1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 29
  3. SDST vs FRES
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 29

South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs Fresno State Bulldogs

Convocation Center (LA) · Neutral site
#201SDSTS Dakota St
vs
#174FRESFresno St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SDSTThis seasonFRES
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FRES 76–73 · win probability FRES 60%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FRES has more of the edges

SDST 2, FRES 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
SDST has played the 271st-hardest schedule, FRES the 103rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
SDSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SDST 30.3%, FRES 27.9%. Defensive: SDST 74.9%, FRES 69.4%
FRESBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SDST 29.7, FRES 33.8. Allowed: SDST 34.5, FRES 28.6
SDSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SDST 51%, FRES 0%. Transfers in: SDST 3, FRES 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
FRESSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SDST 16.2%, FRES 18.1%. Forced: SDST 14.5%, FRES 18.2%
FRESSmall
FRES offense vs SDST defense
Offense 176th of 366 against a defense 221st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: SDST plays 68.2 a game (220th fastest), FRES 69.3 (156th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
SDST hits 34.0% and allows 34.1%; FRES hits 32.1% and allows 30.7%. Threes are 38.8% and 40.9% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SDST 52.0 and allows 51.8; FRES 50.6 and allows 51.5
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
SDST offense vs FRES defense
Offense 185th of 366 against a defense 190th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FRES -2.8—
Total—148.4—
Projected score—SDST 72.8 · FRES 75.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFRES -1.5—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreSDST 33.9 · FRES 35.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Fresno St has the better starters

Position by position: S Dakota St 0, Fresno St 2, even 3
S Dakota StBetterFresno St
G J. Sayler14.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 54
No call
G D. Lungu TR13.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 3 ast Not ranked
G K. Garry10.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 3.3 ast Score 49
FRESSmall
G R. Candelino TR11.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 76
G E. Ryans TR7.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 12
FRESSmall
G B. Amuneke TR2.1 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28
F M. Thompson TR10.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 38
Even
F B. Henige TR4.9 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38
C A. Squires4.4 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 29
No call
C B. Fall TR0.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
S Dakota StBetterFresno St
SDST offense185th of 366 · -5.7
Even
FRES defense190th of 366 · -4.4
SDST defense221st of 366 · -5.7
Even
FRES offense176th of 366 · -5.4
Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players
FRESBig
Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
FRESSmall
Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 4 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestSDST betterFRES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
S Dakota St
Guards
J. Sayler33 minK. Garry30 minE. Ryans27 min · TRT. Buchanan13 minJ. Rogers9 minJ. Cascio Jensen2 min
Forwards
M. Thompson29 min · TRJ. Mekonnen4 min · TRJ. Van KalsbeekNewD. KernNewY. YatabareNewB. EllweinNew
Centers
A. Squires14 min
Fresno St
Guards
D. Lungu27 min · TRR. Candelino25 min · TRB. Amuneke8 min · TRN. ZulemieNewK. PerryNewQ. RhymesNew
Forwards
B. Henige20 min · TRR. ParsleyNewY. Kesse-BedaNewA. GrangerNewM. VuckovicNewC. SchroederNew
Centers
B. Fall5 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SDSTFRES
Scoring
74.4 #182Points per game72.3 #233
1.09 #150Points per possession1.04 #266
68.2 #220Pace (possessions)69.3 #156
Shooting
52.0 #143Effective FG%50.6 #206
34.0 #1743-point %32.1 #274
38.8 #1933-point attempt rate40.9 #146
29.7 #317Free throw rate33.8 #218
Possessions
16.2 #150Turnover rate18.1 #277
30.3 #186Offensive rebound rate27.9 #272
13.8 #160Assists per game12.6 #247
Defense
74.5 #177Points allowed73.5 #142
1.09 #198Points allowed per possession1.06 #110
51.8 #204Opponent effective FG%51.5 #184
34.1 #191Opponent 3-point %30.7 #30
14.5 #323Turnovers forced18.2 #88
74.9 #9Defensive rebound rate69.4 #183
5.5 #291Steals per game6.7 #154
2.2 #336Blocks per game2.2 #331
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

S Dakota St

11-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs St Thomas67–80
  • L@ South Dakota70–75
  • W@ Kansas City73–59
  • Wvs North Dakota91–83
  • Lvs N Dakota St66–74

A week or more of rest.

Fresno St

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Colorado St63–67
  • L@ Grand Canyon60–85
  • Wvs San José St82–68
  • Lvs Boise St53–69
  • L@ Colorado St70–74

A week or more of rest.