1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. PAC vs JXST
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Pacific Tigers vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Resorts World Event Center · Neutral site
#163PACPacific
vs
#198JXSTJax State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PACThis seasonJXST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PAC 73–69 · win probability PAC 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 141.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PAC has more of the edges

PAC 3, JXST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
PACBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PAC 35.3%, JXST 29.8%. Defensive: PAC 75.0%, JXST 72.0%
JXSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PAC 20.1%, JXST 17.0%. Forced: PAC 15.1%, JXST 16.2%
JXSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: PAC 30.5, JXST 43.1. Allowed: PAC 36.3, JXST 38.7
PACSmall
JXST offense vs PAC defense
Offense 245th of 366 against a defense 147th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
PAC has played the 122nd-hardest schedule, JXST the 196th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PACSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: PAC 52.2 and allows 50.0; JXST 49.7 and allows 49.6
Even
Three-pointers
PAC hits 35.8% and allows 34.7%; JXST hits 35.7% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 35.4% and 38.1% of their shots
Even
PAC offense vs JXST defense
Offense 195th of 366 against a defense 172nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PAC 8%, JXST 0%. Transfers in: PAC 9, JXST 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: PAC plays 66.1 a game (312th fastest), JXST 66.3 (302nd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PAC -3.7—
Total—141.8—
Projected score—PAC 72.7 · JXST 69.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPAC -2.3—
1H total66.4—
1H projected scorePAC 34.3 · JXST 32—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Jax State has the better starters

Position by position: Pacific 1, Jax State 2, even 2
PacificBetterJax State
G J. Winston TR15.5 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 74
PACBig
G J. Stiemke TR9.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 28
G C. Amundsen TR9.4 pts · 2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 34
JXSTSmall
G C. Lockett TR9.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49
G C. Jones TR3.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 17
JXSTSmall
F N. Cunningham TR5.1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 38
F G. Ripp TR3.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 10
Even
F M. Hill TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 7
F J. Pitt4.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 57
No call
F B. Walker TR4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
PacificBetterJax State
PAC offense195th of 366 · -6.1
Even
JXST defense172nd of 366 · -3.9
PAC defense147th of 366 · -3.2
PACSmall
JXST offense245th of 366 · -7.4
Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.9 · 3 players
Bench-1.2 · 5 players
JXSTSmall
Bench+0.3 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestPAC betterJXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pacific
Guards
J. Winston36 min · TRC. Amundsen30 min · TRC. Jones17 min · TRA. Nyorha10 min · TRD. Harris6 min · TRN. BuduNew
Forwards
G. Ripp17 min · TRJ. Pitt17 minJ. Thompson11 min · TRV. OsazeeNewJ. CarotNew
Centers
J. McFarland3 min · TRI. Matlekovic2 min · TR
Jax State
Guards
J. Stiemke28 min · TRC. Lockett25 min · TRL. Horner9 min · TRG. GondrezickNewJ. VickNewN. HernandezNew
Forwards
N. Cunningham13 min · TRM. Hill10 min · TRB. Walker9 min · TRE. Croley5 min · TRK. Polk1 min · TRA. CurryNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PACJXST
Scoring
71.3 #262Points per game69.9 #287
1.08 #176Points per possession1.05 #241
66.1 #312Pace (possessions)66.3 #302
Shooting
52.2 #140Effective FG%49.7 #253
35.8 #653-point %35.7 #76
35.4 #2663-point attempt rate38.1 #209
30.5 #297Free throw rate43.1 #21
Possessions
20.1 #350Turnover rate17.0 #204
35.3 #42Offensive rebound rate29.8 #208
14.9 #93Assists per game11.6 #310
Defense
69.8 #60Points allowed70.6 #66
1.05 #93Points allowed per possession1.06 #120
50.0 #101Opponent effective FG%49.6 #85
34.7 #233Opponent 3-point %33.3 #141
15.1 #281Turnovers forced16.2 #208
75.0 #8Defensive rebound rate72.0 #67
5.4 #309Steals per game5.8 #252
2.2 #332Blocks per game3.0 #233
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacific

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Santa Clara68–76
  • Wvs Seattle U61–58
  • Lvs San Francisco61–72
  • L@ Gonzaga62–71
  • L@ Washington St70–87

A week or more of rest.

Jax State

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs New Mexico St63–68
  • W@ UTEP64–61
  • L@ New Mexico St75–77
  • Lvs Liberty78–81
  • Wvs Delaware80–70

A week or more of rest.