Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami (OH) RedHawks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 12:00 AM ETMillett Hall · at Miami OH · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: C Michigan and Miami OH
CMU	This season	M-OH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects M-OH 85–71 · win probability M-OH 89%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: M-OH has more of the edges

CMU 0, M-OH 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

M-OHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CMU 31.4, M-OH 39.6. Allowed: CMU 39.0, M-OH 30.2

M-OHBig

M-OH offense vs CMU defense

Offense 100th of 366 against a defense 287th, on the model’s ratings

M-OHBig

Three-pointers

CMU hits 33.9% and allows 35.5%; M-OH hits 37.1% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 34.0% and 45.6% of their shots

M-OHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CMU 51.8 and allows 54.0; M-OH 58.6 and allows 51.2

M-OHBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CMU 18.1%, M-OH 14.3%. Forced: CMU 16.9%, M-OH 17.4%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: CMU plays 68.3 a game (212th fastest), M-OH 72.1 (33rd). Faster games mean more points

M-OHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CMU 29.2%, M-OH 25.5%. Defensive: CMU 65.7%, M-OH 71.3%

M-OHSmall

Home court

M-OH at home. This season: M-OH 0-0 at home, CMU 0-0 away

M-OHSmall

CMU offense vs M-OH defense

Offense 258th of 366 against a defense 207th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CMU has played the 158th-hardest schedule, M-OH the 207th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CMU 43%, M-OH 65%. Transfers in: CMU 1, M-OH 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	M-OH -13.9	—
Total	—	155.9	—
Projected score	—	CMU 71 · M-OH 84.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	M-OH -8.1	—
1H total	72.9	—
1H projected score	CMU 32.4 · M-OH 40.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU WWWLL	16-13	55%	6-10	—
M-OH LLLWL	19-12	61%	7-6	—

Venue/role: CMU away; M-OH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU OOUUO	13-16	45%	8-21
M-OH UOOOU	20-11	65%	29-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
M-OH	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

C Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs OHIO	L64–80LU
Dec 9	vs KENT	L81–83WO
Dec 12	@ EMU	L54–66LU

Miami OH

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ BUF	W73–71LU
Dec 12	vs HPU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

CMU 4–4 M-OHSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · M-OH has won the last 3 meetings · CMU 4-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 13, 2025-26	CMU 61 @ M-OH 100	M-OH -15.5	M-OH W
Feb 4, 2024-25	M-OH 76 @ CMU 70	CMU -1.5	M-OH W
Feb 24, 2023-24	CMU 60 @ M-OH 88	M-OH -3.5	M-OH W
Jan 23, 2023-24	M-OH 55 @ CMU 71	CMU -1.5	CMU W
Feb 11, 2022-23	CMU 66 @ M-OH 60	M-OH -7.5	CMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

C Michigan

29 games played

Straight up

8-21

28% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2128%

W L L W L L L L L L L L L L W L L L W W L L W L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1355%

W L W W L W L L L W L L W W W L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1645%

O U U U O O O O U U U U U U O O U U O U O O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAPP	W 82-66	-1.5	W +14.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 8	@BRAD	L 54-85	+9.5	L −21.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 13	vsUSA	L 64-66	+5.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsCOPP	W 82-59	-10.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 141
Nov 20	vsNKU	L 66-90	-4.5	L −28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 22	@MARQ	L 71-85	+25.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 2	@LUC	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 155
Dec 7	@SLU	L 65-107	+24.5	L −17.5	160.5	O 172
Dec 13	@STBK	L 55-78	+7.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 20	@NIU	L 73-74	+2.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 22	@WIS	L 61-88	+26.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 149
Dec 30	vsOHIO	L 64-80	+6.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 3	vsTOL	L 75-78	+7.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 6	@AKR	L 69-82	+23.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 151
Jan 10	vsKENT	W 87-85	+10.5	W +12.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 13	@M-OH	L 61-100	+15.5	L −23.5	158.5	O 161
Jan 20	vsBALL	L 67-68	+1.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 24	@WMU	L 65-77	+5.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 142
Jan 27	vsEMU	W 100-65	+2.5	W +37.5	139.5	O 165
Jan 31	vsBGSU	W 62-59	+8.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 121
Feb 3	@MASS	L 89-95	+11.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 184
Feb 7	@UL	L 80-85	+2.5	L −2.5	134.5	O 165
Feb 14	vsNIU	W 88-46	-4.5	W +37.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 17	@EMU	L 54-66	+4.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 120
Feb 21	vsWMU	W 83-70	-3.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 153
Feb 24	@KENT	L 81-83	+11.5	W +9.5	156.5	O 164
Feb 28	@BUF	W 75-70	+5.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsAKR	L 64-77	+11.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 141
Mar 6	@BALL	L 69-85	+2.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

