Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Auburn Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 6, 4:00 PM ETNeville Arena · at Auburn

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: E Kentucky and Auburn
EKU	This season	AUB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AUB 95–64 · win probability AUB 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 158.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AUB has more of the edges

EKU 0, AUB 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

AUBBig

AUB offense vs EKU defense

Offense 16th of 366 against a defense 340th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

EKU has played the 273rd-hardest schedule, AUB the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

AUBBig

EKU offense vs AUB defense

Offense 244th of 366 against a defense 41st, on the model’s ratings

AUBBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: EKU 30.7, AUB 43.2. Allowed: EKU 38.5, AUB 34.3

AUBBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: EKU 16.9%, AUB 14.6%. Forced: EKU 14.8%, AUB 16.3%

AUBSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: EKU 32.5%, AUB 37.0%. Defensive: EKU 68.3%, AUB 69.1%

AUBSmall

Home court

AUB at home. This season: AUB 0-0 at home, EKU 0-0 away

AUBSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: EKU 52.1 and allows 56.1; AUB 53.0 and allows 53.7

Even

Three-pointers

EKU hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%; AUB hits 34.4% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 50.8% and 40.2% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: EKU 29%, AUB 38%. Transfers in: EKU 3, AUB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: EKU plays 69.8 a game (128th fastest), AUB 69.7 (136th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	AUB -31.3	—
Total	—	158.7	—
Projected score	—	EKU 63.7 · AUB 95

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AUB -18.5	—
1H total	74.2	—
1H projected score	EKU 27.8 · AUB 46.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EKU LWLLL	11-19	37%	6-10	—
AUB LLLWW	16-22	42%	7-11	—

Venue/role: EKU away; AUB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
EKU OOOUO	19-11	63%	9-21
AUB UOUOO	22-16	58%	22-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EKU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
AUB	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

E Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs LIP	L77–80LU

Auburn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs ALST	W83–63LU
Dec 15	vs MTSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Kentucky

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

11-19

37% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L L L L L L L W L W L L L W W L W L L L L W W L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1937%

L L L L L L W W L W L W L W W W W L L L L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1163%

O U O O U O O U U U U O O O U U O O O O O U O U O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	vsWKU	L 79-87	+1.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 166
Nov 12	@VAN	L 62-92	+28.5	L −1.5	168.5	U 154
Nov 18	@KENT	L 78-93	+10.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 171
Nov 22	vsMER	L 83-95	-4.5	L −16.5	163.5	O 178
Nov 24	@NKU	L 71-82	+4.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsWOF	L 77-83	+1.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 3	@ILST	L 78-89	+12.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 167
Dec 10	@EIU	W 68-59	-6.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 127
Dec 13	vsM-OH	L 69-79	+5.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 148
Dec 17	@JXST	W 62-59	+2.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 21	@WICH	L 57-88	+14.5	L −16.5	148.5	U 145
Jan 1	@QUC	L 89-91	+4.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	@WGA	L 76-88	-1.5	L −13.5	156.5	O 164
Jan 8	vsUNA	W 88-80	-5.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 168
Jan 10	vsCARK	W 79-75	+1.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 154
Jan 15	@APSU	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 146
Jan 17	vsBELL	W 89-69	-5.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 158
Jan 22	@UNF	L 85-87	-8.5	L −10.5	166.5	O 172
Jan 24	@JAX	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 157
Jan 28	vsAPSU	L 82-90	+2.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 172
Jan 31	@CARK	L 81-90	+4.5	L −4.5	151.5	O 171
Feb 5	vsFGCU	W 76-74	-1.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 150
Feb 7	vsSTET	W 100-88	-9.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 188
Feb 11	@LIP	L 61-75	+6.5	L −7.5	160.5	U 136
Feb 15	@UNA	L 78-84	-4.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 18	vsWGA	W 81-80	-7.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 21	@BELL	W 95-92	-1.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 187
Feb 25	vsQUC	L 79-96	+2.5	L −14.5	165.5	O 175
Feb 28	vsLIP	L 77-80	+1.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 157
Mar 4	vsSTET	L 76-92	-5.5	L −21.5	155.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WKU

