Longwood Lancers at George Mason Patriots: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 12:00 AM ETEagleBank Arena · at George Mason

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Longwood and George Mason
LONG	This season	GMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GMU 82–66 · win probability GMU 91%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

LONG 1, GMU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

LONG has played the 330th-hardest schedule, GMU the 118th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GMUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LONG 49.7 and allows 53.8; GMU 52.7 and allows 49.5

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: LONG plays 71.5 a game (54th fastest), GMU 64.7 (351st). Faster games mean more points

GMUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: LONG 41.4, GMU 41.1. Allowed: LONG 42.1, GMU 28.9

GMUBig

GMU offense vs LONG defense

Offense 106th of 366 against a defense 242nd, on the model’s ratings

GMUBig

LONG offense vs GMU defense

Offense 182nd of 366 against a defense 64th, on the model’s ratings

GMUSmall

Three-pointers

LONG hits 31.4% and allows 33.8%; GMU hits 33.3% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 34.8% and 35.2% of their shots

LONGSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LONG 34.6%, GMU 31.3%. Defensive: LONG 72.3%, GMU 71.7%

GMUSmall

Home court

GMU at home. This season: GMU 0-0 at home, LONG 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LONG 19.2%, GMU 15.8%. Forced: LONG 19.7%, GMU 15.5%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LONG 28%, GMU 24%. Transfers in: LONG 6, GMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GMU -15.2	—
Total	—	148.0	—
Projected score	—	LONG 66.4 · GMU 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GMU -8.9	—
1H total	69.2	—
1H projected score	LONG 30.1 · GMU 39.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LONG WLWWL	13-16	45%	6-8	—
GMU WWWLL	16-16	50%	11-8	—

Venue/role: LONG away; GMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LONG OUOOO	16-13	55%	13-16
GMU UUUUO	15-17	47%	22-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LONG	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
GMU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Longwood

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs UMES	L82–83LO
Dec 2	vs CAM	W77–55WU
Dec 6	@ JMU	W82–72WO

George Mason

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs MRST	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ HPU	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs MORG	W90–53WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LONG 0–1 GMUGMU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LONG 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2022-23	LONG 69 @ GMU 83	GMU -6.5	GMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Longwood

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-13

55% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

L W W L L L W L W L L W W L L W L W W L L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L W L L L L L L L L W L W W L W W W W L L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1355%

U O O O O U U O O O U U U U U O O U O U U O U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@PITT	L 60-78	+14.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 12	vsJMU	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	vsBING	W 90-82	-15.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 18	vsUMES	L 82-83	-17.5	L −18.5	138.5	O 165
Nov 23	@COLU	L 70-95	+3.5	L −21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsSIE	L 63-70	+5.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsME	W 65-61	-5.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	@AMER	L 66-92	+5.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 6	@MORG	W 84-80	-5.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 164
Dec 13	vsDSU	L 76-81	-13.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 157
Dec 17	@WAKE	L 68-71	+24.5	W +21.5	163.5	U 139
Dec 20	@NCCU	W 74-72	-3.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsWIN	W 82-70	+7.5	W +19.5	161.5	U 152
Jan 3	@HPU	L 67-80	+16.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 147
Jan 7	@UNCA	L 61-72	+2.5	L −8.5	148.5	U 133
Jan 10	vsPRES	W 77-70	-3.5	W +3.5	139.5	O 147
Jan 17	@RAD	L 83-85	+4.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 21	vsGWEB	W 91-56	-16.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 147
Jan 23	vsCHSO	W 81-79	-1.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 160
Jan 29	@UPST	L 60-65	-1.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 125
Jan 31	vsHPU	L 59-71	+9.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 130
Feb 4	@GWEB	W 86-66	-12.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 7	@WIN	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 12	vsUNCA	L 74-79	-2.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsUPST	W 82-75	-6.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@PRES	L 65-72	+2.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 21	@CHSO	W 107-96	+2.5	W +13.5	154.5	O 203
Feb 28	vsRAD	W 90-74	-1.5	W +14.5	154.5	O 164
Mar 6	vsUNCA	L 82-85	-1.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−3.5

