Northern Iowa Panthers vs Davidson Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 23, 11:00 AM ETSuncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Northern Iowa and Davidson
UNI	This season	DAV
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAV 69–68 · win probability DAV 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 137.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNI has more of the edges

UNI 4, DAV 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DAVBig

UNI offense vs DAV defense

Offense 204th of 366 against a defense 84th, on the model’s ratings

UNISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNI 53.8 and allows 47.5; DAV 52.6 and allows 50.6

DAVSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNI 10%, DAV 49%. Transfers in: UNI 5, DAV 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UNISmall

DAV offense vs UNI defense

Offense 149th of 366 against a defense 92nd, on the model’s ratings

UNISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNI 25.6, DAV 31.0. Allowed: UNI 29.6, DAV 37.1

UNISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNI 14.5%, DAV 15.8%. Forced: UNI 18.0%, DAV 17.5%

Context

Schedule so far

UNI has played the 133rd-hardest schedule, DAV the 91st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

UNI hits 34.7% and allows 29.1%; DAV hits 35.4% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 39.1% and 44.5% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNI 21.8%, DAV 28.1%. Defensive: UNI 73.5%, DAV 70.0%

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Context

Tempo

About 64 possessions: UNI plays 63.9 a game (361st fastest), DAV 65.0 (347th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DAV -1.2	—
Total	—	137.0	—
Projected score	—	UNI 67.9 · DAV 69.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DAV -0.6	—
1H total	64.2	—
1H projected score	UNI 31.8 · DAV 32.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UNI LWLWL	19-16	54%	3-4	—
DAV LWLLW	14-18	44%	1-3	—

Venue/role: UNI neutral site; DAV neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNI UUOOU	14-21	40%	22-13
DAV OUUUO	14-18	44%	18-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNI	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
DAV	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Northern Iowa

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs CLT	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs RMU	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ KU	No recent meeting

Davidson

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs TULN	No recent meeting
Nov 29	@ FAU	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs DART	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northern Iowa

35 games played

Straight up

22-13

63% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-21

40% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1363%

W W W W W W L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L W W W L W W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

W L W L W W L L W W W W L W L L L L W W L W W W L W W L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-2140%

U U U U O U U O U U U U O U O O O U U O U U U O O O O U O U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsCSUN	W 86-57	-9.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	vsSDST	W 65-58	-10.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 14	vsFUR	W 70-54	-9.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 18	vsNIU	W 70-57	-19.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 22	@UCI	W 70-69	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 139
Nov 25	vsLUC	W 72-51	-8.5	W +12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsTLSA	L 60-63	-2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsWICH	L 69-74	-1.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 143
Dec 13	vsOAK	W 75-63	-8.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 138
Dec 17	@UIC	W 60-54	-5.5	W +0.5	133.5	U 114
Dec 22	@SMC	L 58-63	+11.5	W +6.5	132.5	U 121
Dec 29	vsVAL	W 58-48	-8.5	W +1.5	131.5	U 106
Jan 1	vsINST	W 75-66	-10.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 4	@EVAN	W 62-48	-4.5	W +9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsBEL	L 65-78	-2.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 143
Jan 10	@BRAD	L 69-75	+4.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 144
Jan 13	vsUIC	L 61-69	-6.5	L −14.5	128.5	O 130
Jan 17	@VAL	L 44-54	-1.5	L −11.5	130.5	U 98
Jan 21	@ILST	L 54-59	+6.5	W +1.5	132.5	U 113
Jan 24	vsMUR	W 81-76	+1.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 157
Jan 28	@SIU	L 50-65	-1.5	L −16.5	130.5	U 115
Jan 31	vsEVAN	W 71-55	-11.5	W +4.5	128.5	U 126
Feb 6	vsBRAD	W 61-49	-3.5	W +8.5	134.5	U 110
Feb 9	@MUR	W 89-60	+4.5	W +33.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 12	@BEL	L 86-91	+4.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 177
Feb 15	vsDRKE	W 86-62	-8.5	W +15.5	138.5	O 148
Feb 18	@INST	W 81-60	-5.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 21	vsSIU	L 57-59	-6.5	L −8.5	134.5	U 116
Feb 25	vsILST	L 69-71	-4.5	L −6.5	132.5	O 140
Mar 1	@DRKE	W 75-53	-4.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 128
Mar 5	vsEVAN	W 68-59	-13.5	L −4.5	127.5	U 127
Mar 6	vsILST	W 74-52	-1.5	W +20.5	130.5	U 126
Mar 7	vsBRAD	W 73-69	-4.5	L −0.5	127.5	O 142
Mar 8	vsUIC	W 84-69	-2.5	W +12.5	125.5	O 153
Mar 20	vsSJU	L 53-79	+10.5	L −15.5	133.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

