Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Miami (OH) RedHawks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 12:00 AM ETMillett Hall · at Miami OH

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: E Kentucky and Miami OH
EKU	This season	M-OH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects M-OH 88–71 · win probability M-OH 92%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 158.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: M-OH has more of the edges

EKU 0, M-OH 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

M-OHBig

M-OH offense vs EKU defense

Offense 100th of 366 against a defense 340th, on the model’s ratings

M-OHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: EKU 30.7, M-OH 39.6. Allowed: EKU 38.5, M-OH 30.2

M-OHBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: EKU 16.9%, M-OH 14.3%. Forced: EKU 14.8%, M-OH 17.4%

M-OHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: EKU 52.1 and allows 56.1; M-OH 58.6 and allows 51.2

M-OHBig

Three-pointers

EKU hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%; M-OH hits 37.1% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 50.8% and 45.6% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

EKU has played the 273rd-hardest schedule, M-OH the 207th. A record against a soft schedule means less

M-OHSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: EKU 29%, M-OH 65%. Transfers in: EKU 3, M-OH 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

M-OHSmall

Home court

M-OH at home. This season: M-OH 0-0 at home, EKU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: EKU plays 69.8 a game (128th fastest), M-OH 72.1 (33rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: EKU 32.5%, M-OH 25.5%. Defensive: EKU 68.3%, M-OH 71.3%

Even

EKU offense vs M-OH defense

Offense 244th of 366 against a defense 207th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	M-OH -16.4	—
Total	—	158.7	—
Projected score	—	EKU 71.2 · M-OH 87.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	M-OH -9.6	—
1H total	74.2	—
1H projected score	EKU 32.3 · M-OH 41.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EKU LWLLL	11-19	37%	6-10	—
M-OH LLLWL	19-12	61%	7-6	—

Venue/role: EKU away; M-OH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
EKU OOOUO	19-11	63%	9-21
M-OH UOOOU	20-11	65%	29-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EKU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
M-OH	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

E Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs TNTC	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs UTM	L74–80LU
Dec 6	@ AUB	No recent meeting

Miami OH

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs CMU	W100–61WO
Dec 5	@ BUF	W73–71LU
Dec 12	vs HPU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

EKU 0–1 M-OHM-OH leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · EKU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 13, 2025-26	M-OH 79 @ EKU 69	EKU +5.5	M-OH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Kentucky

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

11-19

37% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L L L L L L L W L W L L L W W L W L L L L W W L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1937%

L L L L L L W W L W L W L W W W W L L L L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1163%

O U O O U O O U U U U O O O U U O O O O O U O U O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	vsWKU	L 79-87	+1.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 166
Nov 12	@VAN	L 62-92	+28.5	L −1.5	168.5	U 154
Nov 18	@KENT	L 78-93	+10.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 171
Nov 22	vsMER	L 83-95	-4.5	L −16.5	163.5	O 178
Nov 24	@NKU	L 71-82	+4.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsWOF	L 77-83	+1.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 3	@ILST	L 78-89	+12.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 167
Dec 10	@EIU	W 68-59	-6.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 127
Dec 13	vsM-OH	L 69-79	+5.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 148
Dec 17	@JXST	W 62-59	+2.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 21	@WICH	L 57-88	+14.5	L −16.5	148.5	U 145
Jan 1	@QUC	L 89-91	+4.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	@WGA	L 76-88	-1.5	L −13.5	156.5	O 164
Jan 8	vsUNA	W 88-80	-5.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 168
Jan 10	vsCARK	W 79-75	+1.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 154
Jan 15	@APSU	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 146
Jan 17	vsBELL	W 89-69	-5.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 158
Jan 22	@UNF	L 85-87	-8.5	L −10.5	166.5	O 172
Jan 24	@JAX	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 157
Jan 28	vsAPSU	L 82-90	+2.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 172
Jan 31	@CARK	L 81-90	+4.5	L −4.5	151.5	O 171
Feb 5	vsFGCU	W 76-74	-1.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 150
Feb 7	vsSTET	W 100-88	-9.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 188
Feb 11	@LIP	L 61-75	+6.5	L −7.5	160.5	U 136
Feb 15	@UNA	L 78-84	-4.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 18	vsWGA	W 81-80	-7.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 21	@BELL	W 95-92	-1.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 187
Feb 25	vsQUC	L 79-96	+2.5	L −14.5	165.5	O 175
Feb 28	vsLIP	L 77-80	+1.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 157
Mar 4	vsSTET	L 76-92	-5.5	L −21.5	155.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WKU