APP

W 82-66

+14.5

BRAD

L 54-85

−21.5

USA

L 64-66

+3.5

COPP

W 82-59

+12.5

NKU

L 66-90

−28.5

MARQ

L 71-85

+11.5

LUC

L 72-83

−4.5

SLU

L 65-107

−17.5

STBK

L 55-78

−15.5

NIU

L 73-74

+1.5

WIS

L 61-88

−0.5

OHIO

L 64-80

−9.5

TOL

L 75-78

+4.5

AKR

L 69-82

+10.5

KENT

W 87-85

+12.5

M-OH

L 61-100

−23.5

BALL

L 67-68

+0.5

WMU

L 65-77

−6.5

EMU

W 100-65

+37.5

BGSU

W 62-59

+11.5

MASS

L 89-95

+5.5

L 80-85

−2.5

NIU

W 88-46

+37.5

EMU

L 54-66

−7.5

WMU

W 83-70

+9.5

KENT

L 81-83

+9.5

BUF

W 75-70

+10.5

AKR

L 64-77

−1.5

BALL

L 69-85

−13.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

APP

W 82-66

+5.5

BRAD

L 54-85

−8.5

USA

L 64-66

−12.5

COPP

W 82-59

−1.5

NKU

L 66-90

+9.5

MARQ

L 71-85

+3.5

LUC

L 72-83

+14.5

SLU

L 65-107

+11.5

STBK

L 55-78

−12.5

NIU

L 73-74

−2.5

WIS

L 61-88

−3.5

OHIO

L 64-80

−7.5

TOL

L 75-78

−5.5

AKR

L 69-82

−13.5

KENT

W 87-85

+15.5

M-OH

L 61-100

+2.5

BALL

L 67-68

−7.5

WMU

L 65-77

−6.5

EMU

W 100-65

+25.5

BGSU

W 62-59

−28.5

MASS

L 89-95

+31.5

L 80-85

+30.5

NIU

W 88-46

−12.5

EMU

L 54-66

−20.5

WMU

W 83-70

+2.5

KENT

L 81-83

+7.5

BUF

W 75-70

−6.5

AKR

L 64-77

−17.5

BALL

L 69-85

+19.5

over 13under 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Miami OH

31 games played

Straight up

29-2

94% wins

Against the spread

19-12

61% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-11

65% overs · avg +5.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

29-294%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1261%

L W L W W W L W W W W W L W W L W L W L W W W W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1165%

