Siena Saints at Bucknell Bison: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 AM ETSojka Pavilion · at Bucknell

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Siena and Bucknell
SIE	This season	BUCK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SIE 71–70 · win probability SIE 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SIE has more of the edges

SIE 6, BUCK 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SIEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SIE 50.4 and allows 48.5; BUCK 48.5 and allows 54.7

SIEBig

Three-pointers

SIE hits 30.6% and allows 32.4%; BUCK hits 30.6% and allows 37.0%. Threes are 32.2% and 42.8% of their shots

SIEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SIE 33.4, BUCK 29.8. Allowed: SIE 27.5, BUCK 35.3

SIEBig

BUCK offense vs SIE defense

Offense 317th of 366 against a defense 194th, on the model’s ratings

SIEBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SIE 31.8%, BUCK 27.0%. Defensive: SIE 70.5%, BUCK 68.7%

Context

Schedule so far

SIE has played the 320th-hardest schedule, BUCK the 227th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BUCKSmall

SIE offense vs BUCK defense

Offense 309th of 366 against a defense 237th, on the model’s ratings

SIESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SIE 15.8%, BUCK 18.9%. Forced: SIE 17.0%, BUCK 17.9%

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: SIE plays 64.4 a game (354th fastest), BUCK 67.7 (242nd). Faster games mean more points

BUCKSmall

Home court

BUCK at home. This season: BUCK 0-0 at home, SIE 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SIE 28%, BUCK 39%. Transfers in: SIE 1, BUCK 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SIE -1.5	—
Total	—	140.5	—
Projected score	—	SIE 71 · BUCK 69.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SIE -1.0	—
1H total	65.8	—
1H projected score	SIE 33.4 · BUCK 32.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SIE WWWWW	21-14	60%	9-7	—
BUCK LWLWW	14-19	42%	5-9	—

Venue/role: SIE away; BUCK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SIE UUUUU	11-24	31%	23-12
BUCK UOOUO	13-20	39%	10-23

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SIE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	1-9 10%
BUCK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Siena

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs UVM	L69–83LO
Nov 28	@ HALL	W60–55WU
Dec 4	vs MRMK	W64–54WU

Bucknell

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ COR	L72–101LO
Nov 27	vs LAS	L57–69LU
Nov 28	@ PENN	L61–80LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SIE 1–1 BUCKSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · SIE 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 30, 2024-25	SIE 71 vs BUCK 58	BUCK -3.5	SIE W
Nov 28, 2021-22	SIE 56 @ BUCK 65	BUCK -1	BUCK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Siena

35 games played

Straight up

23-12

66% wins

Against the spread

21-14

60% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1266%

W W L L W W W W W W W L L L W L W L W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1460%

W W W L L L W W L W W L W L W L W L W W W L W L L L W L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-2431%

U U O U U O U U U O U O U U O U U O U O U O O O U U U O U U U U U U U

7 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRY	W 82-66	-13.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 7	@BRWN	W 62-46	-3.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 12	@SBU	L 66-75	+9.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 17	vsCOLG	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 21	vsUALB	W 73-63	-10.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 24	@HC	W 73-69	-9.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 28	vsLONG	W 70-63	-5.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AMER	W 59-55	-2.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsME	W 64-60	-9.5	L −5.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 5	vsNIA	W 83-54	-12.5	W +16.5	129.5	O 137
Dec 7	vsCAN	W 74-52	-17.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 126
Dec 17	@UVM	L 69-83	+2.5	L −11.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 22	@IU	L 60-81	+21.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 2	@IONA	L 72-75	-1.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 147
Jan 4	@RID	W 74-65	-8.5	W +0.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 9	vsMRMK	L 59-63	-5.5	L −9.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 11	@MSM	W 67-50	-2.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 117
Jan 14	vsSHU	L 80-86	-8.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 166
Jan 17	@MAN	W 74-59	-6.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 133
Jan 19	vsFAIR	W 85-77	-6.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 162
Jan 22	vsMRST	W 69-50	-1.5	W +17.5	133.5	U 119
Jan 30	@NIA	W 82-79	-9.5	L −6.5	128.5	O 161
Feb 1	@CAN	W 78-63	-8.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 5	vsIONA	W 79-72	-8.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 7	@SPU	L 65-70	-1.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 13	vsQUIN	L 62-74	-3.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 136
Feb 15	@MRST	W 67-63	+2.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 130
Feb 20	@MRMK	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	133.5	O 151
Feb 22	vsSPU	W 72-63	-5.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 27	@FAIR	L 58-72	-1.5	L −15.5	142.5	U 130
Mar 1	vsRID	W 76-61	-14.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 137
Mar 7	vsMSM	W 63-58	-2.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 121
Mar 8	vsFAIR	W 76-61	-1.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 137
Mar 10	vsMRMK	W 64-54	+2.5	W +12.5	128.5	U 118
Mar 19	vsDUKE	L 65-71	+28.5	W +22.5	137.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

