North Alabama Lions at DePaul Blue Demons: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 8:00 PM ETWintrust Arena · at DePaul

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: North Alabama and DePaul
UNA	This season	DEP
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEP 82–58 · win probability DEP 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEP has more of the edges

UNA 1, DEP 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DEPBig

UNA offense vs DEP defense

Offense 308th of 366 against a defense 31st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UNA has played the 294th-hardest schedule, DEP the 72nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

DEPBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNA 48.0 and allows 55.2; DEP 49.8 and allows 49.3

DEPBig

DEP offense vs UNA defense

Offense 92nd of 366 against a defense 251st, on the model’s ratings

UNABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNA 37.6, DEP 35.3. Allowed: UNA 30.3, DEP 37.8

DEPBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNA 17.5%, DEP 17.7%. Forced: UNA 14.6%, DEP 18.7%

DEPSmall

Home court

DEP at home. This season: DEP 0-0 at home, UNA 0-0 away

DEPSmall

Three-pointers

UNA hits 30.7% and allows 35.7%; DEP hits 32.5% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 33.6% and 39.0% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNA 16%, DEP 38%. Transfers in: UNA 5, DEP 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: UNA plays 66.2 a game (304th fastest), DEP 67.7 (240th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNA 31.2%, DEP 30.1%. Defensive: UNA 67.8%, DEP 69.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DEP -24.6	—
Total	—	140.3	—
Projected score	—	UNA 57.8 · DEP 82.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DEP -14.5	—
1H total	65.7	—
1H projected score	UNA 25.6 · DEP 40.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNA WLWLL	10-18	36%	7-9	—
DEP WWLLL	20-12	63%	10-8	—

Venue/role: UNA away; DEP home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNA OUUUU	12-16	43%	7-21
DEP OUUOU	11-21	34%	16-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNA	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
DEP	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

North Alabama

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ CLT	No recent meeting
Dec 9	vs UTM	W87–69WO
Dec 15	@ MORE	L77–86LO

DePaul

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs SMU	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs ME	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ SLU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Alabama

28 games played

Straight up

7-21

25% wins

Against the spread

10-18

36% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-16

43% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2125%

L W L L L W W L L L L L W L L L L W L L L L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1836%

W L L W L W W L L L L L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-1643%

U O O U U O U U O U U O O O O U U U U O U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@MSST	L 62-86	+24.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 11	vsNWST	W 87-83	-6.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 170
Nov 15	vsETSU	L 74-78	-1.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	@CLEM	L 61-81	+25.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 22	@UTC	L 57-71	+9.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 128
Dec 1	@JXST	W 73-66	+6.5	W +13.5	134.5	O 139
Dec 3	@SF	W 65-63	+16.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 15	@AAMU	L 60-68	-4.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 128
Dec 19	@LMU	L 57-91	+10.5	L −23.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 1	vsSTET	L 67-70	-9.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 137
Jan 3	vsFGCU	L 55-72	+2.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 8	@EKU	L 80-88	+5.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 168
Jan 10	@BELL	W 82-73	+4.5	W +13.5	146.5	O 155
Jan 15	vsUNF	L 91-105	-9.5	L −23.5	157.5	O 196
Jan 17	vsJAX	L 68-90	-1.5	L −23.5	133.5	O 158
Jan 21	@QUC	L 62-87	+12.5	L −12.5	162.5	U 149
Jan 29	@FGCU	L 64-72	+9.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 31	@STET	W 68-66	+1.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 4	@CARK	L 60-81	+10.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 141
Feb 7	@APSU	L 62-91	+12.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 153
Feb 9	vsCARK	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 137
Feb 11	vsWGA	L 73-82	-1.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 15	vsEKU	W 84-78	+4.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 18	vsQUC	L 78-85	+8.5	W +1.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 21	@LIP	L 51-73	+12.5	L −9.5	149.5	U 124
Feb 25	vsBELL	W 73-68	+2.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 28	@WGA	L 63-75	+4.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 138
Mar 4	vsFGCU	L 58-69	+8.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSST

L 62-86

+0.5

NWST

W 87-83

−2.5

ETSU

L 74-78

−5.5

CLEM

L 61-81

+5.5

UTC

L 57-71

−4.5

JXST

W 73-66

+13.5

W 65-63

+18.5

AAMU

L 60-68

−12.5

LMU

L 57-91

−23.5

STET

L 67-70

−12.5

FGCU

L 55-72

−14.5

EKU

L 80-88

−2.5

BELL

W 82-73

+13.5

UNF

L 91-105

−23.5

JAX

L 68-90

−23.5

QUC

L 62-87

−12.5

FGCU

L 64-72

+1.5

STET

W 68-66

+3.5

CARK

L 60-81

−10.5

APSU

L 62-91

−16.5

CARK

L 65-72

−0.5

WGA

L 73-82

−10.5

EKU

W 84-78

+10.5

QUC

L 78-85

+1.5

LIP

L 51-73

−9.5

BELL

W 73-68

+7.5

WGA

L 63-75

−7.5

FGCU

L 58-69

−2.5

covered 10didn’t cover 18avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSST

L 62-86

−3.5

NWST

W 87-83

+27.5

ETSU

L 74-78

+6.5

CLEM

L 61-81

−2.5

UTC

L 57-71

−21.5

JXST

W 73-66

+4.5

W 65-63

−17.5

AAMU

L 60-68

−12.5

LMU

L 57-91

+7.5

STET

L 67-70

−5.5

FGCU

L 55-72

−20.5

EKU

L 80-88

+19.5

BELL

W 82-73

+8.5

UNF

L 91-105

+38.5

JAX

L 68-90

+24.5

QUC

L 62-87

−13.5

FGCU

L 64-72

−11.5

STET

W 68-66

−10.5

CARK

L 60-81

−6.5

APSU

L 62-91

+7.5

CARK

L 65-72

−8.5

WGA

L 73-82

+9.5

EKU

W 84-78

+11.5

QUC

L 78-85

+6.5

LIP

L 51-73

−25.5

BELL

W 73-68

−5.5

WGA

L 63-75

−8.5

FGCU

L 58-69

−12.5

over 12under 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

DePaul

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

20-12

63% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-21

34% overs · avg −5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

W W L L W W W L W W W L L L W W L W L W L L L L W W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

20-1263%

W L L W W W W L L W W W L W W W W W W W L W L L W W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-2134%

O U U O U O U O U U U U U U O U U O O U U U U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHST	W 92-62	-24.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsSTO	W 72-64	-22.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 11	vsBUF	L 53-66	-18.5	L −31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 14	vsNU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 18	vsGWEB	W 93-62	-21.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsDETM	W 95-75	-19.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 170
Nov 28	vsGT	W 75-61	-1.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsLSU	L 63-96	+5.5	L −27.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsUAPB	W 76-72	-23.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 148
Dec 9	vsMORG	W 92-49	-21.5	W +21.5	150.5	U 141
Dec 13	@WICH	W 61-58	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 16	@SJU	L 66-79	+19.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 145
Dec 21	vsCONN	L 54-72	+12.5	L −5.5	133.5	U 126
Dec 31	@VILL	L 66-71	+12.5	W +7.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	vsXAV	W 86-77	-2.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 163
Jan 6	vsGTWN	W 56-50	-2.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 106
Jan 10	@CONN	L 60-72	+19.5	W +7.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 16	vsMARQ	W 80-75	-2.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 20	@BTLR	L 80-87	+7.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 167
Jan 24	vsHALL	W 67-60	+2.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 127
Jan 28	@GTWN	L 61-70	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 131
Jan 31	@XAV	L 66-68	+4.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 3	vsSJU	L 56-68	+9.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 124
Feb 7	@PROV	L 72-90	+4.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 11	vsCREI	W 72-71	+1.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 143
Feb 18	@HALL	W 69-57	+7.5	W +19.5	129.5	U 126
Feb 21	vsPROV	L 68-71	-2.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 25	@CREI	W 72-71	+3.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 143
Mar 1	@MARQ	W 62-51	+4.5	W +15.5	139.5	U 113
Mar 4	vsVILL	L 57-76	+1.5	L −17.5	135.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsBTLR	L 71-81	-4.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 152
Mar 11	vsGTWN	L 56-63	+1.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+5.5

STO

W 72-64

−14.5

BUF

L 53-66

−31.5

L 79-81

+3.5

GWEB

W 93-62

+9.5

DETM

W 95-75

+0.5

W 75-61

+12.5

LSU

L 63-96

−27.5

UAPB

W 76-72

−19.5

MORG

W 92-49

+21.5

WICH

W 61-58

+10.5

SJU

L 66-79

+6.5

CONN

L 54-72

−5.5

VILL

L 66-71

+7.5

XAV

W 86-77

+6.5

GTWN

W 56-50

+3.5

CONN

L 60-72

+7.5

MARQ

W 80-75

+2.5

BTLR

L 80-87

+0.5

HALL

W 67-60

+9.5

GTWN

L 61-70

−5.5

XAV

L 66-68

+2.5

SJU

L 56-68

−2.5

PROV

L 72-90

−13.5

CREI

W 72-71

+2.5

HALL

W 69-57

+19.5

PROV

L 68-71

−5.5

CREI

W 72-71

+4.5

MARQ

W 62-51

+15.5

VILL

L 57-76

−17.5

BTLR

L 71-81

−14.5

GTWN

L 56-63

−5.5

covered 20didn’t cover 12avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHST

W 92-62

+10.5

STO

W 72-64

−11.5

BUF

L 53-66

−34.5

L 79-81

+14.5

GWEB

W 93-62

−0.5

DETM

W 95-75

+18.5

W 75-61

−11.5

LSU

L 63-96

+6.5

UAPB

W 76-72

−8.5

MORG

W 92-49

−9.5

WICH

W 61-58

−26.5

SJU

L 66-79

−2.5

CONN

L 54-72

−7.5

VILL

L 66-71

−2.5

XAV

W 86-77

+13.5

GTWN

W 56-50

−38.5

CONN

L 60-72

−5.5

MARQ

W 80-75

+9.5

BTLR

L 80-87

+19.5

HALL

W 67-60

−8.5

GTWN

L 61-70

−8.5

XAV

L 66-68

−16.5

SJU

L 56-68

−21.5

PROV

L 72-90

+8.5

CREI

W 72-71

+1.5

HALL

W 69-57

−3.5

PROV

L 68-71

−13.5

CREI

W 72-71

+0.5

MARQ

W 62-51

−26.5

VILL

L 57-76

−2.5

BTLR

L 71-81

+9.5

GTWN

L 56-63

−17.5

over 11under 21avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

DePaul has the better starters

Position by position: North Alabama 0, DePaul 4, even 1

North AlabamaBetterDePaul

G M. Evbagharu TR9.2 pts · 7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 43

DEPBig

G K. Holmes TR19.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

G B. Patton6 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 17

DEPBig

G A. Popoola TR10.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57

G J. Clark TR6.1 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G L. Blocker11.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 77

F D. Yates TR6.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 59

DEPSmall

G K. Cotton TR14.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87

F J. Whitted TR2.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 9

DEPBig

C W. Jacques TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1 ast Score 52

North AlabamaBetterDePaul

UNA offense308th of 366 · -9.6

DEPBig

DEP defense31st of 366 · +3.5

UNA defense251st of 366 · -6.6

DEPBig

DEP offense92nd of 366 · -0.3

Backcourt-3.3 · 3 players

DEPBig

Backcourt+7.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players

DEPSmall

Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player

Bench-3.8 · 2 players

DEPBig

Bench+0.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUNA betterDEP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

North Alabama

Guards

M. Evbagharu34 min · TRB. Patton18 minJ. Clark15 min · TRQ. Lax15 min · TRC. Graham-Howard14 minC. HarrisNew

Forwards

D. Yates17 min · TRJ. Whitted15 min · TRD. CarterNewA. OsmanNewJ. GulleyNew

Centers

M. ChaffeeNew

DePaul

Guards

K. Holmes32 min · TRA. Popoola29 min · TRL. Blocker29 minK. Cotton28 min · TRN. Meeusen27 min · TRK. McClure19 min

Forwards

M. Gwath19 min · TRT. Pierre-Justin16 minJ. JohnsonNewA. JensenNew

Centers

W. Jacques28 min · TRF. Flores11 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNA67.9 #317

DEP70.3 #279

Points per possession

UNA1.02 #300

DEP1.04 #280

Pace (possessions)

UNA66.2 #304

DEP67.7 #240

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNA48.0 #312

DEP49.8 #243

3-point %

UNA30.7 #327

DEP32.5 #253

3-point attempt rate

UNA33.6 #306

DEP39.0 #191

Free throw rate

UNA37.6 #111

DEP35.3 #169

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNA17.5 #238

DEP17.7 #253

Offensive rebound rate

UNA31.2 #160

DEP30.1 #197

Assists per game

UNA9.7 #363

DEP15.0 #87

Defense

Points allowed

UNA78.0 #267

DEP69.6 #57

Points allowed per possession

UNA1.18 #350

DEP1.03 #55

Opponent effective FG%

UNA55.2 #337

DEP49.3 #77

Opponent 3-point %

UNA35.7 #292

DEP35.4 #274

Turnovers forced

UNA14.6 #319

DEP18.7 #64

Defensive rebound rate

UNA67.8 #268

DEP69.0 #205

Steals per game

UNA6.3 #202

DEP6.9 #134

Blocks per game

UNA3.7 #112

DEP3.4 #152

UNA		DEP
Scoring
67.9 #317	Points per game	70.3 #279
1.02 #300	Points per possession	1.04 #280
66.2 #304	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #240
Shooting
48.0 #312	Effective FG%	49.8 #243
30.7 #327	3-point %	32.5 #253
33.6 #306	3-point attempt rate	39.0 #191
37.6 #111	Free throw rate	35.3 #169
Possessions
17.5 #238	Turnover rate	17.7 #253
31.2 #160	Offensive rebound rate	30.1 #197
9.7 #363	Assists per game	15.0 #87
Defense
78.0 #267	Points allowed	69.6 #57
1.18 #350	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #55
55.2 #337	Opponent effective FG%	49.3 #77
35.7 #292	Opponent 3-point %	35.4 #274
14.6 #319	Turnovers forced	18.7 #64
67.8 #268	Defensive rebound rate	69.0 #205
6.3 #202	Steals per game	6.9 #134
3.7 #112	Blocks per game	3.4 #152

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Alabama

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs FGCU58–69
L@ West Georgia63–75
Wvs Bellarmine73–68
L@ Lipscomb51–73
Lvs Queens University Royals78–85

A week or more of rest.

DePaul

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Georgetown56–63
Lvs Butler71–81
Lvs Villanova57–76
W@ Marquette62–51
W@ Creighton72–71

A week or more of rest.

North Alabama Lions at DePaul Blue Demons

What could decide it: DEP has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

North Alabama

DePaul

DePaul has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

North Alabama

DePaul