The Reef · Neutral site
LineNo line yet
Total—
 OHIO | This season | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects OHIO 78–78 · win probability OHIO 52%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: NMSU has more of the edges
OHIO 2, NMSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NMSUBigThree-pointers
OHIO hits 30.1% and allows 36.8%; NMSU hits 32.4% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 38.1% and 38.7% of their shots
NMSUBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OHIO 28.4%, NMSU 32.5%. Defensive: OHIO 67.2%, NMSU 69.7%
NMSUSmallNMSU offense vs OHIO defense
Offense 151st of 366 against a defense 260th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: OHIO plays 71.0 a game (78th fastest), NMSU 68.1 (224th). Faster games mean more points
OHIOSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: OHIO 36.9, NMSU 34.9. Allowed: OHIO 38.2, NMSU 44.2
NMSUSmallShooting
Effective FG%: OHIO 51.0 and allows 53.0; NMSU 48.5 and allows 48.7
OHIOSmallOHIO offense vs NMSU defense
Offense 81st of 366 against a defense 125th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OHIO 41%, NMSU 22%. Transfers in: OHIO 2, NMSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OHIO 15.4%, NMSU 15.0%. Forced: OHIO 16.2%, NMSU 14.7%
Context
Schedule so far
OHIO has played the 162nd-hardest schedule, NMSU the 174th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | — | OHIO -0.4 | — |
| Total | — | 156.3 | — |
| Projected score | — | OHIO 78.4 · NMSU 77.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | OHIO -0.4 | — |
| 1H total | 73.0 | — |
| 1H projected score | OHIO 36.7 · NMSU 36.3 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| NMSU | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ohio
30 games played
Straight up
13-17
43% wins
Against the spread
12-18
40% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-15
50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARST | L 85-89 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 6 | vs ILST | W 72-68 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 11 | @ SMC | L 60-90 | +17.5 | L −12.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 15 | @ LOU | L 81-106 | +31.5 | W +6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 19 | vs BCU | L 73-76 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs GMU | L 69-92 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 142.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 25 | vs LMU | L 58-70 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 3 | vs ME | W 79-57 | -12.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 6 | vs MRSH | W 88-81 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 13 | vs SBU | W 88-83 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 150.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vs BGSU | L 58-68 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | @ CMU | W 80-64 | -6.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 3 | @ EMU | W 68-67 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | vs MASS | W 86-83 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 10 | vs BUF | W 91-80 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | @ TOL | L 85-101 | +2.5 | L −13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @ BALL | L 71-76 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 20 | vs NIU | W 80-77 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 23 | vs AKR | L 65-86 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 167.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 27 | @ KENT | L 57-72 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 31 | @BUF | W 95-83 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 3 | vs WMU | W 91-71 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 7 | @ ODU | L 72-78 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Feb 13 | @ M-OH | L 74-90 | +7.5 | L −8.5 | 163.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 17 | vsBALL | W 69-57 | -9.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | U 126 |
| Feb 21 | @NIU | W 74-66 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 28 | vsTOL | L 67-79 | -1.5 | L −13.5 | 158.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 3 | @MASS | L 82-94 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | O 176 |
| Mar 6 | vsM-OH | L 108-110 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 159.5 | O 218 |
| Mar 12 | vsKENT | L 75-86 | +3.5 | L −7.5 | 161.5 | U 161 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
−7.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
+2.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
−12.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+6.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−9.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
−15.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−8.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
+9.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+3.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+11.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−8.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
+9.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−1.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
