Holy Cross Crusaders at Northeastern Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 12:00 AM ETCabot Center · at Northeastern

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Holy Cross and Northeastern
HC	This season	NE
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NE 79–70 · win probability NE 78%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NE has more of the edges

HC 1, NE 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: HC 31.5, NE 29.4. Allowed: HC 27.6, NE 41.9

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: HC plays 65.8 a game (320th fastest), NE 69.9 (120th). Faster games mean more points

NESmall

NE offense vs HC defense

Offense 194th of 366 against a defense 269th, on the model’s ratings

NESmall

HC offense vs NE defense

Offense 335th of 366 against a defense 263rd, on the model’s ratings

NESmall

Home court

NE at home. This season: NE 0-0 at home, HC 0-0 away

NESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: HC 49.8 and allows 54.8; NE 52.4 and allows 56.4

NESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HC 15.3%, NE 16.3%. Forced: HC 14.1%, NE 16.8%

Context

Schedule so far

HC has played the 225th-hardest schedule, NE the 185th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HC 21.9%, NE 27.3%. Defensive: HC 73.0%, NE 69.8%

Even

Three-pointers

HC hits 32.5% and allows 34.0%; NE hits 33.7% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 37.3% and 37.8% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HC 51%, NE 43%. Transfers in: HC 0, NE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NE -8.7	—
Total	—	148.3	—
Projected score	—	HC 69.8 · NE 78.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NE -5.0	—
1H total	69.4	—
1H projected score	HC 32.2 · NE 37.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HC WLLWW	16-15	52%	9-9	—
NE WLLWL	11-20	35%	2-10	—

Venue/role: HC away; NE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HC UUUOU	15-16	48%	9-22
NE UUOOO	20-11	65%	7-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HC	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NE	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Holy Cross

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ STO	L79–81LO

Northeastern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs PRIN	L57–70LU
Dec 9	@ BC	No recent meeting
Dec 13	@ UVM	L74–85LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HC 1–1 NESeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · HC 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	NE 59 @ HC 76	HC +8.5	HC W
Dec 10, 2022-23	HC 58 @ NE 59	NE -9.5	HC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Holy Cross

31 games played

Straight up

9-22

29% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2229%

L L L W L L L W W L L W L L W W L L L L L L W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W W L L W W W L L W L L W W L L L W W L W W L L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

O U O U U U O U O O U U U U O O U O O O U U O O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PROV	L 79-89	+23.5	W +13.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 8	@BYU	L 53-98	+38.5	L −6.5	165.5	U 151
Nov 10	@UTAH	L 69-87	+21.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 16	vsHAMP	W 67-61	+4.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 128
Nov 18	@BRWN	L 49-68	+2.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 117
Nov 21	@SHU	L 66-79	+7.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 24	vsSIE	L 69-73	+9.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 3	vsNE	W 76-59	+8.5	W +25.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 6	@FOR	W 70-69	+10.5	W +11.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 16	vsDART	L 64-89	+1.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 20	@HARV	L 53-81	+10.5	L −17.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 31	vsBUCK	W 65-58	+1.5	W +8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsNAVY	L 58-65	+5.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 123
Jan 7	@LEH	L 58-66	+2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 124
Jan 10	@AMER	W 84-73	+8.5	W +19.5	137.5	O 157
Jan 14	vsARMY	W 82-75	-4.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 157
Jan 17	@LAF	L 55-74	+2.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 21	@NAVY	L 68-85	+11.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 153
Jan 24	vsAMER	L 67-76	+4.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 28	@COLG	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 31	@ARMY	L 68-69	+2.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 2	vsBU	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsLEH	W 76-67	+1.5	W +10.5	137.5	O 143
Feb 11	vsCOLG	L 70-74	+8.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 15	@L-MD	L 73-83	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 156
Feb 18	vsLAF	L 83-86	-1.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 169
Feb 22	@BUCK	W 72-63	+2.5	W +11.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 25	@BU	L 63-78	+8.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 28	vsL-MD	L 62-76	-1.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 138
Mar 3	@LAF	W 82-77	+4.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 159
Mar 5	@LEH	L 66-69	+5.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+13.5

