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  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. SBU vs BEL
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Belmont Bruins

State Farm Field House · Neutral site
#142SBUSt Bonaventure
vs
#138BELBelmont
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SBUThis seasonBEL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BEL 77–74 · win probability BEL 59%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BEL has more of the edges

SBU 1, BEL 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BELBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SBU 52.4 and allows 53.3; BEL 61.0 and allows 49.9
SBUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SBU 34.5%, BEL 28.8%. Defensive: SBU 70.2%, BEL 70.8%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: SBU plays 68.0 a game (228th fastest), BEL 70.5 (94th). Faster games mean more points
BELSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SBU 30.0, BEL 32.5. Allowed: SBU 33.9, BEL 30.7
BELSmall
Three-pointers
SBU hits 37.4% and allows 36.0%; BEL hits 41.0% and allows 34.2%. Threes are 31.3% and 45.7% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SBU 18%, BEL 41%. Transfers in: SBU 3, BEL 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
SBU has played the 109th-hardest schedule, BEL the 146th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SBU 16.8%, BEL 18.0%. Forced: SBU 17.1%, BEL 17.4%
Even
SBU offense vs BEL defense
Offense 169th of 366 against a defense 192nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
BEL offense vs SBU defense
Offense 118th of 366 against a defense 131st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BEL -2.5—
Total—151.0—
Projected score—SBU 74.2 · BEL 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBEL -1.4—
1H total70.6—
1H projected scoreSBU 34.6 · BEL 36—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

St Bonaventure has the better starters

Position by position: St Bonaventure 2, Belmont 1, even 2
St BonaventureBetterBelmont
G A. Fulton TR10.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62
SBUSmall
G J. Jenkins8.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 42
G I. Ermakov2.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Smiley8.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 81
F R. Kalambay TR4.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40
SBUSmall
G I. West2.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7
F J. Grahovac4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33
Even
F K. Fish TR7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
F M. Blackwood TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.2 ast Score 22
BELBig
F E. Dillon7.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76
St BonaventureBetterBelmont
SBU offense169th of 366 · -5.2
Even
BEL defense192nd of 366 · -4.5
SBU defense131st of 366 · -2.4
Even
BEL offense118th of 366 · -2.7
Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players
SBUSmall
Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.4 · 3 players
BELSmall
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Bench-0.6 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSBU betterBEL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
St Bonaventure
Guards
A. Fulton29 min · TRI. Ermakov10 minA. Lonati8 minJ. DeRose1 minR. HeathNewZ. PhilipkoskiNew
Forwards
R. Kalambay21 min · TRJ. Grahovac18 minM. Blackwood12 min · TRJ. IkpotokinNewC. BlankenbergNew
Centers
B. BillNewC. DialloNew
Belmont
Guards
J. Jenkins24 minJ. Smiley17 minI. West17 minM. Zobrist5 min · TRC. Haynes5 minA. Ristic3 min · TR
Forwards
K. Fish19 min · TRE. Dillon16 minG. Lemke2 minC. KnowlesNewC. GersmehlNew
Centers
V. Neugebauer8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SBUBEL
Scoring
76.2 #138Points per game83.5 #23
1.12 #104Points per possession1.18 #33
68.0 #228Pace (possessions)70.5 #94
Shooting
52.4 #129Effective FG%61.0 #1
37.4 #223-point %41.0 #1
31.3 #3353-point attempt rate45.7 #51
30.0 #310Free throw rate32.5 #248
Possessions
16.8 #189Turnover rate18.0 #272
34.5 #60Offensive rebound rate28.8 #241
15.4 #73Assists per game18.5 #6
Defense
75.4 #201Points allowed74.1 #158
1.11 #245Points allowed per possession1.05 #95
53.3 #278Opponent effective FG%49.9 #93
36.0 #299Opponent 3-point %34.2 #197
17.1 #144Turnovers forced17.4 #126
70.2 #150Defensive rebound rate70.8 #118
7.5 #80Steals per game6.0 #241
4.4 #41Blocks per game3.5 #151
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

St Bonaventure

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Dayton63–68
  • Wvs George Mason63–57
  • Wvs La Salle99–80
  • Lvs Davidson63–68
  • L@ G Washington82–91

A week or more of rest.

Belmont

25-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Drake79–100
  • L@ Illinois St74–81
  • Wvs Evansville98–64
  • Wvs Indiana St87–70
  • W@ Murray St87–70

A week or more of rest.