+2.5

BRWN

W 62-46

+12.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−9.5

UALB

W 73-63

−0.5

W 73-69

−5.5

LONG

W 70-63

+1.5

AMER

W 59-55

+1.5

W 64-60

−5.5

NIA

W 83-54

+16.5

CAN

W 74-52

+4.5

UVM

L 69-83

−11.5

L 60-81

+0.5

IONA

L 72-75

−4.5

RID

W 74-65

+0.5

MRMK

L 59-63

−9.5

MSM

W 67-50

+14.5

SHU

L 80-86

−14.5

MAN

W 74-59

+8.5

FAIR

W 85-77

+1.5

MRST

W 69-50

+17.5

NIA

W 82-79

−6.5

CAN

W 78-63

+6.5

IONA

W 79-72

−1.5

SPU

L 65-70

−6.5

QUIN

L 62-74

−15.5

MRST

W 67-63

+6.5

MRMK

L 72-79

−4.5

SPU

W 72-63

+3.5

FAIR

L 58-72

−15.5

RID

W 76-61

+0.5

MSM

W 63-58

+2.5

FAIR

W 76-61

+13.5

MRMK

W 64-54

+12.5

DUKE

L 65-71

+22.5

covered 21didn’t cover 14avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

−0.5

BRWN

W 62-46

−34.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−5.5

UALB

W 73-63

−4.5

W 73-69

+4.5

LONG

W 70-63

−12.5

AMER

W 59-55

−23.5

W 64-60

−3.5

NIA

W 83-54

+7.5

CAN

W 74-52

−5.5

UVM

L 69-83

+17.5

L 60-81

−4.5

IONA

L 72-75

−2.5

RID

W 74-65

+3.5

MRMK

L 59-63

−10.5

MSM

W 67-50

−22.5

SHU

L 80-86

+26.5

MAN

W 74-59

−11.5

FAIR

W 85-77

+19.5

MRST

W 69-50

−14.5

NIA

W 82-79

+32.5

CAN

W 78-63

+5.5

IONA

W 79-72

+10.5

SPU

L 65-70

−0.5

QUIN

L 62-74

−8.5

MRST

W 67-63

−3.5

MRMK

L 72-79

+17.5

SPU

W 72-63

−0.5

FAIR

L 58-72

−12.5

RID

W 76-61

−0.5

MSM

W 63-58

−14.5

FAIR

W 76-61

−1.5

MRMK

W 64-54

−10.5

DUKE

L 65-71

−1.5

over 11under 24avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucknell

33 games played

Straight up

10-23

30% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2330%

W W L L L L L L L L L W L L W L W W L L L L W W L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

W W L L L L W W L W L W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2039%

U U U O U U U U O O U U U U U U U O O O U O O U U O O U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 17	@PITT	L 50-84	+16.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	@SJU	L 49-97	+28.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsBGSU	L 66-71	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsBUF	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsCOR	L 72-101	+5.5	L −23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 3	@AKR	L 77-97	+23.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 174
Dec 6	vsUMBC	L 66-73	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 9	@RID	W 51-38	-2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 20	@IOWA	L 39-94	+25.5	L −29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 31	@HC	L 58-65	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsLEH	W 72-65	-4.5	W +2.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 7	@NAVY	L 55-76	+8.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsL-MD	W 70-67	-6.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsLAF	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	@COLG	L 76-95	+8.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 21	vsARMY	L 84-87	-4.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 171
Jan 24	@L-MD	L 62-67	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 129
Jan 28	@LAF	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBU	W 103-97	+1.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 4	@AMER	W 60-59	+7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	vsCOLG	L 59-78	+5.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 9	vsNAVY	L 60-76	+6.5	L −9.5	135.5	O 136
Feb 14	@BU	L 69-82	+5.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsAMER	L 57-75	+3.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	vsHC	L 63-72	-2.5	L −11.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 25	@ARMY	W 75-73	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 148
Feb 28	@LEH	L 79-89	+5.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 168
Mar 3	vsARMY	W 65-55	-1.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NAVY	L 69-74	+15.5	W +10.5	133.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

PITT

L 50-84

−17.5

SJU

L 49-97

−19.5

BGSU

L 66-71

+5.5

BUF

L 71-73

+2.5

COR

L 72-101

−23.5

AKR

L 77-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−8.5

RID

W 51-38

+10.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−29.5

L 58-65

−8.5

LEH

W 72-65

+2.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−12.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−3.5

LAF

W 76-69

+4.5

COLG

L 76-95

−10.5

ARMY

L 84-87

−7.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−2.5

LAF

L 79-81

+2.5

W 103-97

+7.5

AMER

W 60-59

+8.5

COLG

L 59-78

−13.5

NAVY

L 60-76

−9.5

L 69-82

−7.5

AMER

L 57-75

−14.5

L 63-72

−11.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+4.5

LEH

L 79-89

−4.5

ARMY

W 65-55

+8.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

PITT

L 50-84

−7.5

SJU

L 49-97

−12.5

BGSU

L 66-71

−7.5

BUF

L 71-73

−2.5

COR

L 72-101

+13.5

AKR

L 77-97

+16.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−4.5

RID

W 51-38

−46.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−0.5

L 58-65

−10.5

LEH

W 72-65

−0.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−6.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−6.5