JMU

W 82-72

+11.5

BING

W 90-82

−7.5

UMES

L 82-83

−18.5

COLU

L 70-95

−21.5

SIE

L 63-70

−1.5

W 65-61

−1.5

AMER

L 66-92

−20.5

MORG

W 84-80

−1.5

DSU

L 76-81

−18.5

WAKE

L 68-71

+21.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−1.5

WIN

W 82-70

+19.5

HPU

L 67-80

+3.5

UNCA

L 61-72

−8.5

PRES

W 77-70

+3.5

RAD

L 83-85

+2.5

GWEB

W 91-56

+18.5

CHSO

W 81-79

+0.5

UPST

L 60-65

−6.5

HPU

L 59-71

−2.5

GWEB

W 86-66

+7.5

WIN

L 74-79

+5.5

UNCA

L 74-79

−7.5

UPST

W 82-75

+0.5

PRES

L 65-72

−4.5

CHSO

W 107-96

+13.5

RAD

W 90-74

+14.5

UNCA

L 82-85

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−7.5

JMU

W 82-72

+4.5

BING

W 90-82

+24.5

UMES

L 82-83

+26.5

COLU

L 70-95

+11.5

SIE

L 63-70

−12.5

W 65-61

−12.5

AMER

L 66-92

+9.5

MORG

W 84-80

+9.5

DSU

L 76-81

+17.5

WAKE

L 68-71

−24.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−0.5

WIN

W 82-70

−9.5

HPU

L 67-80

−13.5

UNCA

L 61-72

−15.5

PRES

W 77-70

+7.5

RAD

L 83-85

+10.5

GWEB

W 91-56

−8.5

CHSO

W 81-79

+3.5

UPST

L 60-65

−22.5

HPU

L 59-71

−26.5

GWEB

W 86-66

+4.5

WIN

L 74-79

−0.5

UNCA

L 74-79

+11.5

UPST

W 82-75

+9.5

PRES

L 65-72

−2.5

CHSO

W 107-96

+48.5

RAD

W 90-74

+9.5

UNCA

L 82-85

+26.5

over 16under 13avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

George Mason

32 games played

Straight up

22-10

69% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1069%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L W W L W L L L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L L W W W W W L L L L L W W W L W L W W L W L L L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O U U O U O O U U O O O U U O O U O U O U U O U O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWOF	W 70-46	-14.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 116
Nov 7	vsWIN	W 96-90	-9.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 15	vsUNH	W 61-44	-24.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 105
Nov 18	vsJAX	W 79-57	-16.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 136
Nov 24	vsOHIO	W 92-69	-7.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 161
Nov 25	vsFAU	W 74-65	-4.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsJMU	W 82-66	-12.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 2	vsCOR	W 99-81	-10.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 180
Dec 6	@VT	L 62-73	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 135
Dec 13	vsODU	W 73-61	-16.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 134
Dec 21	vsL-MD	W 86-79	-23.5	L −16.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 28	vsPENN	W 83-79	-16.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 162
Dec 31	@LAS	W 80-75	-8.5	L −3.5	134.5	O 155
Jan 3	vsURI	W 61-50	-6.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 111
Jan 7	@FOR	W 67-58	-5.5	W +3.5	134.5	U 125
Jan 10	vsVCU	W 86-80	+1.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 166
Jan 13	@LUC	W 82-74	-11.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 19	vsGW	W 69-64	-1.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 133
Jan 24	@URI	L 65-74	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 28	vsDAV	W 60-52	-6.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 112
Jan 31	@SBU	W 77-73	-1.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 150
Feb 4	vsDUQ	L 65-71	-8.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsJOES	W 60-52	-6.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 112
Feb 10	@RICH	L 70-82	-3.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 13	@GW	L 53-72	+3.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 18	vsDAY	L 67-82	-2.5	L −17.5	137.5	O 149
Feb 25	@JOES	L 63-81	-1.5	L −19.5	136.5	O 144
Feb 28	vsSBU	W 71-58	-3.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 129
Mar 3	@VCU	L 65-70	+9.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 135
Mar 7	vsSLU	W 86-57	+7.5	W +36.5	146.5	U 143
Mar 12	vsSBU	L 57-63	-2.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 120
Mar 17	vsLIB	L 71-77	-2.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