L 79-87

−6.5

VAN

L 62-92

−1.5

KENT

L 78-93

−4.5

MER

L 83-95

−16.5

NKU

L 71-82

−6.5

WOF

L 77-83

−4.5

ILST

L 78-89

+1.5

EIU

W 68-59

+2.5

M-OH

L 69-79

−4.5

JXST

W 62-59

+5.5

WICH

L 57-88

−16.5

QUC

L 89-91

+2.5

WGA

L 76-88

−13.5

UNA

W 88-80

+2.5

CARK

W 79-75

+5.5

APSU

L 72-74

+5.5

BELL

W 89-69

+14.5

UNF

L 85-87

−10.5

JAX

L 76-81

−3.5

APSU

L 82-90

−5.5

CARK

L 81-90

−4.5

FGCU

W 76-74

+0.5

STET

W 100-88

+2.5

LIP

L 61-75

−7.5

UNA

L 78-84

−10.5

WGA

W 81-80

−6.5

BELL

W 95-92

+1.5

QUC

L 79-96

−14.5

LIP

L 77-80

−1.5

STET

L 76-92

−21.5

covered 11didn’t cover 19avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WKU

L 79-87

+3.5

VAN

L 62-92

−14.5

KENT

L 78-93

+9.5

MER

L 83-95

+14.5

NKU

L 71-82

−3.5

WOF

L 77-83

+6.5

ILST

L 78-89

+12.5

EIU

W 68-59

−22.5

M-OH

L 69-79

−10.5

JXST

W 62-59

−21.5

WICH

L 57-88

−3.5

QUC

L 89-91

+15.5

WGA

L 76-88

+7.5

UNA

W 88-80

+19.5

CARK

W 79-75

−2.5

APSU

L 72-74

−7.5

BELL

W 89-69

+1.5

UNF

L 85-87

+5.5

JAX

L 76-81

+14.5

APSU

L 82-90

+20.5

CARK

L 81-90

+19.5

FGCU

W 76-74

−4.5

STET

W 100-88

+36.5

LIP

L 61-75

−24.5

UNA

L 78-84

+11.5

WGA

W 81-80

+6.5

BELL

W 95-92

+33.5

QUC

L 79-96

+9.5

LIP

L 77-80

−0.5

STET

L 76-92

+12.5

over 19under 11avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Auburn

38 games played

Straight up

22-16

58% wins

Against the spread

16-22

42% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-16

58% overs · avg +4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1658%

W W W L W W L W W L W L W L L W L W W W W L L L L L W L L W L W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-2242%

L W W W W W L W W L L L W W L W L L W W L L L L L L L L L W L W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

22-1658%

O O O O O O O U U O O U U O O U O U U U O U O U U O U O O O O U U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBCU	W 95-90	-24.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 185
Nov 6	vsMRMK	W 95-57	-23.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	vsWOF	W 93-62	-27.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 16	vsHOU	L 72-73	+7.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 19	vsJKST	W 112-66	-30.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsORE	W 84-73	-4.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsMICH	L 72-102	+4.5	L −25.5	163.5	O 174
Nov 26	vsSJU	W 85-74	+4.5	W +15.5	166.5	U 159
Dec 3	vsNCSU	W 83-73	-5.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 156
Dec 6	@ARIZ	L 68-97	+11.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 13	vsUTC	W 92-78	-19.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsPUR	L 60-88	+7.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 29	vsQUC	W 106-65	-25.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 171
Jan 3	@UGA	L 100-104	+6.5	W +2.5	173.5	O 204
Jan 6	vsTA&M	L 88-90	-6.5	L −8.5	168.5	O 178
Jan 10	vsARK	W 95-73	-2.5	W +19.5	169.5	U 168
Jan 14	@MIZ	L 74-84	-1.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 158
Jan 17	vsSC	W 71-67	-13.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 20	@MISS	W 78-66	-3.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 24	@FLA	W 76-67	+11.5	W +20.5	159.5	U 143
Jan 28	vsTEX	W 88-82	-6.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 170
Jan 31	@TENN	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 146
Feb 7	vsALA	L 92-96	-2.5	L −6.5	175.5	O 188
Feb 10	vsVAN	L 76-84	-3.5	L −11.5	161.5	U 160
Feb 14	@ARK	L 75-88	+7.5	L −5.5	165.5	U 163
Feb 18	@MSST	L 85-91	-5.5	L −11.5	155.5	O 176
Feb 21	vsUK	W 75-74	-3.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 149
Feb 24	@OU	L 79-91	-3.5	L −15.5	157.5	O 170
Feb 28	vsMISS	L 79-85	-10.5	L −16.5	153.5	O 164
Mar 3	vsLSU	W 88-74	-10.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 162
Mar 7	@ALA	L 84-96	+5.5	L −6.5	175.5	O 180
Mar 11	vsMSST	W 79-61	-8.5	W +9.5	160.5	U 140
Mar 12	vsTENN	L 62-72	+5.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 134
Mar 17	vsUSA	W 78-67	-18.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 22	vsSEA	W 91-85	-14.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 176
Mar 25	vsNEV	W 75-69	-8.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 144
Apr 2	vsILST	W 88-66	-7.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 154
Apr 5	vsTLSA	W 92-86	-5.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 178

