St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs App State Mountaineers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 23, 11:00 AM ETState Farm Field House · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: St Bonaventure and App State
SBU	This season	APP
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SBU 73–67 · win probability SBU 71%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SBU 2, APP 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SBUBig

APP offense vs SBU defense

Offense 328th of 366 against a defense 131st, on the model’s ratings

APPBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SBU 30.0, APP 39.1. Allowed: SBU 33.9, APP 31.2

Context

Schedule so far

SBU has played the 109th-hardest schedule, APP the 252nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

APPSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SBU 52.4 and allows 53.3; APP 49.9 and allows 47.5

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: SBU plays 68.0 a game (228th fastest), APP 64.3 (358th). Faster games mean more points

SBUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SBU 16.8%, APP 15.3%. Forced: SBU 17.1%, APP 14.0%

Even

Three-pointers

SBU hits 37.4% and allows 36.0%; APP hits 30.4% and allows 32.2%. Threes are 31.3% and 45.9% of their shots

Even

SBU offense vs APP defense

Offense 169th of 366 against a defense 148th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SBU 18%, APP 25%. Transfers in: SBU 3, APP 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SBU 34.5%, APP 32.0%. Defensive: SBU 70.2%, APP 71.0%

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SBU -6.3	—
Total	—	139.3	—
Projected score	—	SBU 72.8 · APP 66.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SBU -3.9	—
1H total	65.2	—
1H projected score	SBU 34.5 · APP 30.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SBU LLWWW	13-20	39%	4-3	—
APP LLWLL	17-13	57%	1-2	—

Venue/role: SBU neutral site; APP neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SBU OUOUU	19-14	58%	16-17
APP UOOUO	12-18	40%	17-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SBU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
APP	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

St Bonaventure

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs WRST	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs BEL	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs FAU	W70–65WU

App State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs YALE	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs AKR	W57–45WU
Nov 29	vs DART	W85–77WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Bonaventure

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W W W W W L W W W W L W L L L L L W L W L L W L L L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-2039%

W L L L W L L W W L L L W L L L L W L W L W W L L L W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1458%

U O O O U O U U O O O O O O O U O O U O O U U U U O O U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRAD	W 69-63	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCAN	W 89-70	-21.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsSIE	W 75-66	-9.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 15	vsYSU	W 84-80	-9.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 20	vsRMU	W 75-61	-11.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsUNC	L 70-85	+10.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 27	vsECU	W 67-58	-10.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 125
Nov 30	@FAU	W 70-65	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 135
Dec 6	@BUF	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 10	vsCOLG	W 85-77	-9.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 162
Dec 13	vsOHIO	L 83-88	-6.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 171
Dec 20	vsLEM	W 92-81	-21.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 173
Dec 31	@VCU	L 82-89	+9.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 7	vsRICH	L 80-89	-6.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsFOR	L 77-81	-8.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 14	@JOES	L 64-68	-1.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 132
Jan 17	@LAS	L 74-78	-5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 20	vsLUC	W 84-70	-10.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 23	vsSLU	L 62-97	+8.5	L −26.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 28	@DUQ	W 87-79	+3.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 166
Jan 31	vsGMU	L 73-77	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 150
Feb 3	@DAY	L 70-72	+7.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 7	@FOR	W 70-67	-1.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 14	vsDUQ	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 151
Feb 18	vsJOES	L 65-71	-5.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136
Feb 21	@RICH	L 94-99	+1.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 193
Feb 26	vsURI	W 94-76	-2.5	W +15.5	144.5	O 170
Feb 28	@GMU	L 58-71	+3.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 129
Mar 4	@GW	L 82-91	+7.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 7	vsDAV	L 63-68	-4.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 11	vsLAS	W 99-80	-7.5	W +11.5	146.5	O 179
Mar 12	vsGMU	W 63-57	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 120
Mar 13	vsDAY	L 63-68	+5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

