Pacific Tigers at Nevada Wolf Pack: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 10:00 PM ETLawlor Events Center · at Nevada

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacific and Nevada
PAC	This season	NEV
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEV 78–66 · win probability NEV 85%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEV has more of the edges

PAC 2, NEV 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NEVBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PAC 20.1%, NEV 14.8%. Forced: PAC 15.1%, NEV 17.0%

NEVBig

PAC offense vs NEV defense

Offense 195th of 366 against a defense 73rd, on the model’s ratings

NEVBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PAC 30.5, NEV 44.8. Allowed: PAC 36.3, NEV 38.9

PACSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PAC 52.2 and allows 50.0; NEV 50.0 and allows 51.1

NEVSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PAC 8%, NEV 38%. Transfers in: PAC 9, NEV 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

NEVSmall

Home court

NEV at home. This season: NEV 0-0 at home, PAC 0-0 away

PACSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PAC 35.3%, NEV 32.2%. Defensive: PAC 75.0%, NEV 73.1%

Even

NEV offense vs PAC defense

Offense 104th of 366 against a defense 147th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: PAC plays 66.1 a game (312th fastest), NEV 67.7 (243rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

PAC hits 35.8% and allows 34.7%; NEV hits 35.8% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 35.4% and 32.3% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

PAC has played the 122nd-hardest schedule, NEV the 94th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NEV -11.7	—
Total	—	144.1	—
Projected score	—	PAC 66.2 · NEV 77.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEV -6.9	—
1H total	67.4	—
1H projected score	PAC 30.3 · NEV 37.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PAC LWLWW	17-14	55%	7-8	—
NEV WLWWW	22-15	59%	12-7	—

Venue/role: PAC away; NEV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PAC OUUUU	11-20	35%	16-15
NEV OUOUU	20-17	54%	24-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PAC	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
NEV	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacific

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ STAN	L78–88WO
Dec 12	vs UVU	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ NMSU	No recent meeting

Nevada

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	vs LMU	L64–68LU
Dec 12	vs SHSU	W91–75WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PAC 0–2 NEVNEV leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · NEV has won the last 2 meetings · PAC 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2025-26	PAC 77 @ NEV 78	NEV -13.5	PAC W
Nov 15, 2023-24	PAC 39 @ NEV 88	NEV -13.5	NEV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacific

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-20

35% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

L W W L W W W W L L W L L W W L W L W W W L L W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

W L W L W W W W W L W L L W L L L L W W W L L W W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-2035%

O U U U U U U O U O O U O U O O U U O U U O U O U U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NEV	L 77-78	+13.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsLBSU	W 69-66	-12.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 135
Nov 15	@CSUF	W 85-73	-6.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 158
Nov 20	@FAU	L 59-82	+7.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsSTBK	W 86-58	-4.5	W +23.5	145.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsJAX	W 68-53	-2.5	W +12.5	135.5	U 121
Nov 29	vsSAC	W 68-54	-10.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 122
Dec 3	@AF	W 80-65	-5.5	W +9.5	134.5	O 145
Dec 6	@CAL	L 61-67	+7.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 128
Dec 16	@BYU	L 57-93	+23.5	L −12.5	149.5	O 150
Dec 21	vsNICH	W 95-82	-8.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 177
Dec 28	@USD	L 54-66	-2.5	L −14.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 30	@LMU	L 71-80	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 2	vsORST	W 84-53	-4.5	W +26.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 4	vsPEPP	W 74-69	-11.5	L −6.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 8	@PORT	L 89-90	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 179
Jan 10	vsUSD	W 77-70	-8.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 147
Jan 14	@SCU	L 69-85	+12.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 17	@ORST	W 81-64	+1.5	W +18.5	139.5	O 145
Jan 24	vsSEA	W 56-54	-1.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 110
Jan 28	vsPORT	W 74-51	-8.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 31	@SF	L 82-87	+4.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 169
Feb 4	vsSCU	L 56-71	+6.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 127
Feb 7	@PEPP	W 92-59	-7.5	W +25.5	142.5	O 151
Feb 11	vsLMU	W 65-59	-5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 124
Feb 14	vsSMC	L 61-72	+7.5	L −3.5	135.5	U 133
Feb 18	@WSU	L 70-87	+2.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 157
Feb 21	@GONZ	L 62-71	+22.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 133
Feb 28	vsSF	L 61-72	-3.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsSEA	W 61-58	-1.5	W +1.5	129.5	U 119
Mar 8	vsSCU	L 68-76	+9.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 77-78