L 79-87

−6.5

VAN

L 62-92

−1.5

KENT

L 78-93

−4.5

MER

L 83-95

−16.5

NKU

L 71-82

−6.5

WOF

L 77-83

−4.5

ILST

L 78-89

+1.5

EIU

W 68-59

+2.5

M-OH

L 69-79

−4.5

JXST

W 62-59

+5.5

WICH

L 57-88

−16.5

QUC

L 89-91

+2.5

WGA

L 76-88

−13.5

UNA

W 88-80

+2.5

CARK

W 79-75

+5.5

APSU

L 72-74

+5.5

BELL

W 89-69

+14.5

UNF

L 85-87

−10.5

JAX

L 76-81

−3.5

APSU

L 82-90

−5.5

CARK

L 81-90

−4.5

FGCU

W 76-74

+0.5

STET

W 100-88

+2.5

LIP

L 61-75

−7.5

UNA

L 78-84

−10.5

WGA

W 81-80

−6.5

BELL

W 95-92

+1.5

QUC

L 79-96

−14.5

LIP

L 77-80

−1.5

STET

L 76-92

−21.5

covered 11didn’t cover 19avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WKU

L 79-87

+3.5

VAN

L 62-92

−14.5

KENT

L 78-93

+9.5

MER

L 83-95

+14.5

NKU

L 71-82

−3.5

WOF

L 77-83

+6.5

ILST

L 78-89

+12.5

EIU

W 68-59

−22.5

M-OH

L 69-79

−10.5

JXST

W 62-59

−21.5

WICH

L 57-88

−3.5

QUC

L 89-91

+15.5

WGA

L 76-88

+7.5

UNA

W 88-80

+19.5

CARK

W 79-75

−2.5

APSU

L 72-74

−7.5

BELL

W 89-69

+1.5

UNF

L 85-87

+5.5

JAX

L 76-81

+14.5

APSU

L 82-90

+20.5

CARK

L 81-90

+19.5

FGCU

W 76-74

−4.5

STET

W 100-88

+36.5

LIP

L 61-75

−24.5

UNA

L 78-84

+11.5

WGA

W 81-80

+6.5

BELL

W 95-92

+33.5

QUC

L 79-96

+9.5

LIP

L 77-80

−0.5

STET

L 76-92

+12.5

over 19under 11avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Miami OH

31 games played

Straight up

29-2

94% wins

Against the spread

19-12

61% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-11

65% overs · avg +5.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

29-294%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1261%

L W L W W W L W W W W W L W W L W L W L W W W W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1165%