+19.5

SDST

W 65-58

−3.5

FUR

W 70-54

+6.5

NIU

W 70-57

−6.5

UCI

W 70-69

+3.5

LUC

W 72-51

+12.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−5.5

WICH

L 69-74

−6.5

OAK

W 75-63

+3.5

UIC

W 60-54

+0.5

SMC

L 58-63

+6.5

VAL

W 58-48

+1.5

INST

W 75-66

−1.5

EVAN

W 62-48

+9.5

BEL

L 65-78

−15.5

BRAD

L 69-75

−1.5

UIC

L 61-69

−14.5

VAL

L 44-54

−11.5

ILST

L 54-59

+1.5

MUR

W 81-76

+6.5

SIU

L 50-65

−16.5

EVAN

W 71-55

+4.5

BRAD

W 61-49

+8.5

MUR

W 89-60

+33.5

BEL

L 86-91

−0.5

DRKE

W 86-62

+15.5

INST

W 81-60

+15.5

SIU

L 57-59

−8.5

ILST

L 69-71

−6.5

DRKE

W 75-53

+17.5

EVAN

W 68-59

−4.5

ILST

W 74-52

+20.5

BRAD

W 73-69

−0.5

UIC

W 84-69

+12.5

SJU

L 53-79

−15.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

−10.5

SDST

W 65-58

−27.5

FUR

W 70-54

−17.5

NIU

W 70-57

−19.5

UCI

W 70-69

+0.5

LUC

W 72-51

−11.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−14.5

WICH

L 69-74

+7.5

OAK

W 75-63

−11.5

UIC

W 60-54

−19.5

SMC

L 58-63

−11.5

VAL

W 58-48

−25.5

INST

W 75-66

+5.5

EVAN

W 62-48

−21.5

BEL

L 65-78

+5.5

BRAD

L 69-75

+12.5

UIC

L 61-69

+1.5

VAL

L 44-54

−32.5

ILST

L 54-59

−19.5

MUR

W 81-76

+11.5

SIU

L 50-65

−15.5

EVAN

W 71-55

−2.5

BRAD

W 61-49

−24.5

MUR

W 89-60

+3.5

BEL

L 86-91

+38.5

DRKE

W 86-62

+9.5

INST

W 81-60

+4.5

SIU

L 57-59

−18.5

ILST

L 69-71

+7.5

DRKE

W 75-53

−9.5

EVAN

W 68-59

−0.5

ILST

W 74-52

−4.5

BRAD

W 73-69

+14.5

UIC

W 84-69

+27.5

SJU

L 53-79

−1.5

over 14under 21avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Davidson

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

W W W W L W W L W L L L W W L W W L L W L W L W L W W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W L W L W L L W L L L W W L W W L L W L W L L L W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O U O U O O O U U U O O U O U O U U U U O O U U U U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsWSU	W 85-69	-4.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 11	@CLT	W 62-55	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 117
Nov 15	vsBGSU	W 91-87	-4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 178
Nov 21	vsBC	W 59-49	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 108
Nov 23	vsUSU	L 60-94	+9.5	L −24.5	147.5	O 154
Nov 28	vsNCAT	W 90-74	-13.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 4	vsCIT	W 79-63	-18.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 7	vsSMC	L 61-70	+8.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 131
Dec 13	vsMERC	W 80-47	-11.5	W +21.5	132.5	U 127
Dec 18	vsTEM	L 63-68	-5.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 22	@KU	L 61-90	+14.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 151