+4.5

CAN

W 89-70

−2.5

SIE

W 75-66

−0.5

YSU

W 84-80

−5.5

RMU

W 75-61

+2.5

UNC

L 70-85

−4.5

ECU

W 67-58

−1.5

FAU

W 70-65

+6.5

BUF

W 77-69

+2.5

COLG

W 85-77

−1.5

OHIO

L 83-88

−11.5

LEM

W 92-81

−10.5

VCU

L 82-89

+2.5

RICH

L 80-89

−15.5

FOR

L 77-81

−12.5

JOES

L 64-68

−5.5

LAS

L 74-78

−9.5

LUC

W 84-70

+3.5

SLU

L 62-97

−26.5

DUQ

W 87-79

+11.5

GMU

L 73-77

−2.5

DAY

L 70-72

+5.5

FOR

W 70-67

+1.5

DUQ

L 73-78

−6.5

JOES

L 65-71

−11.5

RICH

L 94-99

−3.5

URI

W 94-76

+15.5

GMU

L 58-71

−9.5

L 82-91

−1.5

DAV

L 63-68

−9.5

LAS

W 99-80

+11.5

GMU

W 63-57

+8.5

DAY

L 63-68

+0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

−7.5

CAN

W 89-70

+22.5

SIE

W 75-66

+0.5

YSU

W 84-80

+17.5

RMU

W 75-61

−10.5

UNC

L 70-85

+2.5

ECU

W 67-58

−19.5

FAU

W 70-65

−11.5

BUF

W 77-69

+1.5

COLG

W 85-77

+19.5

OHIO

L 83-88

+20.5

LEM

W 92-81

+21.5

VCU

L 82-89

+13.5

RICH

L 80-89

+15.5

FOR

L 77-81

+15.5

JOES

L 64-68

−15.5

LAS

L 74-78

+10.5

LUC

W 84-70

+6.5

SLU

L 62-97

−0.5

DUQ

W 87-79

+15.5

GMU

L 73-77

+7.5

DAY

L 70-72

−2.5

FOR

W 70-67

−4.5

DUQ

L 73-78

−1.5

JOES

L 65-71

−11.5

RICH

L 94-99

+45.5

URI

W 94-76

+25.5

GMU

L 58-71

−17.5

L 82-91

+15.5

DAV

L 63-68

−10.5

LAS

W 99-80

+32.5

GMU

W 63-57

−23.5

DAY

L 63-68

−10.5

over 19under 14avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

App State

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-18

40% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L W L W W L L L W W W L W L W L W L W W W W W W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1357%

L W W W W L L L W W W L W W W L W L W L W W W L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-1840%

O U U O U U U U U O U U O O U U O O O U U U U U O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CMU	L 66-82	+1.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 9	vsNCCU	W 76-54	-10.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 130
Nov 11	@OSU	L 53-75	+23.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 128
Nov 16	@DART	W 85-77	-1.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsCLT	W 65-63	-1.5	W +0.5	132.5	U 128
Nov 24	vsELON	L 53-88	-5.5	L −40.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 26	@MER	L 67-75	+6.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 30	vsUNCA	L 55-67	+1.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 11	@ECU	W 67-54	+4.5	W +17.5	130.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsHPU	W 86-78	+12.5	W +20.5	144.5	O 164
Dec 18	vsCCU	W 67-49	-4.5	W +13.5	137.5	U 116
Dec 20	vsGAST	L 63-70	-7.5	L −14.5	137.5	U 133
Dec 31	@ODU	W 81-73	+1.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 154
Jan 3	@MRSH	L 81-88	+7.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 169
Jan 8	@GAST	W 52-50	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 10	@CCU	L 62-67	-1.5	L −6.5	133.5	U 129
Jan 15	vsJMU	W 80-65	-2.5	W +12.5	133.5	O 145
Jan 17	vsODU	L 73-75	-7.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 22	vsUL	W 72-58	-9.5	W +4.5	124.5	O 130
Jan 23	vsULM	W 59-43	-16.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 102
Jan 29	@USM	W 70-63	-1.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 133
Jan 31	@TROY	W 66-44	+7.5	W +29.5	137.5	U 110
Feb 4	vsUSA	W 65-57	-5.5	W +2.5	131.5	U 122
Feb 7	vsEMU	W 65-60	-7.5	L −2.5	131.5	U 125
Feb 11	@GASO	W 81-65	-1.5	W +14.5	143.5	O 146
Feb 14	@JMU	L 58-69	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	U 127
Feb 19	vsMRSH	L 93-94	-3.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 187
Feb 21	vsGASO	W 89-74	-7.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 163
Feb 27	@TXST	L 57-60	-1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 117
Mar 7	vsUSM	L 73-86	-4.5	L −17.5	137.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CMU