BYU

L 53-98

−6.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+3.5

HAMP

W 67-61

+10.5

BRWN

L 49-68

−16.5

SHU

L 66-79

−5.5

SIE

L 69-73

+5.5

W 76-59

+25.5

FOR

W 70-69

+11.5

DART

L 64-89

−23.5

HARV

L 53-81

−17.5

BUCK

W 65-58

+8.5

NAVY

L 58-65

−1.5

LEH

L 58-66

−5.5

AMER

W 84-73

+19.5

ARMY

W 82-75

+2.5

LAF

L 55-74

−16.5

NAVY

L 68-85

−5.5

AMER

L 67-76

−4.5

COLG

L 74-79

+5.5

ARMY

L 68-69

+1.5

L 64-72

−5.5

LEH

W 76-67

+10.5

COLG

L 70-74

+4.5

L-MD

L 73-83

−5.5

LAF

L 83-86

−4.5

BUCK

W 72-63

+11.5

L 63-78

−6.5

L-MD

L 62-76

−15.5

LAF

W 82-77

+9.5

LEH

L 66-69

+2.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+15.5

BYU

L 53-98

−14.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+0.5

HAMP

W 67-61

−20.5

BRWN

L 49-68

−24.5

SHU

L 66-79

−7.5

SIE

L 69-73

+4.5

W 76-59

−10.5

FOR

W 70-69

+0.5

DART

L 64-89

+5.5

HARV

L 53-81

−2.5

BUCK

W 65-58

−10.5

NAVY

L 58-65

−14.5

LEH

L 58-66

−13.5

AMER

W 84-73

+19.5

ARMY

W 82-75

+14.5

LAF

L 55-74

−9.5

NAVY

L 68-85

+18.5

AMER

L 67-76

+3.5

COLG

L 74-79

+8.5

ARMY

L 68-69

−7.5

L 64-72

−3.5

LEH

W 76-67

+5.5

COLG

L 70-74

+1.5

L-MD

L 73-83

+9.5

LAF

L 83-86

+29.5

BUCK

W 72-63

−7.5

L 63-78

−0.5

L-MD

L 62-76

−13.5

LAF

W 82-77

+17.5

LEH

L 66-69

−7.5

over 15under 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northeastern

31 games played

Straight up

7-24

23% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-11

65% overs · avg +7.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2423%

L W W L L W L L W L L L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2035%

L W W L L W W L W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1165%

O U U O U O O U U O O O O O O O O O O O O U U U U O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBU	L 75-76	-2.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@COLG	W 68-65	+5.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	@HARV	W 77-60	+5.5	W +22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUVM	L 74-85	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 159
Nov 20	@PRIN	L 57-70	+2.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 22	vsDUQ	W 93-86	+7.5	W +14.5	147.5	O 179
Nov 28	@WAKE	L 73-86	+17.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 3	@HC	L 59-76	-8.5	L −25.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 7	vsCCSU	W 73-56	-1.5	W +15.5	138.5	U 129
Dec 20	@SYR	L 83-91	+14.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 174
Dec 22	@URI	L 77-85	+10.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 162
Dec 29	@ELON	L 91-103	+4.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 194
Dec 31	@NCAT	W 85-74	-3.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 159
Jan 3	@CAM	L 82-97	+3.5	L −11.5	154.5	O 179
Jan 8	vsUNCW	L 78-87	+4.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 165
Jan 10	vsTOW	L 78-87	+2.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 15	vsELON	W 85-78	+3.5	W +10.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 19	@MONM	L 68-81	+3.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 22	vsSTBK	L 80-95	-3.5	L −18.5	148.5	O 175
Jan 24	@DREX	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 31	vsCOFC	L 84-89	+3.5	L −1.5	161.5	O 173
Feb 5	@HOF	L 63-80	+8.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 7	@STBK	L 55-69	+3.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 124
Feb 12	vsW&M	L 67-94	+5.5	L −21.5	167.5	U 161
Feb 19	vsDREX	L 61-70	-1.5	L −10.5	143.5	U 131
Feb 21	vsHOF	L 68-82	+6.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 26	@W&M	L 77-84	+11.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 161
Feb 28	@HAMP	L 65-76	+3.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 141
Mar 3	vsMONM	L 83-89	+3.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 172
Mar 6	vsNCAT	W 88-72	-2.5	W +13.5	151.5	O 160
Mar 7	vsDREX	L 77-84	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 75-76

