1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. BEL vs AKR
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Belmont Bruins vs Akron Zips

State Farm Field House · Neutral site
#138BELBelmont
vs
#118AKRAkron
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BELThis seasonAKR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AKR 79–78 · win probability AKR 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

BEL 3, AKR 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
AKRSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BEL 18.0%, AKR 15.5%. Forced: BEL 17.4%, AKR 18.3%
AKRSmall
AKR offense vs BEL defense
Offense 101st of 366 against a defense 192nd, on the model’s ratings
AKRSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BEL 28.8%, AKR 33.4%. Defensive: BEL 70.8%, AKR 70.1%
BELSmall
Three-pointers
BEL hits 41.0% and allows 34.2%; AKR hits 38.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 45.7% and 44.8% of their shots
BELSmall
BEL offense vs AKR defense
Offense 118th of 366 against a defense 168th, on the model’s ratings
BELSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: BEL 61.0 and allows 49.9; AKR 58.1 and allows 51.2
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BEL 32.5, AKR 29.2. Allowed: BEL 30.7, AKR 30.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BEL 41%, AKR 28%. Transfers in: BEL 4, AKR 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
BEL has played the 146th-hardest schedule, AKR the 159th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: BEL plays 70.5 a game (94th fastest), AKR 71.1 (70th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—AKR -1.7—
Total—156.6—
Projected score—BEL 77.5 · AKR 79.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadAKR -0.9—
1H total73.2—
1H projected scoreBEL 36.2 · AKR 37—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Belmont 2, Akron 2, even 1
BelmontBetterAkron
G J. Jenkins8.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 42
AKRSmall
G T. Staveskie TR17.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 74
G J. Smiley8.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 81
Even
G T. Pence TR9.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 86
G I. West2.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7
AKRBig
F E. Mahaffey9.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.4 ast Score 69
F K. Fish TR7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
BELSmall
F M. Burton TR5.5 pts · 5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14
F E. Dillon7.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76
BELSmall
F B. Hammer TR4.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 55
BelmontBetterAkron
BEL offense118th of 366 · -2.7
Even
AKR defense168th of 366 · -3.7
BEL defense192nd of 366 · -4.5
AKRSmall
AKR offense101st of 366 · -1.1
Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players
AKRBig
Backcourt+2.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
BELSmall
Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players
Bench-0.6 · 5 players
BELSmall
Bench-2.6 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestBEL betterAKR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Belmont
Guards
J. Jenkins24 minJ. Smiley17 minI. West17 minM. Zobrist5 min · TRC. Haynes5 minA. Ristic3 min · TR
Forwards
K. Fish19 min · TRE. Dillon16 minG. Lemke2 minC. KnowlesNewC. GersmehlNew
Centers
V. Neugebauer8 min · TR
Akron
Guards
T. Staveskie36 min · TRT. Pence24 min · TRC. HeadNewT. PerkinsNewJ. HendersonNewE. WilsonNew
Forwards
E. Mahaffey29 minM. Burton25 min · TRB. Hammer14 min · TRZ. Halligan12 minC. White9 min · TRM. Musiime-Kamali9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BELAKR
Scoring
83.5 #23Points per game86.4 #8
1.18 #33Points per possession1.22 #6
70.5 #94Pace (possessions)71.1 #70
Shooting
61.0 #1Effective FG%58.1 #9
41.0 #13-point %38.2 #15
45.7 #513-point attempt rate44.8 #74
32.5 #248Free throw rate29.2 #327
Possessions
18.0 #272Turnover rate15.5 #104
28.8 #241Offensive rebound rate33.4 #78
18.5 #6Assists per game17.7 #12
Defense
74.1 #158Points allowed75.0 #188
1.05 #95Points allowed per possession1.06 #98
49.9 #93Opponent effective FG%51.2 #173
34.2 #197Opponent 3-point %35.5 #284
17.4 #126Turnovers forced18.3 #86
70.8 #118Defensive rebound rate70.1 #156
6.0 #241Steals per game7.2 #108
3.5 #151Blocks per game2.9 #240
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Belmont

25-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Drake79–100
  • L@ Illinois St74–81
  • Wvs Evansville98–64
  • Wvs Indiana St87–70
  • W@ Murray St87–70

A week or more of rest.

Akron

27-6 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas Tech71–91
  • Wvs Toledo79–76
  • Wvs Kent State75–68
  • Wvs Buffalo73–70
  • Wvs N Illinois94–55

A week or more of rest.