Dec 30	vsDUQ	L 83-89	-2.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 172
Jan 3	@JOES	W 62-56	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 7	@LUC	W 79-64	-1.5	W +13.5	136.5	O 143
Jan 10	vsURI	L 45-70	-2.5	L −27.5	134.5	U 115
Jan 14	@GW	W 84-79	+9.5	W +14.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 21	vsFOR	W 68-63	-4.5	W +0.5	135.5	U 131
Jan 24	vsVCU	L 69-75	+5.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 28	@GMU	L 52-60	+6.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 112
Jan 31	@RICH	W 79-54	+1.5	W +26.5	140.5	U 133
Feb 3	vsSLU	L 82-91	+8.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 173
Feb 6	vsLUC	W 84-64	-9.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 148
Feb 15	@DAY	L 59-70	+5.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 18	vsRICH	W 65-63	-5.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 21	@FOR	L 59-63	-1.5	L −5.5	131.5	U 122
Feb 25	@DUQ	W 67-56	+3.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 123
Mar 1	vsLAS	W 71-64	-10.5	L −3.5	133.5	O 135
Mar 4	vsJOES	L 67-70	-1.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 7	@SBU	W 68-63	+4.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 12	vsLUC	W 64-59	-5.5	L −0.5	132.5	U 123
Mar 13	vsJOES	L 58-70	+2.5	L −9.5	133.5	U 128
Mar 17	@OKST	L 80-84	+6.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+11.5

CLT

W 62-55

+8.5

BGSU

W 91-87

−0.5

W 59-49

+11.5

USU

L 60-94

−24.5

NCAT

W 90-74

+2.5

CIT

W 79-63

−2.5

SMC

L 61-70

−0.5

MERC

W 80-47

+21.5

TEM

L 63-68

−10.5

L 61-90

−14.5

DUQ

L 83-89

−8.5

JOES

W 62-56

+4.5

LUC

W 79-64

+13.5

URI

L 45-70

−27.5

W 84-79

+14.5

FOR

W 68-63

+0.5

VCU

L 69-75

−0.5

GMU

L 52-60

−1.5

RICH

W 79-54

+26.5

SLU

L 82-91

−0.5

LUC

W 84-64

+10.5

DAY

L 59-70

−5.5

RICH

W 65-63

−3.5

FOR

L 59-63

−5.5

DUQ

W 67-56

+14.5

LAS

W 71-64

−3.5

JOES

L 67-70

−4.5

SBU

W 68-63

+9.5

LUC

W 64-59

−0.5

JOES

L 58-70

−9.5

OKST

L 80-84

+2.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+0.5

CLT

W 62-55

−26.5

BGSU

W 91-87

+33.5

W 59-49

−32.5

USU

L 60-94

+6.5

NCAT

W 90-74

+18.5

CIT

W 79-63

+4.5

SMC

L 61-70

−6.5

MERC

W 80-47

−5.5

TEM

L 63-68

−10.5

L 61-90

+11.5

DUQ

L 83-89

+21.5

JOES

W 62-56

−21.5

LUC

W 79-64

+6.5

URI

L 45-70

−19.5

W 84-79

+12.5

FOR

W 68-63

−4.5

VCU

L 69-75

−4.5

GMU

L 52-60

−22.5

RICH

W 79-54

−7.5

SLU

L 82-91

+21.5

LUC

W 84-64

+7.5

DAY

L 59-70

−11.5

RICH

W 65-63

−13.5

FOR

L 59-63

−9.5

DUQ

W 67-56

−19.5

LAS

W 71-64

+1.5

JOES

L 67-70

+0.5

SBU

W 68-63

−10.5

LUC

W 64-59

−9.5

JOES

L 58-70

−5.5

OKST

L 80-84

+9.5

over 14under 18avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Davidson has the better starters