+9.5

WIN

W 96-90

−3.5

UNH

W 61-44

−7.5

JAX

W 79-57

+5.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+15.5

FAU

W 74-65

+4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+3.5

COR

W 99-81

+7.5

L 62-73

−6.5

ODU

W 73-61

−4.5

L-MD

W 86-79

−16.5

PENN

W 83-79

−12.5

LAS

W 80-75

−3.5

URI

W 61-50

+4.5

FOR

W 67-58

+3.5

VCU

W 86-80

+7.5

LUC

W 82-74

−3.5

W 69-64

+3.5

URI

L 65-74

−10.5

DAV

W 60-52

+1.5

SBU

W 77-73

+2.5

DUQ

L 65-71

−14.5

JOES

W 60-52

+1.5

RICH

L 70-82

−15.5

L 53-72

−15.5

DAY

L 67-82

−17.5

JOES

L 63-81

−19.5

SBU

W 71-58

+9.5

VCU

L 65-70

+4.5

SLU

W 86-57

+36.5

SBU

L 57-63

−8.5

LIB

L 71-77

−8.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

−24.5

WIN

W 96-90

+39.5

UNH

W 61-44

−39.5

JAX

W 79-57

−0.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+18.5

FAU

W 74-65

−4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+6.5

COR

W 99-81

+24.5

L 62-73

−9.5

ODU

W 73-61

−10.5

L-MD

W 86-79

+18.5

PENN

W 83-79

+15.5

LAS

W 80-75

+20.5

URI

W 61-50

−28.5

FOR

W 67-58

−9.5

VCU

W 86-80

+21.5

LUC

W 82-74

+15.5

W 69-64

−20.5

URI

L 65-74

+3.5

DAV

W 60-52

−22.5

SBU

W 77-73

+7.5

DUQ

L 65-71

−7.5

JOES

W 60-52

−27.5

RICH

L 70-82

+12.5

L 53-72

−24.5

DAY

L 67-82

+11.5

JOES

L 63-81

+7.5

SBU

W 71-58

−17.5

VCU

L 65-70

−12.5

SLU

W 86-57

−3.5

SBU

L 57-63

−23.5

LIB

L 71-77

+6.5

over 15under 17avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

George Mason has the better starters

Position by position: Longwood 0, George Mason 3, even 2

LongwoodBetterGeorge Mason

G M. Williams TR9.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.1 ast Score 65

GMUSmall

G B. Okojie TR20.1 pts · 3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 91

G A. Billups7.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 47

GMUSmall

G M. Valentine TR13.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1 ast Score 71

G J. Benard7.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 44

Even

G L. Marville TR9.5 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 39

G T. Robinson TR9.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.5 ast Score 64

Even

F E. Jones TR12.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78

G E. Kelly2.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28

GMUBig

F E. Adair TR14.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 74

LongwoodBetterGeorge Mason

LONG offense182nd of 366 · -5.7

GMUSmall

GMU defense64th of 366 · +1.1

LONG defense242nd of 366 · -6.4

GMUBig

GMU offense106th of 366 · -1.5

Backcourt-1.7 · 5 players

GMUBig

Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players

Bench-1.7 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLONG betterGMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Longwood

Guards

M. Williams24 min · TRA. Billups23 minJ. Benard20 minT. Robinson19 min · TRE. Kelly11 minB. Wesson2 min · TR

Forwards

D. Kauzonas10 min · TRL. Milosevic8 min · TRK. Musungay4 min · TRI. Kalala3 min

George Mason

Guards

B. Okojie35 min · TRM. Valentine32 min · TRL. Marville26 min · TRE. Oliogu-Elabor16 min · TRM. Presley16 minB. O'Connor15 min

Forwards

E. Jones29 min · TRE. Adair26 min · TRM. Marcus24 min · TRE. Kanga13 minR. MendyNewS. PendergrassNew

Centers

J. Nnaji8 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LONG75.9 #143

GMU72.9 #227

Points per possession

LONG1.07 #215

GMU1.13 #93

Pace (possessions)

LONG71.5 #54

GMU64.7 #351

Shooting

Effective FG%

LONG49.7 #254

GMU52.7 #113

3-point %

LONG31.4 #309

GMU33.3 #214

3-point attempt rate

LONG34.8 #279

GMU35.2 #270

Free throw rate

LONG41.4 #40

GMU41.1 #44

Possessions

Turnover rate

LONG19.2 #327

GMU15.8 #121

Offensive rebound rate

LONG34.6 #57

GMU31.3 #149

Assists per game

LONG12.2 #270

GMU12.6 #243

Defense

Points allowed

LONG76.2 #223

GMU68.0 #31

Points allowed per possession

LONG1.06 #113

GMU1.05 #89

Opponent effective FG%

LONG53.8 #293

GMU49.5 #83

Opponent 3-point %

LONG33.8 #171

GMU32.6 #91

Turnovers forced

LONG19.7 #31

GMU15.5 #254

Defensive rebound rate

LONG72.3 #58

GMU71.7 #79

Steals per game

LONG8.3 #28

GMU5.0 #334

Blocks per game

LONG2.0 #347

GMU3.0 #228

LONG		GMU
Scoring
75.9 #143	Points per game	72.9 #227
1.07 #215	Points per possession	1.13 #93
71.5 #54	Pace (possessions)	64.7 #351
Shooting
49.7 #254	Effective FG%	52.7 #113
31.4 #309	3-point %	33.3 #214
34.8 #279	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #270
41.4 #40	Free throw rate	41.1 #44
Possessions
19.2 #327	Turnover rate	15.8 #121
34.6 #57	Offensive rebound rate	31.3 #149
12.2 #270	Assists per game	12.6 #243
Defense
76.2 #223	Points allowed	68.0 #31
1.06 #113	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #89
53.8 #293	Opponent effective FG%	49.5 #83
33.8 #171	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #91
19.7 #31	Turnovers forced	15.5 #254
72.3 #58	Defensive rebound rate	71.7 #79
8.3 #28	Steals per game	5.0 #334
2.0 #347	Blocks per game	3.0 #228

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Longwood

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNC Asheville82–85
Wvs Radford90–74
W@ Charleston So107–96
L@ Presbyterian65–72
Wvs SC Upstate82–75

A week or more of rest.

George Mason

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Liberty71–77
Lvs St Bonaventure57–63
Wvs Saint Louis86–57
L@ VCU65–70
Wvs St Bonaventure71–58

A week or more of rest.

Longwood Lancers at George Mason Patriots

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Longwood

George Mason

George Mason has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Longwood

George Mason