−1.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+6.5
13
@TOL
TOLL 85-101
−13.5
16
@BALL
BALLL 71-76
−10.5
20
vsNIU
NIUW 80-77
−8.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 65-86
−14.5
27
@KENT
KENTL 57-72
−9.5
31
@BUF
BUFW 95-83
+14.5
3
vsWMU
WMUW 91-71
+9.5
7
@ODU
ODUL 72-78
−9.5
13
@M-OH
M-OHL 74-90
−8.5
17
vsBALL
BALLW 69-57
+2.5
21
@NIU
NIUW 74-66
+1.5
28
vsTOL
TOLL 67-79
−13.5
3
@MASS
MASSL 82-94
−10.5
6
vsM-OH
M-OHL 108-110
+1.5
12
vsKENT
KENTL 75-86
−7.5
covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
+14.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
−21.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
+5.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+12.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−8.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
+18.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−16.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
−2.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+11.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+20.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−27.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
−7.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−15.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
+8.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+14.5
13
@TOL
TOLL 85-101
+24.5
16
@BALL
BALLL 71-76
−0.5
20
vsNIU
NIUW 80-77
+2.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 65-86
−16.5
27
@KENT
KENTL 57-72
−33.5
31
@BUF
BUFW 95-83
+21.5
3
vsWMU
WMUW 91-71
+6.5
7
@ODU
ODUL 72-78
−6.5
13
@M-OH
M-OHL 74-90
+0.5
17
vsBALL
BALLW 69-57
−19.5
21
@NIU
NIUW 74-66
−8.5
28
vsTOL
TOLL 67-79
−12.5
3
@MASS
MASSL 82-94
+19.5
6
vsM-OH
M-OHL 108-110
+58.5
12
vsKENT
KENTL 75-86
−0.5
over 15under 15avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
New Mexico St
29 games played
Straight up
13-16
45% wins
Against the spread
14-15
48% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-13
55% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15 | vs UNM | W 76-68 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 139.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAM | W 81-72 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCI | W 57-45 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | U 102 |
| Nov 26 | vs GAST | W 77-58 | -12.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | vs USA | L 75-77 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 6 | @ ACU | L 69-77 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 131.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 13 | vs TLSA | L 70-83 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 21 | vs SHSU | W 87-78 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 2 | @ FIU | L 74-89 | -1.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 4 | @ MOST | L 82-89 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 8 | vs WKU | W 80-64 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vs MTSU | L 55-59 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 15 | @ LIB | L 71-73 | +8.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | @ DEL | W 97-68 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 134.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 22 | vsMOST | L 75-84 | -6.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vsFIU | L 78-81 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 28 | vsDEL | L 64-73 | -13.5 | L −22.5 | 137.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 31 | @ KENN | L 53-76 | +3.5 | L −19.5 | 159.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 4 | @ LT | W 72-63 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 135.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 7 | @ UTEP | L 88-91 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 138.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 11 | vsLIB | L 75-77 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 14 | @ JXST | W 79-70 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 139.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 21 | vsUTEP | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 26 | @WKU | L 70-93 | +4.5 | L −18.5 | 151.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 28 | @MTSU | L 85-86 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | O 171 |
| Mar 5 | vsJXST | W 77-75 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Mar 7 | vsKENN | W 79-76 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Mar 10 | vsJXST | W 68-63 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 141.5 | U 131 |
| Mar 11 | vsSHSU | L 61-69 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
15
vsUNM
UNMW 76-68
+11.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 81-72
+0.5
25
vsUCI
UCIW 57-45
+14.5
26
vsGAST
GASTW 77-58
+6.5
2
vsUSA
USAL 75-77
−4.5
6
@ACU
ACUL 69-77
−9.5
13
vsTLSA
TLSAL 70-83
−8.5
21
vsSHSU
SHSUW 87-78
+3.5
2
@FIU
FIUL 74-89
−16.5
4
@MOST
MOSTL 82-89
−5.5
8
vsWKU
WKUW 80-64
+13.5
10
vsMTSU
MTSUL 55-59
−7.5
15
@LIB
LIBL 71-73
+6.5
17
@DEL
DELW 97-68
+24.5
22
vsMOST
MOSTL 75-84
−15.5
24
vsFIU
FIUL 78-81
−10.5
28
vsDEL
DELL 64-73
−22.5
31
@KENN
KENNL 53-76
−19.5
4
@LT
LTW 72-63
+10.5
7
@UTEP
UTEPL 88-91
−4.5