+12.5

LBSU

W 69-66

−9.5

CSUF

W 85-73

+5.5

FAU

L 59-82

−15.5

STBK

W 86-58

+23.5

JAX

W 68-53

+12.5

SAC

W 68-54

+3.5

W 80-65

+9.5

CAL

L 61-67

+1.5

BYU

L 57-93

−12.5

NICH

W 95-82

+4.5

USD

L 54-66

−14.5

LMU

L 71-80

−5.5

ORST

W 84-53

+26.5

PEPP

W 74-69

−6.5

PORT

L 89-90

−4.5

USD

W 77-70

−1.5

SCU

L 69-85

−3.5

ORST

W 81-64

+18.5

SEA

W 56-54

+0.5

PORT

W 74-51

+14.5

L 82-87

−0.5

SCU

L 56-71

−8.5

PEPP

W 92-59

+25.5

LMU

W 65-59

+0.5

SMC

L 61-72

−3.5

WSU

L 70-87

−14.5

GONZ

L 62-71

+13.5

L 61-72

−14.5

SEA

W 61-58

+1.5

SCU

L 68-76

+1.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 77-78

+15.5

LBSU

W 69-66

−6.5

CSUF

W 85-73

−1.5

FAU

L 59-82

−13.5

STBK

W 86-58

−1.5

JAX

W 68-53

−14.5

SAC

W 68-54

−24.5

W 80-65

+10.5

CAL

L 61-67

−16.5

BYU

L 57-93

+0.5

NICH

W 95-82

+37.5

USD

L 54-66

−30.5

LMU

L 71-80

+11.5

ORST

W 84-53

−0.5

PEPP

W 74-69

+4.5

PORT

L 89-90

+34.5

USD

W 77-70

−0.5

SCU

L 69-85

−0.5

ORST

W 81-64

+5.5

SEA

W 56-54

−27.5

PORT

W 74-51

−17.5

L 82-87

+30.5

SCU

L 56-71

−24.5

PEPP

W 92-59

+8.5

LMU

W 65-59

−17.5

SMC

L 61-72

−2.5

WSU

L 70-87

+12.5

GONZ

L 62-71

−11.5

L 61-72

−9.5

SEA

W 61-58

−10.5

SCU

L 68-76

−4.5

over 11under 20avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nevada

37 games played

Straight up

24-13

65% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-17

54% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1365%

W W W L L W L W W W W W W W L W L W W L W W L W L L W W L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W L L L L W L W W W L W W L L W W W W W W W W L L L W W L L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1754%

