1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. SDST @ ACU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Abilene Christian Wildcats

Moody Coliseum (Abilene) · at Abilene Chrstn
#201SDSTS Dakota St
@
#254ACUAbilene Chrstn
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SDSTThis seasonACU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDST 73–72 · win probability SDST 52%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 144.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SDST has more of the edges

SDST 4, ACU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SDSTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SDST 52.0 and allows 51.8; ACU 47.5 and allows 56.5
SDSTBig
Three-pointers
SDST hits 34.0% and allows 34.1%; ACU hits 31.0% and allows 40.9%. Threes are 38.8% and 32.8% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
SDST has played the 271st-hardest schedule, ACU the 183rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
SDSTSmall
ACU offense vs SDST defense
Offense 298th of 366 against a defense 221st, on the model’s ratings
ACUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SDST 16.2%, ACU 20.8%. Forced: SDST 14.5%, ACU 23.4%
ACUSmall
Home court
ACU at home. This season: ACU 0-0 at home, SDST 0-0 away
SDSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SDST 51%, ACU 25%. Transfers in: SDST 3, ACU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SDST 30.3%, ACU 31.0%. Defensive: SDST 74.9%, ACU 70.9%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SDST 29.7, ACU 41.7. Allowed: SDST 34.5, ACU 53.5
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: SDST plays 68.2 a game (220th fastest), ACU 69.2 (167th). Faster games mean more points
Even
SDST offense vs ACU defense
Offense 185th of 366 against a defense 200th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SDST -0.6—
Total—144.5—
Projected score—SDST 72.6 · ACU 72

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSDST -0.5—
1H total67.6—
1H projected scoreSDST 34 · ACU 33.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: S Dakota St 1, Abilene Chrstn 1, even 3
S Dakota StBetterAbilene Chrstn
G J. Sayler14.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 54
SDSTSmall
G N. Bolanga TR11.6 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 38
G K. Garry10.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 3.3 ast Score 49
Even
G Y. Rivera7.4 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 41
G E. Ryans TR7.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 12
No call
G I. Dye1.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
F M. Thompson TR10.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 38
No call
G E. Boisdur TR1.3 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
C A. Squires4.4 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 29
ACUSmall
F C. Hornecker5.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 48
S Dakota StBetterAbilene Chrstn
SDST offense185th of 366 · -5.7
Even
ACU defense200th of 366 · -5.0
SDST defense221st of 366 · -5.7
SDSTSmall
ACU offense298th of 366 · -9.2
Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-3.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
ACUSmall
Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player
Bench-1.4 · 4 players
ACUSmall
Bench-0.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestSDST betterACU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
S Dakota St
Guards
J. Sayler33 minK. Garry30 minE. Ryans27 min · TRT. Buchanan13 minJ. Rogers9 minJ. Cascio Jensen2 min
Forwards
M. Thompson29 min · TRJ. Mekonnen4 min · TRJ. Van KalsbeekNewD. KernNewY. YatabareNewB. EllweinNew
Centers
A. Squires14 min
Abilene Chrstn
Guards
N. Bolanga34 min · TRY. Rivera25 minI. Dye6 minE. Boisdur6 min · TRT. Pons5 min · TRI. Neyhart3 min
Forwards
C. Hornecker16 minV. Yimga MoukouriNewS. RowleyNewW. Marie-AnaisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SDSTACU
Scoring
74.4 #182Points per game67.9 #313
1.09 #150Points per possession0.98 #340
68.2 #220Pace (possessions)69.2 #167
Shooting
52.0 #143Effective FG%47.5 #326
34.0 #1743-point %31.0 #319
38.8 #1933-point attempt rate32.8 #318
29.7 #317Free throw rate41.7 #34
Possessions
16.2 #150Turnover rate20.8 #356
30.3 #186Offensive rebound rate31.0 #164
13.8 #160Assists per game12.5 #249
Defense
74.5 #177Points allowed73.9 #151
1.09 #198Points allowed per possession1.07 #123
51.8 #204Opponent effective FG%56.5 #352
34.1 #191Opponent 3-point %40.9 #365
14.5 #323Turnovers forced23.4 #3
74.9 #9Defensive rebound rate70.9 #113
5.5 #291Steals per game9.6 #4
2.2 #336Blocks per game2.6 #298
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

S Dakota St

11-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs St Thomas67–80
  • L@ South Dakota70–75
  • W@ Kansas City73–59
  • Wvs North Dakota91–83
  • Lvs N Dakota St66–74

A week or more of rest.

Abilene Chrstn

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Utah Tech74–80
  • Wvs Tarleton St84–78
  • Lvs UT Arlington57–64
  • L@ CA Baptist48–87
  • L@ Utah Valley67–74

A week or more of rest.