11
vsLIB
LIBL 75-77
+1.5
14
@JXST
JXSTW 79-70
+10.5
21
vsUTEP
UTEPW 67-63
−3.5
26
@WKU
WKUL 70-93
−18.5
28
@MTSU
MTSUL 85-86
+4.5
5
vsJXST
JXSTW 77-75
−4.5
7
vsKENN
KENNW 79-76
+1.5
10
vsJXST
JXSTW 68-63
+3.5
11
vsSHSU
SHSUL 61-69
−3.5
covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
15
vsUNM
UNMW 76-68
+4.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 81-72
+7.5
25
vsUCI
UCIW 57-45
−37.5
26
vsGAST
GASTW 77-58
−1.5
2
vsUSA
USAL 75-77
+16.5
6
@ACU
ACUL 69-77
+14.5
13
vsTLSA
TLSAL 70-83
+6.5
21
vsSHSU
SHSUW 87-78
+11.5
2
@FIU
FIUL 74-89
+5.5
4
@MOST
MOSTL 82-89
+36.5
8
vsWKU
WKUW 80-64
−10.5
10
vsMTSU
MTSUL 55-59
−30.5
15
@LIB
LIBL 71-73
−1.5
17
@DEL
DELW 97-68
+30.5
22
vsMOST
MOSTL 75-84
+14.5
24
vsFIU
FIUL 78-81
−0.5
28
vsDEL
DELL 64-73
−0.5
31
@KENN
KENNL 53-76
−30.5
4
@LT
LTW 72-63
−0.5
7
@UTEP
UTEPL 88-91
+40.5
11
vsLIB
LIBL 75-77
+7.5
14
@JXST
JXSTW 79-70
+9.5
21
vsUTEP
UTEPW 67-63
−12.5
26
@WKU
WKUL 70-93
+11.5
28
@MTSU
MTSUL 85-86
+22.5
5
vsJXST
JXSTW 77-75
+6.5
7
vsKENN
KENNW 79-76
−2.5
10
vsJXST
JXSTW 68-63
−10.5
11
vsSHSU
SHSUL 61-69
−24.5
over 16under 13avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ohio has the better starters
Position by position: Ohio 2, New Mexico St 1, even 2
OhioBetterNew Mexico St
G J. Paveletzke17.8 pts · 3 reb · 5.1 ast
Score 89
←OHIOBig
G J. Washington TR11.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 34
G K. D'Augustino TR19.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 79
=Even
G G. Warren TR12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 68
G K. Mitchell TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 76
=Even
G D. Dudley TR14.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast
Score 65
G J. Burris3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast
Score 11
→NMSUSmall
F M. Lavrenov TR10.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 40
F J. Simmons15.4 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 90
←OHIOBig
F J. Osborne6.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 42
OhioBetterNew Mexico St
OHIO offense81st of 366 · +0.5
=Even
NMSU defense125th of 366 · -2.3
OHIO defense260th of 366 · -6.7
→NMSUSmall
NMSU offense151st of 366 · -4.6
Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players
←OHIOBig
Backcourt-1.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player
←OHIOBig
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Bench-0.4 · 1 player
←OHIOSmall
Bench-2.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestOHIO betterNMSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
OhioGuards
J. Paveletzke37 minK. D'Augustino33 min · TRK. Mitchell31 min · TRJ. Burris10 minC. ReeseNewS. LedegenNew
Forwards
J. Simmons28 minK. Kuany8 minZ. MosleyNewC. TrudicNewJ. BowensNewD. MakitanNew
Centers
M. IckeNew
New Mexico StGuards
J. Washington35 min · TRG. Warren32 min · TRD. Dudley31 min · TRG. Pickens21 minK. RobinsonNewD. GrantNew
Forwards
M. Lavrenov28 min · TRJ. Osborne24 minS. Payne20 min · TRL. Levillain20 min · TRP. WoodsonNew
Centers
A. DiongueNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
OHIO76.7 #126NMSU73.8 #207Points per possession
OHIO1.08 #194NMSU1.08 #179Pace (possessions)
OHIO71.0 #78NMSU68.1 #224Shooting
Effective FG%
OHIO51.0 #197NMSU48.5 #3023-point %
OHIO30.1 #341NMSU32.4 #2573-point attempt rate
OHIO38.1 #211NMSU38.7 #198Free throw rate
OHIO36.9 #132NMSU34.9 #186Possessions
Turnover rate
OHIO15.4 #97NMSU15.0 #66Offensive rebound rate
OHIO28.4 #248NMSU32.5 #105Assists per game
OHIO12.6 #242NMSU12.5 #250Defense
Points allowed
OHIO80.0 #319NMSU73.8 #150Points allowed per possession
OHIO1.13 #295NMSU1.08 #179Opponent effective FG%
OHIO53.0 #269NMSU48.7 #52Opponent 3-point %
OHIO36.8 #340NMSU32.4 #83Turnovers forced
OHIO16.2 #213NMSU14.7 #311Defensive rebound rate
OHIO67.2 #289NMSU69.7 #175Steals per game
OHIO5.7 #267NMSU5.7 #276Blocks per game
OHIO3.4 #163NMSU3.0 #221| OHIO | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 76.7 #126 | Points per game | 73.8 #207 |
| 1.08 #194 | Points per possession | 1.08 #179 |
| 71.0 #78 | Pace (possessions) | 68.1 #224 |
| Shooting | ||
| 51.0 #197 | Effective FG% | 48.5 #302 |
| 30.1 #341 | 3-point % | 32.4 #257 |
| 38.1 #211 | 3-point attempt rate | 38.7 #198 |
| 36.9 #132 | Free throw rate | 34.9 #186 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.4 #97 | Turnover rate | 15.0 #66 |
| 28.4 #248 | Offensive rebound rate | 32.5 #105 |
| 12.6 #242 | Assists per game | 12.5 #250 |
| Defense | ||
| 80.0 #319 | Points allowed | 73.8 #150 |
| 1.13 #295 | Points allowed per possession | 1.08 #179 |
| 53.0 #269 | Opponent effective FG% | 48.7 #52 |
| 36.8 #340 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.4 #83 |
| 16.2 #213 | Turnovers forced | 14.7 #311 |
| 67.2 #289 | Defensive rebound rate | 69.7 #175 |
| 5.7 #267 | Steals per game | 5.7 #276 |
| 3.4 #163 | Blocks per game | 3.0 #221 |
Ohio
13-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Kent State75–86
- Lvs Miami OH108–110
- L@ UMass82–94
- Lvs Toledo67–79
- W@ N Illinois74–66
A week or more of rest.
New Mexico St
13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Sam Houston61–69
- Wvs Jax State68–63
- Wvs Kennesaw St79–76
- Wvs Jax State77–75
- L@ MTSU85–86
A week or more of rest.