O U O O O O O U O O O U O U O O O O U U O O U O U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsODU	W 87-72	-16.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 15	@AF	W 76-61	-10.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 20	vsMERC	W 76-71	-15.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 147
Nov 23	vsUAPB	W 111-84	-21.5	W +5.5	160.5	O 195
Nov 26	vsUNCG	W 82-71	-10.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 6	vsME	W 93-61	-17.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 154
Dec 10	@UNCA	W 90-87	-6.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 177
Dec 13	@EKU	W 79-69	-5.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 148
Dec 16	@WRST	W 83-76	-1.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 20	@BALL	W 86-77	-7.5	W +1.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 30	@BGSU	W 93-83	+6.5	W +16.5	150.5	O 176
Jan 3	vsAKR	W 76-73	+4.5	W +7.5	177.5	U 149
Jan 6	vsWMU	W 87-76	-14.5	L −3.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 9	@TOL	W 87-73	+1.5	W +15.5	166.5	U 160
Jan 13	vsCMU	W 100-61	-15.5	W +23.5	158.5	O 161
Jan 17	vsBUF	W 105-102	-10.5	L −7.5	162.5	O 207
Jan 20	@KENT	W 107-101	+1.5	W +7.5	167.5	O 208
Jan 27	vsMASS	W 86-84	-9.5	L −7.5	164.5	O 170
Jan 31	vsNIU	W 85-61	-16.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 3	@BUF	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 144
Feb 7	@MRSH	W 90-74	-1.5	W +14.5	162.5	O 164
Feb 13	vsOHIO	W 90-74	-7.5	W +8.5	163.5	O 164
Feb 17	@MASS	W 86-77	-3.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 163
Feb 20	vsBGSU	W 91-77	-8.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 24	@EMU	W 74-64	-8.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 138
Feb 27	@WMU	W 69-67	-12.5	L −10.5	161.5	U 136
Mar 3	vsTOL	W 74-72	-7.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 6	@OHIO	W 110-108	-3.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 218
Mar 12	vsMASS	L 83-87	-6.5	L −10.5	161.5	O 170
Mar 18	vsSMU	W 89-79	+6.5	W +16.5	162.5	O 168
Mar 20	vsTENN	L 56-78	+12.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ODU

W 87-72

−1.5

W 76-61

+4.5

MERC

W 76-71

−10.5

UAPB

W 111-84

+5.5

UNCG

W 82-71

+0.5

W 93-61

+14.5

UNCA

W 90-87

−3.5

EKU

W 79-69

+4.5

WRST

W 83-76

+5.5

BALL

W 86-77

+1.5

BGSU

W 93-83

+16.5

AKR

W 76-73

+7.5

WMU

W 87-76

−3.5

TOL

W 87-73

+15.5

CMU

W 100-61

+23.5

BUF

W 105-102

−7.5

KENT

W 107-101

+7.5

MASS

W 86-84

−7.5

NIU

W 85-61

+7.5

BUF

W 73-71

−2.5

MRSH

W 90-74

+14.5

OHIO

W 90-74

+8.5

MASS

W 86-77

+5.5

BGSU

W 91-77

+5.5

EMU

W 74-64

+1.5

WMU

W 69-67

−10.5

TOL

W 74-72

−5.5

OHIO

W 110-108

−1.5

MASS

L 83-87

−10.5

SMU

W 89-79

+16.5

TENN

L 56-78

−9.5

covered 19didn’t cover 12avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ODU

W 87-72

+5.5

W 76-61

−6.5

MERC

W 76-71

+7.5

UAPB

W 111-84

+34.5

UNCG

W 82-71

+2.5

W 93-61

+14.5

UNCA

W 90-87

+24.5

EKU

W 79-69

−10.5

WRST

W 83-76

+9.5

BALL

W 86-77

+15.5

BGSU

W 93-83

+25.5

AKR

W 76-73

−28.5

WMU

W 87-76

+2.5

TOL

W 87-73

−6.5

CMU

W 100-61

+2.5

BUF

W 105-102

+44.5

KENT

W 107-101

+40.5

MASS

W 86-84

+5.5

NIU

W 85-61

−12.5

BUF

W 73-71

−21.5

MRSH

W 90-74

+1.5

OHIO

W 90-74

+0.5

MASS

W 86-77

−0.5

BGSU

W 91-77

+13.5

EMU

W 74-64

−13.5

WMU

W 69-67

−25.5

TOL

W 74-72

−16.5

OHIO

W 110-108

+58.5

MASS

L 83-87

+8.5

SMU

W 89-79

+5.5

TENN

L 56-78

−14.5

over 20under 11avg +5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Miami OH has the better starters

Position by position: E Kentucky 0, Miami OH 4, even 1

E KentuckyBetterMiami OH

G J. Holt7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 38

M-OHBig

G E. Ipsaro14.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 85

G D. King TR2.3 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G L. Skaljac10.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.6 ast Score 61