−3.5

COLG

W 68-65

+8.5

HARV

W 77-60

+22.5

UVM

L 74-85

−12.5

PRIN

L 57-70

−10.5

DUQ

W 93-86

+14.5

WAKE

L 73-86

+4.5

L 59-76

−25.5

CCSU

W 73-56

+15.5

SYR

L 83-91

+6.5

URI

L 77-85

+2.5

ELON

L 91-103

−7.5

NCAT

W 85-74

+7.5

CAM

L 82-97

−11.5

UNCW

L 78-87

−4.5

TOW

L 78-87

−6.5

ELON

W 85-78

+10.5

MONM

L 68-81

−9.5

STBK

L 80-95

−18.5

DREX

L 78-83

−0.5

COFC

L 84-89

−1.5

HOF

L 63-80

−8.5

STBK

L 55-69

−10.5

W&M

L 67-94

−21.5

DREX

L 61-70

−10.5

HOF

L 68-82

−7.5

W&M

L 77-84

+4.5

HAMP

L 65-76

−7.5

MONM

L 83-89

−2.5

NCAT

W 88-72

+13.5

DREX

L 77-84

−2.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 75-76

+8.5

COLG

W 68-65

−14.5

HARV

W 77-60

−7.5

UVM

L 74-85

+24.5

PRIN

L 57-70

−18.5

DUQ

W 93-86

+31.5

WAKE

L 73-86

+4.5

L 59-76

−10.5

CCSU

W 73-56

−9.5

SYR

L 83-91

+33.5

URI

L 77-85

+17.5

ELON

L 91-103

+40.5

NCAT

W 85-74

+7.5

CAM

L 82-97

+24.5

UNCW

L 78-87

+22.5

TOW

L 78-87

+21.5

ELON

W 85-78

+5.5

MONM

L 68-81

+5.5

STBK

L 80-95

+26.5

DREX

L 78-83

+21.5

COFC

L 84-89

+11.5

HOF

L 63-80

−10.5

STBK

L 55-69

−29.5

W&M

L 67-94

−6.5

DREX

L 61-70

−12.5

HOF

L 68-82

+5.5

W&M

L 77-84

−3.5

HAMP

L 65-76

−4.5

MONM

L 83-89

+23.5

NCAT

W 88-72

+8.5

DREX

L 77-84

+22.5

over 20under 11avg +7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northeastern has the better starters

Position by position: Holy Cross 0, Northeastern 2, even 3

Holy CrossBetterNortheastern

G J. St. Germain4.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22

NESmall

G M. Loughnane10.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.8 ast Score 45

F J. Nugent11.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53

Even

G R. King TR5.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46

F A. Richard4.9 pts · 4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 1

No call

G M. Newton5.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

F D. Ryan4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 21

NEBig

G R. Williams7.4 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

F C. Hare2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

C P. Pinter3.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5

Holy CrossBetterNortheastern

HC offense335th of 366 · -10.9

NESmall

NE defense263rd of 366 · -6.8

HC defense269th of 366 · -6.8

NESmall

NE offense194th of 366 · -6.0

Backcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Even

Backcourt-0.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-6.1 · 4 players

NEBig

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

Bench-0.7 · 3 players

HCSmall

Bench-1.8 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestHC betterNE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Holy Cross

Guards

J. St. Germain15 minA. Mejia1 minA. AlijosiusNewK. HansonNewT. WilsonNewJ. GermanyNew

Forwards

J. Nugent30 minA. Richard27 minD. Ryan13 minC. Hare7 minJ. Haigh6 minE. Clark1 min

Centers

K. MgbejioforNew

Northeastern

Guards

M. Loughnane31 minR. King19 min · TRM. Newton17 minR. Williams15 minL. Bond14 min · TRD. GrosberNew

Forwards

B. Young5 min · TRJ. IcitovicNewD. JungNewS. BaptisteNew

Centers

P. Pinter14 minL. Koelsch9 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HC67.9 #314

NE74.9 #168

Points per possession

HC1.03 #288

NE1.07 #210

Pace (possessions)

HC65.8 #320

NE69.9 #120

Shooting

Effective FG%

HC49.8 #248

NE52.4 #130

3-point %

HC32.5 #252

NE33.7 #187

3-point attempt rate

HC37.3 #225

NE37.8 #218

Free throw rate

HC31.5 #268

NE29.4 #324

Possessions

Turnover rate

HC15.3 #83

NE16.3 #159

Offensive rebound rate

HC21.9 #356

NE27.3 #286

Assists per game

HC10.7 #346

NE15.3 #75

Defense

Points allowed

HC74.8 #182

NE80.9 #331

Points allowed per possession

HC1.14 #305

NE1.16 #335

Opponent effective FG%

HC54.8 #324

NE56.4 #351

Opponent 3-point %

HC34.0 #181

NE35.8 #297

Turnovers forced

HC14.1 #330

NE16.8 #163

Defensive rebound rate

HC73.0 #37

NE69.8 #169

Steals per game

HC5.5 #304

NE7.0 #131

Blocks per game

HC1.7 #355

NE3.0 #229

HC		NE
Scoring
67.9 #314	Points per game	74.9 #168
1.03 #288	Points per possession	1.07 #210
65.8 #320	Pace (possessions)	69.9 #120
Shooting
49.8 #248	Effective FG%	52.4 #130
32.5 #252	3-point %	33.7 #187
37.3 #225	3-point attempt rate	37.8 #218
31.5 #268	Free throw rate	29.4 #324
Possessions
15.3 #83	Turnover rate	16.3 #159
21.9 #356	Offensive rebound rate	27.3 #286
10.7 #346	Assists per game	15.3 #75
Defense
74.8 #182	Points allowed	80.9 #331
1.14 #305	Points allowed per possession	1.16 #335
54.8 #324	Opponent effective FG%	56.4 #351
34.0 #181	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #297
14.1 #330	Turnovers forced	16.8 #163
73.0 #37	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #169
5.5 #304	Steals per game	7.0 #131
1.7 #355	Blocks per game	3.0 #229

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Holy Cross

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh66–69
W@ Lafayette82–77
Lvs Loyola MD62–76
L@ Boston U63–78
W@ Bucknell72–63

A week or more of rest.

Northeastern

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Drexel77–84
Wvs NC A&T88–72
Lvs Monmouth83–89
L@ Hampton65–76
L@ William & Mary77–84

A week or more of rest.

Holy Cross Crusaders at Northeastern Huskies

What could decide it: NE has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Holy Cross

Northeastern

Northeastern has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Holy Cross

Northeastern