65.3%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: WIS plays 70.0 a game (119th fastest), NU 65.5 (328th). Faster games mean more points

NUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WIS 12.8%, NU 13.1%. Forced: WIS 14.3%, NU 17.5%

WISSmall

Three-pointers

WIS hits 36.2% and allows 33.5%; NU hits 33.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 52.1% and 34.0% of their shots

WISSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WIS 54%, NU 24%. Transfers in: WIS 3, NU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

NUSmall

Home court

NU at home. This season: NU 0-0 at home, WIS 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WIS 54.5 and allows 51.4; NU 51.7 and allows 51.0

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: WIS 31.5, NU 33.9. Allowed: WIS 29.9, NU 34.8

Even

NU offense vs WIS defense

Offense 67th of 366 against a defense 40th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WIS has played the 24th-hardest schedule, NU the 36th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

WIS offense vs NU defense

Offense 44th of 366 against a defense 42nd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WIS -0.8	—
Total	—	152.3	—
Projected score	—	WIS 76.6 · NU 75.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WIS -0.6	—
1H total	71.2	—
1H projected score	WIS 35.9 · NU 35.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS WLWWL	21-14	60%	7-4	—
NU WWWWW	18-16	53%	8-9	—

Venue/role: WIS away; NU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS OOOUO	22-13	63%	24-11
NU UUUUO	15-19	44%	15-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
NU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wisconsin

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ MARQ	W96–76WO
Dec 8	vs PUR	W97–93WO
Dec 12	vs VILL	L66–76LU

Northwestern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs BYU	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ MICH	L75–87WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

WIS 6–2 NUWIS leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · WIS has won the last 5 meetings · WIS 5-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	NU 73 @ WIS 85	WIS -10.5	WIS W
Mar 13, 2024-25	NU 63 vs WIS 70	WIS -8.5	NU W
Feb 1, 2024-25	WIS 75 @ NU 69	NU +4.5	WIS W
Mar 15, 2023-24	WIS 70 vs NU 61	NU +5.5	WIS W
Jan 13, 2023-24	NU 63 @ WIS 71	WIS -7.5	WIS W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wisconsin

35 games played

Straight up

24-11

69% wins

Against the spread

21-14

60% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-13

63% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1169%

W W W W L W L W W L L W W L W W W W W L W W L W W L W L W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

21-1460%

W L W L L W L W W L L W W L W W W L W L L W W W W L W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1363%

O O U O O O U O O U U U U O U O O O O U U O U O O U O O O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCAM	W 96-64	-20.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 7	vsNIU	W 97-72	-28.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 11	vsBALL	W 86-55	-26.5	W +4.5	156.5	U 141
Nov 17	vsSIUE	W 94-69	-25.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 163
Nov 21	@BYU	L 70-98	+4.5	L −23.5	165.5	O 168
Nov 27	vsPROV	W 104-83	-6.5	W +14.5	166.5	O 187
Nov 28	vsTCU	L 63-74	-5.5	L −16.5	157.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsNU	W 85-73	-10.5	W +1.5	155.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsMARQ	W 96-76	-11.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 172
Dec 10	@NEB	L 60-90	+1.5	L −28.5	158.5	U 150
Dec 19	vsVILL	L 66-76	-3.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 142
Dec 22	vsCMU	W 88-61	-26.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 149
Dec 30	vsMILW	W 80-60	-19.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsPUR	L 73-89	+5.5	L −10.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 6	vsUCLA	W 80-72	-3.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 152
Jan 10	@MICH	W 91-88	+19.5	W +22.5	169.5	O 179
Jan 13	@MINN	W 78-75	-1.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 153
Jan 17	vsRUTG	W 96-87	-15.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 183
Jan 22	@PSU	W 98-71	-5.5	W +21.5	157.5	O 169
Jan 25	vsUSC	L 71-73	-7.5	L −9.5	158.5	U 144
Jan 28	vsMINN	W 67-63	-9.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 130
Jan 31	vsOSU	W 92-82	-4.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 174
Feb 7	@IU	L 77-78	+3.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 10	@ILL	W 92-90	+9.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 182
Feb 13	vsMSU	W 92-71	+1.5	W +22.5	149.5	O 163
Feb 17	@OSU	L 69-86	+1.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 22	vsIOWA	W 84-71	-2.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 25	@ORE	L 71-85	-5.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 156
Feb 28	@WASH	W 90-73	-1.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 163
Mar 4	vsMD	W 78-45	-14.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 123
Mar 7	@PUR	W 97-93	+9.5	W +13.5	154.5	O 190
Mar 12	vsWASH	W 85-82	-6.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 167
Mar 13	vsILL	W 91-88	+8.5	W +11.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 14	vsMICH	L 65-68	+12.5	W +9.5	161.5	U 133
Mar 19	vsHPU	L 82-83	-10.5	L −11.5	161.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAM

W 96-64

+11.5

NIU

W 97-72

−3.5

BALL

W 86-55

+4.5

SIUE

W 94-69

−0.5

BYU

L 70-98

−23.5

PROV

W 104-83

+14.5

TCU

L 63-74

−16.5

W 85-73

+1.5

MARQ

W 96-76

+8.5

NEB

L 60-90

−28.5

VILL

L 66-76

−13.5

CMU

W 88-61

+0.5

MILW

W 80-60

+0.5

PUR

L 73-89

−10.5

UCLA

W 80-72

+4.5

MICH

W 91-88

+22.5

MINN

W 78-75

+1.5

RUTG

W 96-87

−6.5

PSU

W 98-71

+21.5

USC

L 71-73

−9.5

MINN

W 67-63

−5.5

OSU

W 92-82

+5.5

L 77-78

+2.5

ILL

W 92-90

+11.5

MSU

W 92-71

+22.5

OSU

L 69-86

−15.5

IOWA

W 84-71

+10.5

ORE

L 71-85

−19.5

WASH

W 90-73

+15.5

W 78-45

+18.5

PUR

W 97-93

+13.5

WASH

W 85-82

−3.5

ILL

W 91-88

+11.5

MICH

L 65-68

+9.5

HPU

L 82-83

−11.5

covered 21didn’t cover 14avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAM

W 96-64

+8.5

NIU

W 97-72

+11.5

BALL

W 86-55

−15.5

SIUE

W 94-69

+16.5

BYU

L 70-98

+2.5

PROV

W 104-83

+20.5

TCU

L 63-74

−20.5

W 85-73

+2.5

MARQ

W 96-76

+11.5

NEB

L 60-90

−8.5

VILL

L 66-76

−10.5

CMU

W 88-61

−3.5

MILW

W 80-60

−17.5

PUR

L 73-89

+8.5

UCLA

W 80-72

−0.5

MICH

W 91-88

+9.5

MINN

W 78-75

+6.5

RUTG

W 96-87

+33.5

PSU

W 98-71

+11.5

USC

L 71-73

−14.5

MINN

W 67-63

−16.5

OSU

W 92-82

+18.5

L 77-78

−2.5

ILL

W 92-90

+28.5

MSU

W 92-71

+13.5

OSU

L 69-86

−2.5

IOWA

W 84-71

+7.5

ORE

L 71-85

+3.5

WASH

W 90-73

+9.5

W 78-45

−30.5

PUR

W 97-93

+35.5

WASH

W 85-82

+9.5

ILL

W 91-88

+20.5

MICH

L 65-68

−28.5

HPU

L 82-83

+3.5

over 22under 13avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northwestern

34 games played

Straight up

15-19

44% wins

Against the spread

18-16

53% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-19

44% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1944%

W W W W L W L L L W W L W L L L L L W L W L L L L L W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1653%

L W W L L L L L L W W W W L W L L L W W W L L W W L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1944%