O U O O O O O U O O O U O U O O O O U U O O U O U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsODU	W 87-72	-16.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 15	@AF	W 76-61	-10.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 20	vsMERC	W 76-71	-15.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 147
Nov 23	vsUAPB	W 111-84	-21.5	W +5.5	160.5	O 195
Nov 26	vsUNCG	W 82-71	-10.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 6	vsME	W 93-61	-17.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 154
Dec 10	@UNCA	W 90-87	-6.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 177
Dec 13	@EKU	W 79-69	-5.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 148
Dec 16	@WRST	W 83-76	-1.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 20	@BALL	W 86-77	-7.5	W +1.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 30	@BGSU	W 93-83	+6.5	W +16.5	150.5	O 176
Jan 3	vsAKR	W 76-73	+4.5	W +7.5	177.5	U 149
Jan 6	vsWMU	W 87-76	-14.5	L −3.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 9	@TOL	W 87-73	+1.5	W +15.5	166.5	U 160
Jan 13	vsCMU	W 100-61	-15.5	W +23.5	158.5	O 161
Jan 17	vsBUF	W 105-102	-10.5	L −7.5	162.5	O 207
Jan 20	@KENT	W 107-101	+1.5	W +7.5	167.5	O 208
Jan 27	vsMASS	W 86-84	-9.5	L −7.5	164.5	O 170
Jan 31	vsNIU	W 85-61	-16.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 3	@BUF	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 144
Feb 7	@MRSH	W 90-74	-1.5	W +14.5	162.5	O 164
Feb 13	vsOHIO	W 90-74	-7.5	W +8.5	163.5	O 164
Feb 17	@MASS	W 86-77	-3.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 163
Feb 20	vsBGSU	W 91-77	-8.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 24	@EMU	W 74-64	-8.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 138
Feb 27	@WMU	W 69-67	-12.5	L −10.5	161.5	U 136
Mar 3	vsTOL	W 74-72	-7.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 6	@OHIO	W 110-108	-3.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 218
Mar 12	vsMASS	L 83-87	-6.5	L −10.5	161.5	O 170
Mar 18	vsSMU	W 89-79	+6.5	W +16.5	162.5	O 168
Mar 20	vsTENN	L 56-78	+12.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ODU

W 87-72

−1.5

W 76-61

+4.5

MERC

W 76-71

−10.5

UAPB

W 111-84

+5.5

UNCG

W 82-71

+0.5

W 93-61

+14.5

UNCA

W 90-87

−3.5

EKU

W 79-69

+4.5

WRST

W 83-76

+5.5

BALL

W 86-77

+1.5

BGSU

W 93-83

+16.5

AKR

W 76-73

+7.5

WMU

W 87-76

−3.5

TOL

W 87-73

+15.5

CMU

W 100-61

+23.5

BUF

W 105-102

−7.5

KENT

W 107-101

+7.5

MASS

W 86-84

−7.5

NIU

W 85-61

+7.5

BUF

W 73-71

−2.5

MRSH

W 90-74

+14.5

OHIO

W 90-74

+8.5

MASS

W 86-77

+5.5

BGSU

W 91-77

+5.5

EMU

W 74-64

+1.5

WMU

W 69-67

−10.5

TOL

W 74-72

−5.5

OHIO

W 110-108

−1.5

MASS

L 83-87

−10.5

SMU

W 89-79

+16.5

TENN

L 56-78

−9.5

covered 19didn’t cover 12avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ODU

W 87-72

+5.5

W 76-61

−6.5

MERC

W 76-71

+7.5

UAPB

W 111-84

+34.5

UNCG

W 82-71

+2.5

W 93-61

+14.5

UNCA

W 90-87

+24.5

EKU

W 79-69

−10.5

WRST

W 83-76

+9.5

BALL

W 86-77

+15.5

BGSU

W 93-83

+25.5

AKR

W 76-73

−28.5

WMU

W 87-76

+2.5

TOL

W 87-73

−6.5

CMU

W 100-61

+2.5

BUF

W 105-102

+44.5

KENT

W 107-101

+40.5

MASS

W 86-84

+5.5

NIU

W 85-61

−12.5

BUF

W 73-71

−21.5

MRSH

W 90-74

+1.5

OHIO

W 90-74

+0.5

MASS

W 86-77

−0.5

BGSU

W 91-77

+13.5

EMU

W 74-64

−13.5

WMU

W 69-67

−25.5

TOL

W 74-72

−16.5

OHIO

W 110-108

+58.5

MASS

L 83-87

+8.5

SMU

W 89-79

+5.5

TENN

L 56-78

−14.5

over 20under 11avg +5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Miami OH has the better starters

Position by position: C Michigan 0, Miami OH 5, even 0

C MichiganBetterMiami OH

G J. Petty TR10.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

M-OHBig

G E. Ipsaro14.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 85

G P. Phat Brooks11.1 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 46

M-OHSmall

G L. Skaljac10.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.6 ast Score 61