U O O O O U O O U U O O U U U O U O O O U O O U U O O U O O U U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLT	W 77-50	-9.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 8	vsPAC	W 78-77	-13.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsSIU	W 86-81	-11.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 15	@SCU	L 83-98	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsUCD	L 71-75	-12.5	L −16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 22	vsUCSB	W 77-64	-5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 27	vsWASH	L 66-83	+3.5	L −13.5	145.5	O 149
Nov 28	vsSF	W 81-65	+5.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 2	vsUCSD	W 76-70	-5.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 7	@WSU	W 78-64	+2.5	W +16.5	145.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsDUQ	W 78-75	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 153
Dec 20	vsBOIS	W 81-66	+3.5	W +18.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 30	@CSU	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@FRES	W 66-65	-4.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 6	vsSDSU	L 68-73	-1.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsWYO	W 92-83	-3.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 175
Jan 14	@USU	L 62-71	+13.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 17	@AF	W 81-66	-14.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 20	vsSJSU	W 87-54	-16.5	W +16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@UNM	L 73-80	+8.5	W +1.5	150.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsGCU	W 66-60	-3.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 126
Jan 30	vsUNLV	W 89-76	-7.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 165
Feb 3	@BOIS	L 87-91	+6.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 178
Feb 7	vsFRES	W 69-59	-11.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 14	@SDSU	L 57-71	+7.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 128
Feb 17	@SJSU	L 71-87	-10.5	L −26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsUSU	W 80-77	+5.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsUNM	W 67-60	-1.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 127
Feb 28	@UNLV	L 83-85	-1.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 168
Mar 3	@WYO	L 73-83	-1.5	L −11.5	143.5	O 156
Mar 7	vsAF	W 74-59	-24.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsAF	W 80-45	-19.5	W +15.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 12	vsGCU	W 84-80	+3.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 164
Mar 13	vsUSU	L 66-79	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 145
Mar 18	vsMUR	W 89-75	-8.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 164
Mar 21	vsLIB	W 73-63	-7.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Mar 25	@AUB	L 69-75	+8.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 77-50

+17.5

PAC

W 78-77

−12.5

SIU

W 86-81

−6.5

SCU

L 83-98

−8.5

UCD

L 71-75

−16.5

UCSB

W 77-64

+7.5

WASH

L 66-83

−13.5

W 81-65

+21.5

UCSD

W 76-70

+0.5

WSU

W 78-64

+16.5

DUQ

W 78-75

−2.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+18.5

CSU

W 75-62

+14.5

FRES

W 66-65

−3.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−6.5

WYO

W 92-83

+5.5

USU

L 62-71

+4.5

W 81-66

+0.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+16.5

UNM

L 73-80

+1.5

GCU

W 66-60

+2.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+5.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+2.5

FRES

W 69-59

−1.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−6.5

SJSU

L 71-87

−26.5

USU

W 80-77

+8.5

UNM

W 67-60

+5.5

UNLV

L 83-85

−3.5

WYO

L 73-83

−11.5

W 74-59

−9.5

W 80-45

+15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+7.5

USU

L 66-79

−6.5

MUR

W 89-75

+5.5

LIB

W 73-63

+2.5

AUB

L 69-75

+2.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 77-50

−9.5

PAC

W 78-77

+15.5

SIU

W 86-81

+14.5

SCU

L 83-98

+36.5

UCD

L 71-75

+2.5

UCSB

W 77-64

−6.5

WASH

L 66-83

+3.5

W 81-65

+3.5

UCSD

W 76-70

−3.5

WSU

W 78-64

−3.5

DUQ

W 78-75

+1.5

BOIS

W 81-66

+5.5

CSU

W 75-62

−2.5

FRES

W 66-65

−15.5

SDSU

L 68-73

−0.5

WYO

W 92-83

+31.5

USU

L 62-71

−14.5

W 81-66

+12.5

SJSU

W 87-54

+3.5

UNM

L 73-80

+2.5

GCU

W 66-60

−17.5

UNLV

W 89-76

+17.5

BOIS

L 87-91

+36.5

FRES

W 69-59

−21.5

SDSU

L 57-71

−11.5

SJSU

L 71-87

+16.5

USU

W 80-77

+10.5

UNM

W 67-60

−21.5

UNLV

L 83-85

+17.5

WYO

L 73-83

+12.5

W 74-59

−11.5

W 80-45

−15.5

GCU

W 84-80

+26.5

USU

L 66-79

−0.5

MUR

W 89-75

+4.5

LIB

W 73-63

−10.5

AUB

L 69-75

−7.5

over 20under 17avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nevada has the better starters

Position by position: Pacific 0, Nevada 4, even 1

PacificBetterNevada

G J. Winston TR15.5 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 74

Even

G S. Phipps TR13.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 77

G C. Amundsen TR9.4 pts · 2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 34