F S. Lasu TR5.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 15

M-OHBig

G S. Elam TR10.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 64

F A. Ball7.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 20

M-OHSmall

F R. Rolf TR8.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 51

F Y. Paul4.2 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 12

M-OHBig

F A. Woolfolk10 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76

E KentuckyBetterMiami OH

EKU offense244th of 366 · -7.4

Even

M-OH defense207th of 366 · -5.2

EKU defense340th of 366 · -9.1

M-OHBig

M-OH offense100th of 366 · -0.9

Backcourt-1.1 · 2 players

M-OHBig

Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-5.3 · 3 players

M-OHBig

Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players

Bench-0.4 · 2 players

EKUSmall

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestEKU betterM-OH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

E Kentucky

Guards

J. Holt20 minD. King8 min · TRO. Hamama7 min · TRM. Miles1 minJ. McCarterNewD. VasserNew

Forwards

S. Lasu23 min · TRA. Ball20 minY. Paul17 minD. DujmovicNewJ. LoweNewM. CamaraNew

Miami OH

Guards

E. Ipsaro30 minL. Skaljac29 minS. Elam26 min · TRJ. Kirby17 minB. AndersonNewL. StowersNew

Forwards

R. Rolf27 min · TRA. Woolfolk24 minP. Copeland19 min · TRA. Atlason19 minK. Waltz5 minT. Robbins5 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

EKU77.5 #107

M-OH86.3 #10

Points per possession

EKU1.11 #123

M-OH1.20 #15

Pace (possessions)

EKU69.8 #128

M-OH72.1 #33

Shooting

Effective FG%

EKU52.1 #141

M-OH58.6 #6

3-point %

EKU35.0 #111

M-OH37.1 #25

3-point attempt rate

EKU50.8 #10

M-OH45.6 #55

Free throw rate

EKU30.7 #286

M-OH39.6 #64

Possessions

Turnover rate

EKU16.9 #194

M-OH14.3 #36

Offensive rebound rate

EKU32.5 #106

M-OH25.5 #332

Assists per game

EKU14.1 #139

M-OH15.1 #80

Defense

Points allowed

EKU83.1 #346

M-OH76.5 #229

Points allowed per possession

EKU1.19 #354

M-OH1.06 #102

Opponent effective FG%

EKU56.1 #346

M-OH51.2 #167

Opponent 3-point %

EKU36.2 #312

M-OH33.1 #131

Turnovers forced

EKU14.8 #304

M-OH17.4 #128

Defensive rebound rate

EKU68.3 #241

M-OH71.3 #92

Steals per game

EKU6.1 #228

M-OH7.0 #124

Blocks per game

EKU2.9 #245

M-OH3.1 #202

EKU		M-OH
Scoring
77.5 #107	Points per game	86.3 #10
1.11 #123	Points per possession	1.20 #15
69.8 #128	Pace (possessions)	72.1 #33
Shooting
52.1 #141	Effective FG%	58.6 #6
35.0 #111	3-point %	37.1 #25
50.8 #10	3-point attempt rate	45.6 #55
30.7 #286	Free throw rate	39.6 #64
Possessions
16.9 #194	Turnover rate	14.3 #36
32.5 #106	Offensive rebound rate	25.5 #332
14.1 #139	Assists per game	15.1 #80
Defense
83.1 #346	Points allowed	76.5 #229
1.19 #354	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #102
56.1 #346	Opponent effective FG%	51.2 #167
36.2 #312	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #131
14.8 #304	Turnovers forced	17.4 #128
68.3 #241	Defensive rebound rate	71.3 #92
6.1 #228	Steals per game	7.0 #124
2.9 #245	Blocks per game	3.1 #202

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

E Kentucky

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Stetson76–92
Lvs Lipscomb77–80
Lvs Queens University Royals79–96
W@ Bellarmine95–92
Wvs West Georgia81–80

A week or more of rest.

Miami OH

29-2 in 2025-26 overall · 18-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tennessee56–78
Wvs SMU89–79
Lvs UMass83–87
W@ Ohio110–108
Wvs Toledo74–72

A week or more of rest.

Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Miami (OH) RedHawks

What could decide it: M-OH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

E Kentucky

Miami OH

Miami OH has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

E Kentucky

Miami OH