LAF

W 76-69

+7.5

COLG

L 76-95

+31.5

ARMY

L 84-87

+26.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−18.5

LAF

L 79-81

+21.5

W 103-97

+61.5

AMER

W 60-59

−22.5

COLG

L 59-78

−4.5

NAVY

L 60-76

+0.5

L 69-82

+13.5

AMER

L 57-75

−8.5

L 63-72

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+5.5

LEH

L 79-89

+29.5

ARMY

W 65-55

−24.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+9.5

over 13under 20avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Siena 0, Bucknell 0, even 5

SienaBetterBucknell

G T. Yildizoglu TR10.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 30

Even

G J. Williams7.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 23

G B. Coyle8.7 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 17

Even

G A. Pachucki5.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 25

G I. Henderson3.8 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 12

No call

G K. Marshall TR3.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

G O. Schlager2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Meachem1.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 2

G C. Torres0.5 pts · 0 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F L. Soroa Schaller TR5.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 13

SienaBetterBucknell

SIE offense309th of 366 · -9.6

BUCKSmall

BUCK defense237th of 366 · -6.2

SIE defense194th of 366 · -4.7

SIESmall

BUCK offense317th of 366 · -10.4

Backcourt-7.7 · 5 players

BUCKSmall

Backcourt-6.2 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.9 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestSIE betterBUCK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Siena

Guards

T. Yildizoglu32 min · TRB. Coyle31 minI. Henderson14 minO. Schlager10 minC. Torres3 minR. DucharmeNew

Bucknell

Guards

J. Williams33 minA. Pachucki21 minK. Marshall17 min · TRJ. Meachem10 minM. Lange3 minR. LamunoNew

Forwards

L. Soroa Schaller21 min · TRP. O'Brien10 minK. Welch2 minE. Marten-ConeyNewL. BergsengNewA. RousseauNew

Centers

D. KennardNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SIE70.4 #276

BUCK67.4 #327

Points per possession

SIE1.09 #154

BUCK0.99 #332

Pace (possessions)

SIE64.4 #354

BUCK67.7 #242

Shooting

Effective FG%

SIE50.4 #222

BUCK48.5 #304

3-point %

SIE30.6 #330

BUCK30.6 #328

3-point attempt rate

SIE32.2 #327

BUCK42.8 #123

Free throw rate

SIE33.4 #226

BUCK29.8 #314

Possessions

Turnover rate

SIE15.8 #126

BUCK18.9 #319

Offensive rebound rate

SIE31.8 #133

BUCK27.0 #295

Assists per game

SIE13.5 #182

BUCK12.7 #235

Defense

Points allowed

SIE65.8 #12

BUCK76.3 #226

Points allowed per possession

SIE1.02 #44

BUCK1.13 #289

Opponent effective FG%

SIE48.5 #48

BUCK54.7 #323

Opponent 3-point %

SIE32.4 #82

BUCK37.0 #344

Turnovers forced

SIE17.0 #154

BUCK17.9 #100

Defensive rebound rate

SIE70.5 #133

BUCK68.7 #216

Steals per game

SIE5.8 #262

BUCK7.2 #105

Blocks per game

SIE3.1 #205

BUCK1.8 #354

SIE		BUCK
Scoring
70.4 #276	Points per game	67.4 #327
1.09 #154	Points per possession	0.99 #332
64.4 #354	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #242
Shooting
50.4 #222	Effective FG%	48.5 #304
30.6 #330	3-point %	30.6 #328
32.2 #327	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #123
33.4 #226	Free throw rate	29.8 #314
Possessions
15.8 #126	Turnover rate	18.9 #319
31.8 #133	Offensive rebound rate	27.0 #295
13.5 #182	Assists per game	12.7 #235
Defense
65.8 #12	Points allowed	76.3 #226
1.02 #44	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #289
48.5 #48	Opponent effective FG%	54.7 #323
32.4 #82	Opponent 3-point %	37.0 #344
17.0 #154	Turnovers forced	17.9 #100
70.5 #133	Defensive rebound rate	68.7 #216
5.8 #262	Steals per game	7.2 #105
3.1 #205	Blocks per game	1.8 #354

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Siena

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duke65–71
Wvs Merrimack64–54
Wvs Fairfield76–61
Wvs Mount St Marys63–58
Wvs Rider76–61

A week or more of rest.

Bucknell

10-23 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Navy69–74
Wvs Army65–55
L@ Lehigh79–89
W@ Army75–73
Lvs Holy Cross63–72

A week or more of rest.

Siena Saints at Bucknell Bison

What could decide it: SIE has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Siena

Bucknell

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Siena

Bucknell