1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 1
  3. TEX @ LOU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 1

Texas Longhorns at Louisville Cardinals

KFC Yum! Center · at Louisville
#11TEXTexas AP #7
@
#14LOULouisville AP #11
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TEXThis seasonLOU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LOU 80–78 · win probability LOU 59%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LOU has more of the edges

TEX 0, LOU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LOUSmall
Three-pointers
TEX hits 35.1% and allows 34.7%; LOU hits 36.0% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 35.8% and 52.9% of their shots
LOUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: TEX 54.1 and allows 50.8; LOU 56.5 and allows 48.7
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: TEX plays 68.7 a game (199th fastest), LOU 71.0 (77th). Faster games mean more points
LOUSmall
Home court
LOU at home. This season: LOU 0-0 at home, TEX 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TEX 35.4%, LOU 32.8%. Defensive: TEX 73.1%, LOU 72.5%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TEX 15.0%, LOU 16.8%. Forced: TEX 13.0%, LOU 16.7%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: TEX 44.2, LOU 33.1. Allowed: TEX 39.6, LOU 33.0
Context
Schedule so far
TEX has played the 27th-hardest schedule, LOU the 44th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
TEX offense vs LOU defense
Offense 7th of 366 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TEX 14%, LOU 12%. Transfers in: TEX 5, LOU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
LOU offense vs TEX defense
Offense 15th of 366 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LOU -2.5—
Total—158.0—
Projected score—TEX 77.7 · LOU 80.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLOU -1.4—
1H total73.8—
1H projected scoreTEX 36.2 · LOU 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Texas 0, Louisville 0, even 5
TexasBetterLouisville
G I. Johnson TR16.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 3 ast Score 98
Even
G J. Shelstad TR15.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.9 ast Score 92
G E. Freeman TR9.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85
Even
G S. Trimble TR14 pts · 3.8 reb · 3 ast Score 90
G M. Lewis TR14 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 86
Even
G D. Montgomery TR13.4 pts · 4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 92
F D. Punch TR14.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 96
Even
F F. Bidunga TR13.3 pts · 9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99
C M. Vokietaitis15.5 pts · 7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 95
Even
F L. Wells TR15.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 85
TexasBetterLouisville
TEX offense7th of 366 · +10.5
Even
LOU defense16th of 366 · +6.2
TEX defense17th of 366 · +6.2
Even
LOU offense15th of 366 · +9.3
Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt+9.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt+9.8 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+9.2 · 2 players
Bench+0.9 · 2 players
LOUBig
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTEX betterLOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Texas
Guards
I. Johnson31 min · TRE. Freeman27 min · TRM. Lewis27 min · TRA. Evans14 min · TRA. McDermott3 minB. OgdenNew
Forwards
D. Punch30 min · TRJ. ClarkNewM. SpearsNewC. ElkinsNew
Centers
M. Vokietaitis26 minL. ObiorahNew
Louisville
Guards
J. Shelstad35 min · TRS. Trimble33 min · TRD. Montgomery31 min · TRA. Wooley23 minK. Knox22 min · TRW. Hanke1 min
Forwards
F. Bidunga32 min · TRL. Wells31 min · TRA. Folgueiras21 min · TRB. ZhangNew
Centers
G. Dynes12 min · TRO. EkezieNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TEXLOU
Scoring
81.7 #34Points per game84.2 #18
1.19 #22Points per possession1.18 #29
68.7 #199Pace (possessions)71.0 #77
Shooting
54.1 #65Effective FG%56.5 #14
35.1 #1073-point %36.0 #58
35.8 #2543-point attempt rate52.9 #4
44.2 #7Free throw rate33.1 #236
Possessions
15.0 #68Turnover rate16.8 #184
35.4 #35Offensive rebound rate32.8 #93
12.1 #278Assists per game17.1 #23
Defense
76.1 #220Points allowed72.5 #119
1.11 #235Points allowed per possession1.02 #49
50.8 #144Opponent effective FG%48.7 #54
34.7 #230Opponent 3-point %32.3 #76
13.0 #356Turnovers forced16.7 #172
73.1 #35Defensive rebound rate72.5 #50
5.5 #298Steals per game6.8 #148
2.9 #239Blocks per game3.3 #179
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue77–79
  • Wvs Gonzaga74–68
  • Wvs BYU79–71
  • Wvs NC State68–66
  • Lvs Ole Miss66–76

A week or more of rest.

Louisville

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan St69–77
  • Wvs South Florida83–79
  • Lvs Miami73–78
  • Wvs SMU62–58
  • W@ Miami92–89

A week or more of rest.