G J. Whitaker5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 11

M-OHBig

G S. Elam TR10.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 64

G J. Kampen4.1 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

M-OHBig

F R. Rolf TR8.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 51

F K. Garner7.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35

M-OHBig

F A. Woolfolk10 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76

C MichiganBetterMiami OH

CMU offense258th of 366 · -8.0

Even

M-OH defense207th of 366 · -5.2

CMU defense287th of 366 · -7.2

M-OHBig

M-OH offense100th of 366 · -0.9

Backcourt-6.1 · 4 players

M-OHBig

Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.1 · 1 player

M-OHSmall

Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCMU betterM-OH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

C Michigan

Guards

J. Petty31 min · TRP. Phat Brooks29 minJ. Whitaker18 minJ. Kampen14 minJ. HackettNewU. AmeneNew

Forwards

K. Garner25 minT. AmbroseNewN. UsenNewJ. BascomNew

Centers

C. LuczynskiNewK. AburashedNewB. MendozaNew

Miami OH

Guards

E. Ipsaro30 minL. Skaljac29 minS. Elam26 min · TRJ. Kirby17 minB. AndersonNewL. StowersNew

Forwards

R. Rolf27 min · TRA. Woolfolk24 minP. Copeland19 min · TRA. Atlason19 minK. Waltz5 minT. Robbins5 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CMU71.7 #256

M-OH86.3 #10

Points per possession

CMU1.05 #248

M-OH1.20 #15

Pace (possessions)

CMU68.3 #212

M-OH72.1 #33

Shooting

Effective FG%

CMU51.8 #158

M-OH58.6 #6

3-point %

CMU33.9 #181

M-OH37.1 #25

3-point attempt rate

CMU34.0 #293

M-OH45.6 #55

Free throw rate

CMU31.4 #269

M-OH39.6 #64

Possessions

Turnover rate

CMU18.1 #279

M-OH14.3 #36

Offensive rebound rate

CMU29.2 #230

M-OH25.5 #332

Assists per game

CMU14.4 #120

M-OH15.1 #80

Defense

Points allowed

CMU77.7 #258

M-OH76.5 #229

Points allowed per possession

CMU1.14 #301

M-OH1.06 #102

Opponent effective FG%

CMU54.0 #299

M-OH51.2 #167

Opponent 3-point %

CMU35.5 #282

M-OH33.1 #131

Turnovers forced

CMU16.9 #157

M-OH17.4 #128

Defensive rebound rate

CMU65.7 #323

M-OH71.3 #92

Steals per game

CMU6.1 #219

M-OH7.0 #124

Blocks per game

CMU4.1 #64

M-OH3.1 #202

CMU		M-OH
Scoring
71.7 #256	Points per game	86.3 #10
1.05 #248	Points per possession	1.20 #15
68.3 #212	Pace (possessions)	72.1 #33
Shooting
51.8 #158	Effective FG%	58.6 #6
33.9 #181	3-point %	37.1 #25
34.0 #293	3-point attempt rate	45.6 #55
31.4 #269	Free throw rate	39.6 #64
Possessions
18.1 #279	Turnover rate	14.3 #36
29.2 #230	Offensive rebound rate	25.5 #332
14.4 #120	Assists per game	15.1 #80
Defense
77.7 #258	Points allowed	76.5 #229
1.14 #301	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #102
54.0 #299	Opponent effective FG%	51.2 #167
35.5 #282	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #131
16.9 #157	Turnovers forced	17.4 #128
65.7 #323	Defensive rebound rate	71.3 #92
6.1 #219	Steals per game	7.0 #124
4.1 #64	Blocks per game	3.1 #202

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Michigan

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Ball State69–85
Lvs Akron64–77
W@ Buffalo75–70
L@ Kent State81–83
Wvs W Michigan83–70

A week or more of rest.

Miami OH

29-2 in 2025-26 overall · 18-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tennessee56–78
Wvs SMU89–79
Lvs UMass83–87
W@ Ohio110–108
Wvs Toledo74–72

A week or more of rest.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami (OH) RedHawks

What could decide it: M-OH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

C Michigan

Miami OH

Miami OH has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

C Michigan

Miami OH