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

−19.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+14.5

WOF

W 93-62

+3.5

HOU

L 72-73

+6.5

JKST

W 112-66

+15.5

ORE

W 84-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-102

−25.5

SJU

W 85-74

+15.5

NCSU

W 83-73

+4.5

ARIZ

L 68-97

−17.5

UTC

W 92-78

−5.5

PUR

L 60-88

−20.5

QUC

W 106-65

+15.5

UGA

L 100-104

+2.5

TA&M

L 88-90

−8.5

ARK

W 95-73

+19.5

MIZ

L 74-84

−11.5

W 71-67

−9.5

MISS

W 78-66

+8.5

FLA

W 76-67

+20.5

TEX

W 88-82

−0.5

TENN

L 69-77

−2.5

ALA

L 92-96

−6.5

VAN

L 76-84

−11.5

ARK

L 75-88

−5.5

MSST

L 85-91

−11.5

W 75-74

−2.5

L 79-91

−15.5

MISS

L 79-85

−16.5

LSU

W 88-74

+3.5

ALA

L 84-96

−6.5

MSST

W 79-61

+9.5

TENN

L 62-72

−4.5

USA

W 78-67

−7.5

SEA

W 91-85

−8.5

NEV

W 75-69

−2.5

ILST

W 88-66

+14.5

TLSA

W 92-86

+0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 22avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

+31.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+3.5

WOF

W 93-62

+2.5

HOU

L 72-73

+4.5

JKST

W 112-66

+21.5

ORE

W 84-73

+1.5

MICH

L 72-102

+10.5

SJU

W 85-74

−7.5

NCSU

W 83-73

−6.5

ARIZ

L 68-97

+2.5

UTC

W 92-78

+19.5

PUR

L 60-88

−4.5

QUC

W 106-65

−0.5

UGA

L 100-104

+30.5

TA&M

L 88-90

+9.5

ARK

W 95-73

−1.5

MIZ

L 74-84

+4.5

W 71-67

−14.5

MISS

W 78-66

−7.5

FLA

W 76-67

−16.5

TEX

W 88-82

+15.5

TENN

L 69-77

−1.5

ALA

L 92-96

+12.5

VAN

L 76-84

−1.5

ARK

L 75-88

−2.5

MSST

L 85-91

+20.5

W 75-74

−4.5

L 79-91

+12.5

MISS

L 79-85

+10.5

LSU

W 88-74

+6.5

ALA

L 84-96

+4.5

MSST

W 79-61

−20.5

TENN

L 62-72

−10.5

USA

W 78-67

−6.5

SEA

W 91-85

+30.5

NEV

W 75-69

−7.5

ILST

W 88-66

+4.5

TLSA

W 92-86

+19.5

over 22under 16avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Auburn has the better starters

Position by position: E Kentucky 0, Auburn 4, even 1

E KentuckyBetterAuburn

G J. Holt7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 38

AUBBig

G T. Pettiford15.4 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 88

G D. King TR2.3 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G K. Overton14.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 90