U U O O O O O O O U O U U O U O U U U U O U U O O U O U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMERC	W 70-47	-26.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 7	vsBU	W 76-52	-17.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 10	vsCLE	W 110-63	-23.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 14	@DEP	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUVA	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 161
Nov 23	vsSC	W 79-77	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 27	vsOKST	L 81-86	-2.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 167
Dec 3	@WIS	L 73-85	+10.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsOSU	L 82-86	+1.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsJKST	W 93-53	-30.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 16	vsVAL	W 86-70	-14.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsBTLR	L 58-61	+3.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 119
Dec 30	vsHOW	W 80-60	-19.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsMINN	L 78-84	-4.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 162
Jan 8	@MSU	L 66-76	+13.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 11	@RUTG	L 75-77	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 14	vsILL	L 68-79	+9.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsNEB	L 58-77	+4.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 21	@USC	W 74-68	+6.5	W +12.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 24	@UCLA	L 64-71	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 135
Jan 29	vsPSU	W 94-73	-7.5	W +13.5	148.5	O 167
Jan 31	vsWASH	L 62-76	-1.5	L −15.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 4	@ILL	L 44-84	+16.5	L −23.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 8	@IOWA	L 70-76	+10.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 146
Feb 11	vsMICH	L 75-87	+15.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 14	@NEB	L 49-68	+13.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 117
Feb 18	vsMD	W 78-74	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 24	@IU	W 72-68	+9.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 140
Feb 28	vsORE	W 63-62	-3.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 125
Mar 4	vsPUR	L 66-70	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 136
Mar 7	@MINN	L 66-67	+4.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 133
Mar 10	vsPSU	W 76-66	-4.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 142
Mar 11	vsIU	W 74-61	+6.5	W +19.5	142.5	U 135
Mar 12	vsPUR	L 68-81	+13.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−3.5

W 76-52

+6.5

CLE

W 110-63

+23.5

DEP

W 81-79

−3.5

UVA

L 78-83

−0.5

W 79-77

−2.5

OKST

L 81-86

−7.5

WIS

L 73-85

−1.5

OSU

L 82-86

−2.5

JKST

W 93-53

+9.5

VAL

W 86-70

+1.5

BTLR

L 58-61

+0.5

HOW

W 80-60

+0.5

MINN

L 78-84

−10.5

MSU

L 66-76

+3.5

RUTG

L 75-77

−6.5

ILL

L 68-79

−1.5

NEB

L 58-77

−14.5

USC

W 74-68

+12.5

UCLA

L 64-71

+0.5

PSU

W 94-73

+13.5

WASH

L 62-76

−15.5

ILL

L 44-84

−23.5

IOWA

L 70-76

+4.5

MICH

L 75-87

+3.5

NEB

L 49-68

−5.5

W 78-74

−3.5

W 72-68

+13.5

ORE

W 63-62

−2.5

PUR

L 66-70

+8.5

MINN

L 66-67

+3.5

PSU

W 76-66

+5.5

W 74-61

+19.5

PUR

L 68-81

+0.5

covered 18didn’t cover 16avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−23.5

W 76-52

−8.5

CLE

W 110-63

+21.5

DEP

W 81-79

+14.5

UVA

L 78-83

+11.5

W 79-77

+9.5

OKST

L 81-86

+7.5

WIS

L 73-85

+2.5

OSU

L 82-86

+12.5

JKST

W 93-53

−0.5

VAL

W 86-70

+10.5

BTLR

L 58-61

−35.5

HOW

W 80-60

−8.5

MINN

L 78-84

+23.5

MSU

L 66-76

−1.5

RUTG

L 75-77

+7.5

ILL

L 68-79

−4.5

NEB

L 58-77

−14.5

USC

W 74-68

−7.5

UCLA

L 64-71

−8.5

PSU

W 94-73

+18.5

WASH

L 62-76

−8.5

ILL

L 44-84

−21.5

IOWA

L 70-76

+6.5

MICH

L 75-87

+8.5

NEB

L 49-68

−29.5

W 78-74

+9.5

W 72-68

−5.5

ORE

W 63-62

−16.5

PUR

L 66-70

−9.5

MINN

L 66-67

−0.5

PSU

W 76-66

−1.5

W 74-61

−7.5

PUR

L 68-81

+9.5

over 15under 19avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wisconsin has the better starters

Position by position: Wisconsin 2, Northwestern 1, even 2

WisconsinBetterNorthwestern

G E. Elmer TR12.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68

No call

G L. Pratt TR17 pts · 1.7 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked

G T. Autry TR10.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61

NUBig

F J. Karasinski TR21.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 97

G B. Carrington8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90

WISBig

F C. Smith TR11.9 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48

F N. Winter13.1 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96

Even

F L. McEldon TR11.7 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82

F A. Rapp9.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83

WISSmall

F O. Federiko TR8.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61

WisconsinBetterNorthwestern

WIS offense44th of 366 · +4.5

Even

NU defense42nd of 366 · +2.7

WIS defense40th of 366 · +2.9

Even

NU offense67th of 366 · +1.8

Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players

WISSmall

Backcourt+0.9 · 1 player

Frontcourt+6.7 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+7.1 · 4 players

Bench-2.6 · 5 players

Even

Bench-2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWIS betterNU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wisconsin

Guards

E. Elmer31 min · TRT. Autry29 min · TRB. Carrington18 minJ. Janicki17 minH. Jones7 minZ. Kinziger6 min

Forwards

N. Winter31 minA. Rapp23 minV. Onuetu18 min · TRW. Garlock7 minI. RiddleNew

Northwestern

Guards

L. Pratt33 min · TRA. Ciaravino22 minJ. West22 minA. Kostic12 min · TRD. Williams9 min · TRP. Gill4 min

Forwards

J. Karasinski30 min · TRC. Smith30 min · TRL. McEldon26 min · TRO. Federiko23 min · TRR. Soulis20 min · TRE. EschmeyerNew

Centers

S. GhaiNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WIS83.0 #28

NU73.2 #220

Points per possession

WIS1.18 #27

NU1.12 #100

Pace (possessions)

WIS70.0 #119

NU65.5 #328

Shooting

Effective FG%

WIS54.5 #52

NU51.7 #159

3-point %

WIS36.2 #50

NU33.0 #232

3-point attempt rate

WIS52.1 #6

NU34.0 #296

Free throw rate

WIS31.5 #267

NU33.9 #213

Possessions

Turnover rate

WIS12.8 #4

NU13.1 #6

Offensive rebound rate

WIS29.1 #232

NU28.1 #260

Assists per game

WIS16.0 #48

NU17.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

WIS76.1 #221

NU72.0 #106

Points allowed per possession

WIS1.09 #193

NU1.09 #210

Opponent effective FG%

WIS51.4 #178

NU51.0 #157

Opponent 3-point %

WIS33.5 #152

NU33.4 #145

Turnovers forced

WIS14.3 #327

NU17.5 #120

Defensive rebound rate

WIS71.8 #74

NU65.3 #332

Steals per game

WIS5.6 #287

NU5.8 #256

Blocks per game

WIS3.1 #198

NU3.6 #131

WIS		NU
Scoring
83.0 #28	Points per game	73.2 #220
1.18 #27	Points per possession	1.12 #100
70.0 #119	Pace (possessions)	65.5 #328
Shooting
54.5 #52	Effective FG%	51.7 #159
36.2 #50	3-point %	33.0 #232
52.1 #6	3-point attempt rate	34.0 #296
31.5 #267	Free throw rate	33.9 #213
Possessions
12.8 #4	Turnover rate	13.1 #6
29.1 #232	Offensive rebound rate	28.1 #260
16.0 #48	Assists per game	17.2 #18
Defense
76.1 #221	Points allowed	72.0 #106
1.09 #193	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #210
51.4 #178	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #157
33.5 #152	Opponent 3-point %	33.4 #145
14.3 #327	Turnovers forced	17.5 #120
71.8 #74	Defensive rebound rate	65.3 #332
5.6 #287	Steals per game	5.8 #256
3.1 #198	Blocks per game	3.6 #131

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wisconsin

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs High Point82–83
Lvs Michigan65–68
Wvs Illinois91–88
Wvs Washington85–82
W@ Purdue97–93

A week or more of rest.

Northwestern

15-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue68–81
Wvs Indiana74–61
Wvs Penn State76–66
L@ Minnesota66–67
Lvs Purdue66–70

A week or more of rest.

Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats

What could decide it: WIS has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wisconsin

Northwestern

Wisconsin has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wisconsin

Northwestern