Position by position: Northern Iowa 1, Davidson 3, even 1

Northern IowaBetterDavidson

G T. McCubbin TR9.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 21

DAVBig

G N. Janowski TR16.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81

G G. Uelmen TR17.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

UNIBig

G S. Brown7.9 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 33

G C. Vis TR5.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51

Even

G N. Coval6.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49

F I. Johnson-Arigu TR10.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 67

DAVSmall

F J. Scovens11.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

F I. Smikle TR2.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14

DAVSmall

C I. Platteeuw3.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 43

Northern IowaBetterDavidson

UNI offense204th of 366 · -6.3

DAVSmall

DAV defense84th of 366 · +0.0

UNI defense92nd of 366 · -0.3

UNISmall

DAV offense149th of 366 · -4.5

Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players

DAVSmall

Frontcourt+2.2 · 2 players

Bench-1.6 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestUNI betterDAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Northern Iowa

Guards

T. McCubbin30 min · TRG. Uelmen29 min · TRC. Vis15 min · TRG. Hutchins7 minR. BornNewC. CourbatNew

Forwards

I. Johnson-Arigu22 min · TRI. Smikle14 min · TRK. Pock12 minJ. WilsonNewJ. IsebaertNewW. GerdesNew

Davidson

Guards

N. Janowski32 min · TRS. Brown24 minN. Coval19 minP. Kavu1 minJ. CarterNewE. HeinonenNew

Forwards

J. Scovens25 minJ. Roberts12 minJ. Keith9 min · TRJ. Nowland1 minQ. BashiruNewT. StoiberNew

Centers

I. Platteeuw15 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNI68.6 #303

DAV69.9 #289

Points per possession

UNI1.08 #198

DAV1.08 #189

Pace (possessions)

UNI63.9 #361

DAV65.0 #347

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNI53.8 #73

DAV52.6 #121

3-point %

UNI34.7 #136

DAV35.4 #92

3-point attempt rate

UNI39.1 #189

DAV44.5 #79

Free throw rate

UNI25.6 #362

DAV31.0 #283

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNI14.5 #41

DAV15.8 #124

Offensive rebound rate

UNI21.8 #357

DAV28.1 #265

Assists per game

UNI14.6 #114

DAV13.4 #184

Defense

Points allowed

UNI62.5 #2

DAV68.5 #40

Points allowed per possession

UNI0.98 #12

DAV1.05 #94

Opponent effective FG%

UNI47.5 #31

DAV50.6 #132

Opponent 3-point %

UNI29.1 #3

DAV32.6 #92

Turnovers forced

UNI18.0 #97

DAV17.5 #121

Defensive rebound rate

UNI73.5 #24

DAV70.0 #157

Steals per game

UNI6.2 #212

DAV6.4 #189

Blocks per game

UNI3.1 #211

DAV4.1 #66

UNI		DAV
Scoring
68.6 #303	Points per game	69.9 #289
1.08 #198	Points per possession	1.08 #189
63.9 #361	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #347
Shooting
53.8 #73	Effective FG%	52.6 #121
34.7 #136	3-point %	35.4 #92
39.1 #189	3-point attempt rate	44.5 #79
25.6 #362	Free throw rate	31.0 #283
Possessions
14.5 #41	Turnover rate	15.8 #124
21.8 #357	Offensive rebound rate	28.1 #265
14.6 #114	Assists per game	13.4 #184
Defense
62.5 #2	Points allowed	68.5 #40
0.98 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #94
47.5 #31	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #132
29.1 #3	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #92
18.0 #97	Turnovers forced	17.5 #121
73.5 #24	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #157
6.2 #212	Steals per game	6.4 #189
3.1 #211	Blocks per game	4.1 #66

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Northern Iowa

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs St John's53–79
Wvs UIC84–69
Wvs Bradley73–69
Wvs Illinois St74–52
Wvs Evansville68–59

A week or more of rest.

Davidson

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Oklahoma St80–84
Lvs Saint Joseph's58–70
Wvs Loyola Chicago64–59
W@ St Bonaventure68–63
Lvs Saint Joseph's67–70

A week or more of rest.

Northern Iowa Panthers vs Davidson Wildcats

What could decide it: UNI has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Northern Iowa

Davidson

Davidson has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Northern Iowa

Davidson