1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 23
  3. AKR vs WRST
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 23

Akron Zips vs Wright State Raiders

State Farm Field House · Neutral site
#118AKRAkron
vs
#180WRSTWright St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
AKRThis seasonWRST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AKR 80–74 · win probability AKR 69%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AKR has more of the edges

AKR 3, WRST 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
AKRBig
AKR offense vs WRST defense
Offense 101st of 366 against a defense 215th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
AKR has played the 159th-hardest schedule, WRST the 264th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WRSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: AKR 29.2, WRST 37.4. Allowed: AKR 30.4, WRST 33.3
AKRSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: AKR 15.5%, WRST 16.1%. Forced: AKR 18.3%, WRST 16.6%
AKRSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: AKR 58.1 and allows 51.2; WRST 54.3 and allows 52.4
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: AKR plays 71.1 a game (70th fastest), WRST 69.1 (171st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
AKR hits 38.2% and allows 35.5%; WRST hits 36.4% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 44.8% and 34.2% of their shots
Even
WRST offense vs AKR defense
Offense 148th of 366 against a defense 168th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: AKR 28%, WRST 32%. Transfers in: AKR 5, WRST 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: AKR 33.4%, WRST 32.8%. Defensive: AKR 70.1%, WRST 70.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—AKR -5.8—
Total—154.4—
Projected score—AKR 80.1 · WRST 74.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadAKR -3.6—
1H total72.2—
1H projected scoreAKR 37.9 · WRST 34.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Akron has the better starters

Position by position: Akron 2, Wright St 1, even 2
AkronBetterWright St
G T. Staveskie TR17.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 74
Even
G C. O'Hara TR14.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 66
G T. Pence TR9.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 86
AKRBig
G D. Pangonis8.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30
F E. Mahaffey9.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.4 ast Score 69
AKRBig
G C. Traylor TR3.8 pts · 1.1 reb · 2 ast Score 21
F M. Burton TR5.5 pts · 5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14
WRSTBig
G A. Holden5.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 78
F B. Hammer TR4.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 55
Even
F K. Pickett8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 67
AkronBetterWright St
AKR offense101st of 366 · -1.1
AKRSmall
WRST defense215th of 366 · -5.6
AKR defense168th of 366 · -3.7
Even
WRST offense148th of 366 · -4.5
Backcourt+2.7 · 2 players
AKRBig
Backcourt-2.5 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players
WRSTSmall
Frontcourt+0.6 · 1 player
Bench-2.6 · 4 players
WRSTSmall
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestAKR betterWRST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Akron
Guards
T. Staveskie36 min · TRT. Pence24 min · TRC. HeadNewT. PerkinsNewJ. HendersonNewE. WilsonNew
Forwards
E. Mahaffey29 minM. Burton25 min · TRB. Hammer14 min · TRZ. Halligan12 minC. White9 min · TRM. Musiime-Kamali9 min
Wright St
Guards
C. O'Hara33 min · TRD. Pangonis27 minC. Traylor17 min · TRA. Holden14 minI. Milijasevic8 min · TRP. DouglasNew
Forwards
K. Pickett23 minS. JohnsonNewN. LewisNew
Centers
N. Djapa10 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
AKRWRST
Scoring
86.4 #8Points per game79.8 #72
1.22 #6Points per possession1.16 #54
71.1 #70Pace (possessions)69.1 #171
Shooting
58.1 #9Effective FG%54.3 #56
38.2 #153-point %36.4 #44
44.8 #743-point attempt rate34.2 #290
29.2 #327Free throw rate37.4 #120
Possessions
15.5 #104Turnover rate16.1 #149
33.4 #78Offensive rebound rate32.8 #91
17.7 #12Assists per game13.2 #199
Defense
75.0 #188Points allowed75.6 #206
1.06 #98Points allowed per possession1.09 #201
51.2 #173Opponent effective FG%52.4 #238
35.5 #284Opponent 3-point %34.3 #203
18.3 #86Turnovers forced16.6 #179
70.1 #156Defensive rebound rate70.6 #129
7.2 #108Steals per game7.1 #114
2.9 #240Blocks per game4.4 #47
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Akron

27-6 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas Tech71–91
  • Wvs Toledo79–76
  • Wvs Kent State75–68
  • Wvs Buffalo73–70
  • Wvs N Illinois94–55

A week or more of rest.

Wright St

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Virginia73–82
  • Wvs Detroit Mercy66–63
  • Wvs N Kentucky103–90
  • Wvs Cleveland St90–61
  • W@ N Kentucky92–91

A week or more of rest.