1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. GONZ vs KSU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Kansas State Wildcats

T-Mobile Arena · Neutral site
#17GONZGonzaga AP #15
vs
#83KSUKansas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GONZThis seasonKSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GONZ 86–70 · win probability GONZ 92%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GONZ has more of the edges

GONZ 6, KSU 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GONZBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GONZ 34.8%, KSU 29.2%. Defensive: GONZ 74.3%, KSU 66.0%
GONZBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GONZ 13.7%, KSU 17.4%. Forced: GONZ 19.9%, KSU 17.1%
GONZBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: GONZ 55.6 and allows 46.3; KSU 53.3 and allows 52.5
GONZSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GONZ 31.0, KSU 26.9. Allowed: GONZ 30.9, KSU 35.2
GONZSmall
GONZ offense vs KSU defense
Offense 14th of 366 against a defense 97th, on the model’s ratings
GONZSmall
KSU offense vs GONZ defense
Offense 74th of 366 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: GONZ plays 70.4 a game (98th fastest), KSU 73.8 (11th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
GONZ has played the 84th-hardest schedule, KSU the 43rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GONZ 21%, KSU 7%. Transfers in: GONZ 5, KSU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
GONZ hits 33.3% and allows 30.6%; KSU hits 36.4% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 30.8% and 40.9% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GONZ -15.8—
Total—156.3—
Projected score—GONZ 86.1 · KSU 70.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGONZ -9.5—
1H total73.0—
1H projected scoreGONZ 41.3 · KSU 31.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Gonzaga has the better starters

Position by position: Gonzaga 4, Kansas St 0, even 1
GonzagaBetterKansas St
G J. Bennett TR15.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 85
Even
G B. Rechsteiner TR12 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71
G X. Lee TR11.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.2 ast Score 94
GONZBig
G J. Schutt TR7.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 39
F C. Wiggins TR13.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 81
GONZSmall
G M. Wheeler TR8.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 50
F B. Huff17.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99
GONZBig
F D. Lindsay TR5.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 51
C M. Diop TR13.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 86
GONZBig
F I. Abraham TR4.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31
GonzagaBetterKansas St
GONZ offense14th of 366 · +9.4
GONZSmall
KSU defense97th of 366 · -0.7
GONZ defense21st of 366 · +5.3
Even
KSU offense74th of 366 · +1.4
Backcourt+5.5 · 2 players
GONZBig
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players
GONZBig
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
Bench+2.8 · 2 players
GONZSmall
Bench-0.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGONZ betterKSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Gonzaga
Guards
J. Bennett35 min · TRX. Lee27 min · TRD. Fogle17 minI. Harwell14 min · TRN. De SousaNewA. MetzNew
Forwards
C. Wiggins28 min · TRB. Huff26 minI. AlmansaNewP. JeffersonNewS. FunchesNewL. FosterNew
Centers
M. Diop30 min · TR
Kansas St
Guards
B. Rechsteiner28 min · TRJ. Schutt25 min · TRM. Wheeler22 min · TRA. Kostic14 minJ. AlexanderNew
Forwards
D. Lindsay21 min · TRI. Abraham20 min · TRT. Malovec15 min · TRP. N'Diaye9 min · TRB. Vice6 min · TRM. GilhoolNew
Centers
J. Rock13 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GONZKSU
Scoring
84.3 #17Points per game79.6 #74
1.20 #13Points per possession1.08 #191
70.4 #98Pace (possessions)73.8 #11
Shooting
55.6 #25Effective FG%53.3 #88
33.3 #2123-point %36.4 #43
30.8 #3423-point attempt rate40.9 #148
31.0 #282Free throw rate26.9 #351
Possessions
13.7 #17Turnover rate17.4 #233
34.8 #52Offensive rebound rate29.2 #229
18.4 #7Assists per game16.8 #29
Defense
66.2 #15Points allowed81.8 #339
0.94 #1Points allowed per possession1.11 #244
46.3 #15Opponent effective FG%52.5 #239
30.6 #23Opponent 3-point %33.7 #166
19.9 #25Turnovers forced17.1 #145
74.3 #16Defensive rebound rate66.0 #317
8.4 #23Steals per game7.0 #121
3.7 #116Blocks per game3.5 #137
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Gonzaga

31-4 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas68–74
  • Wvs Kennesaw St73–64
  • Wvs Santa Clara79–68
  • Wvs Oregon St65–56
  • L@ Saint Mary's59–70

A week or more of rest.

Kansas St

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs BYU91–105
  • L@ Kansas85–104
  • Wvs West Virginia65–63
  • Lvs TCU68–77
  • L@ Colorado70–79

A week or more of rest.