F S. Lasu TR5.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 15

AUBBig

G K. King TR7.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83

F A. Ball7.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 20

AUBBig

F T. Dowd TR14.5 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 83

F Y. Paul4.2 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 12

AUBBig

F A. Olsen TR17 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 66

E KentuckyBetterAuburn

EKU offense244th of 366 · -7.4

AUBBig

AUB defense41st of 366 · +2.8

EKU defense340th of 366 · -9.1

AUBBig

AUB offense16th of 366 · +8.7

Backcourt-1.1 · 2 players

AUBBig

Backcourt+6.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt-5.3 · 3 players

AUBBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-0.4 · 2 players

AUBBig

Bench+3.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestEKU betterAUB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

E Kentucky

Guards

J. Holt20 minD. King8 min · TRO. Hamama7 min · TRM. Miles1 minJ. McCarterNewD. VasserNew

Forwards

S. Lasu23 min · TRA. Ball20 minY. Paul17 minD. DujmovicNewJ. LoweNewM. CamaraNew

Auburn

Guards

T. Pettiford32 minK. Overton32 minK. King19 min · TRB. Muschalek6 minS. Walker5 minD. Cardwell1 min

Forwards

T. Dowd37 min · TRA. Olsen37 min · TRO. Freeman12 min · TRJ. BowmanNew

Centers

B. Oboye18 min · TRN. NgoyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

EKU77.5 #107

AUB83.0 #27

Points per possession

EKU1.11 #123

AUB1.19 #19

Pace (possessions)

EKU69.8 #128

AUB69.7 #136

Shooting

Effective FG%

EKU52.1 #141

AUB53.0 #104

3-point %

EKU35.0 #111

AUB34.4 #147

3-point attempt rate

EKU50.8 #10

AUB40.2 #166

Free throw rate

EKU30.7 #286

AUB43.2 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

EKU16.9 #194

AUB14.6 #45

Offensive rebound rate

EKU32.5 #106

AUB37.0 #15

Assists per game

EKU14.1 #139

AUB13.2 #198

Defense

Points allowed

EKU83.1 #346

AUB78.8 #287

Points allowed per possession

EKU1.19 #354

AUB1.13 #281

Opponent effective FG%

EKU56.1 #346

AUB53.7 #291

Opponent 3-point %

EKU36.2 #312

AUB36.7 #336

Turnovers forced

EKU14.8 #304

AUB16.3 #201

Defensive rebound rate

EKU68.3 #241

AUB69.1 #196

Steals per game

EKU6.1 #228

AUB7.5 #83

Blocks per game

EKU2.9 #245

AUB4.1 #63

EKU		AUB
Scoring
77.5 #107	Points per game	83.0 #27
1.11 #123	Points per possession	1.19 #19
69.8 #128	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #136
Shooting
52.1 #141	Effective FG%	53.0 #104
35.0 #111	3-point %	34.4 #147
50.8 #10	3-point attempt rate	40.2 #166
30.7 #286	Free throw rate	43.2 #19
Possessions
16.9 #194	Turnover rate	14.6 #45
32.5 #106	Offensive rebound rate	37.0 #15
14.1 #139	Assists per game	13.2 #198
Defense
83.1 #346	Points allowed	78.8 #287
1.19 #354	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #281
56.1 #346	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #291
36.2 #312	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #336
14.8 #304	Turnovers forced	16.3 #201
68.3 #241	Defensive rebound rate	69.1 #196
6.1 #228	Steals per game	7.5 #83
2.9 #245	Blocks per game	4.1 #63

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

E Kentucky

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Stetson76–92
Lvs Lipscomb77–80
Lvs Queens University Royals79–96
W@ Bellarmine95–92
Wvs West Georgia81–80

A week or more of rest.

Auburn

22-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Tulsa92–86
Wvs Illinois St88–66
Wvs Nevada75–69
Wvs Seattle U91–85
Wvs South Alabama78–67

A week or more of rest.

Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Auburn Tigers

What could decide it: AUB has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

E Kentucky

Auburn

Auburn has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

E Kentucky

Auburn