NEVSmall

G K. Kensie TR10.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 54

G C. Jones TR3.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 17

NEVBig

G P. Bandelj TR12.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 57

F G. Ripp TR3.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 10

NEVBig

G V. Weems10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 84

F J. Pitt4.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 57

NEVSmall

F E. Price12.8 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 91

PacificBetterNevada

PAC offense195th of 366 · -6.1

NEVSmall

NEV defense73rd of 366 · +0.7

PAC defense147th of 366 · -3.2

Even

NEV offense104th of 366 · -1.4

Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players

NEVBig

Backcourt+2.1 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players

NEVBig

Frontcourt+3.4 · 1 player

Bench-1.2 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.3 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestPAC betterNEV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacific

Guards

J. Winston36 min · TRC. Amundsen30 min · TRC. Jones17 min · TRA. Nyorha10 min · TRD. Harris6 min · TRN. BuduNew

Forwards

G. Ripp17 min · TRJ. Pitt17 minJ. Thompson11 min · TRV. OsazeeNewJ. CarotNew

Centers

J. McFarland3 min · TRI. Matlekovic2 min · TR

Nevada

Guards

S. Phipps34 min · TRK. Kensie31 min · TRP. Bandelj31 min · TRV. Weems25 minP. White14 minM. Walker8 min

Forwards

E. Price30 minH. LucasNewK. SnyderNew

Centers

S. Majok12 min · TRC. Lath4 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PAC71.3 #262

NEV76.0 #141

Points per possession

PAC1.08 #176

NEV1.12 #96

Pace (possessions)

PAC66.1 #312

NEV67.7 #243

Shooting

Effective FG%

PAC52.2 #140

NEV50.0 #236

3-point %

PAC35.8 #65

NEV35.8 #70

3-point attempt rate

PAC35.4 #266

NEV32.3 #326

Free throw rate

PAC30.5 #297

NEV44.8 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

PAC20.1 #350

NEV14.8 #56

Offensive rebound rate

PAC35.3 #42

NEV32.2 #119

Assists per game

PAC14.9 #93

NEV14.5 #119

Defense

Points allowed

PAC69.8 #60

NEV71.5 #92

Points allowed per possession

PAC1.05 #93

NEV1.06 #101

Opponent effective FG%

PAC50.0 #101

NEV51.1 #166

Opponent 3-point %

PAC34.7 #233

NEV33.7 #168

Turnovers forced

PAC15.1 #281

NEV17.0 #150

Defensive rebound rate

PAC75.0 #8

NEV73.1 #33

Steals per game

PAC5.4 #309

NEV6.6 #168

Blocks per game

PAC2.2 #332

NEV3.8 #106

PAC		NEV
Scoring
71.3 #262	Points per game	76.0 #141
1.08 #176	Points per possession	1.12 #96
66.1 #312	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #243
Shooting
52.2 #140	Effective FG%	50.0 #236
35.8 #65	3-point %	35.8 #70
35.4 #266	3-point attempt rate	32.3 #326
30.5 #297	Free throw rate	44.8 #6
Possessions
20.1 #350	Turnover rate	14.8 #56
35.3 #42	Offensive rebound rate	32.2 #119
14.9 #93	Assists per game	14.5 #119
Defense
69.8 #60	Points allowed	71.5 #92
1.05 #93	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #101
50.0 #101	Opponent effective FG%	51.1 #166
34.7 #233	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #168
15.1 #281	Turnovers forced	17.0 #150
75.0 #8	Defensive rebound rate	73.1 #33
5.4 #309	Steals per game	6.6 #168
2.2 #332	Blocks per game	3.8 #106

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacific

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Santa Clara68–76
Wvs Seattle U61–58
Lvs San Francisco61–72
L@ Gonzaga62–71
L@ Washington St70–87

A week or more of rest.

Nevada

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Auburn69–75
Wvs Liberty73–63
Wvs Murray St89–75
Lvs Utah State66–79
Wvs Grand Canyon84–80

A week or more of rest.

Pacific Tigers at Nevada Wolf Pack

What could decide it: NEV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Pacific

Nevada

Nevada has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacific

Nevada