L 66-82

−14.5

NCCU

W 76-54

+11.5

OSU

L 53-75

+1.5

DART

W 85-77

+6.5

CLT

W 65-63

+0.5

ELON

L 53-88

−40.5

MER

L 67-75

−1.5

UNCA

L 55-67

−10.5

ECU

W 67-54

+17.5

HPU

W 86-78

+20.5

CCU

W 67-49

+13.5

GAST

L 63-70

−14.5

ODU

W 81-73

+9.5

MRSH

L 81-88

+0.5

GAST

W 52-50

+0.5

CCU

L 62-67

−6.5

JMU

W 80-65

+12.5

ODU

L 73-75

−9.5

W 72-58

+4.5

ULM

W 59-43

−0.5

USM

W 70-63

+5.5

TROY

W 66-44

+29.5

USA

W 65-57

+2.5

EMU

W 65-60

−2.5

GASO

W 81-65

+14.5

JMU

L 58-69

−12.5

MRSH

L 93-94

−4.5

GASO

W 89-74

+7.5

TXST

L 57-60

−4.5

USM

L 73-86

−17.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CMU

L 66-82

+5.5

NCCU

W 76-54

−6.5

OSU

L 53-75

−19.5

DART

W 85-77

+21.5

CLT

W 65-63

−4.5

ELON

L 53-88

−2.5

MER

L 67-75

−0.5

UNCA

L 55-67

−15.5

ECU

W 67-54

−9.5

HPU

W 86-78

+19.5

CCU

W 67-49

−21.5

GAST

L 63-70

−4.5

ODU

W 81-73

+17.5

MRSH

L 81-88

+27.5

GAST

W 52-50

−38.5

CCU

L 62-67

−4.5

JMU

W 80-65

+11.5

ODU

L 73-75

+7.5

W 72-58

+5.5

ULM

W 59-43

−42.5

USM

W 70-63

−1.5

TROY

W 66-44

−27.5

USA

W 65-57

−9.5

EMU

W 65-60

−6.5

GASO

W 81-65

+2.5

JMU

L 58-69

−7.5

MRSH

L 93-94

+43.5

GASO

W 89-74

+15.5

TXST

L 57-60

−18.5

USM

L 73-86

+21.5

over 12under 18avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St Bonaventure has the better starters

Position by position: St Bonaventure 2, App State 0, even 3

St BonaventureBetterApp State

G A. Fulton TR10.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

SBUSmall

G H. Koffi TR12.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30

G I. Ermakov2.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G E. Banks6.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15

F R. Kalambay TR4.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

SBUSmall

F C. Moodie2.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 15

F J. Grahovac4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33

Even

F A. Njock2.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 37

F M. Blackwood TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.2 ast Score 22

No call

C R. Elezaj TR0 pts · 0.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

St BonaventureBetterApp State

SBU offense169th of 366 · -5.2

Even

APP defense148th of 366 · -3.2

SBU defense131st of 366 · -2.4

SBUBig

APP offense328th of 366 · -10.6

Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players

SBUBig

Backcourt-5.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.4 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players

Bench-0.6 · 2 players

Even

Bench+0.0 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestSBU betterAPP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

St Bonaventure

Guards

A. Fulton29 min · TRI. Ermakov10 minA. Lonati8 minJ. DeRose1 minR. HeathNewZ. PhilipkoskiNew

Forwards

R. Kalambay21 min · TRJ. Grahovac18 minM. Blackwood12 min · TRJ. IkpotokinNewC. BlankenbergNew

Centers

B. BillNewC. DialloNew

App State

Guards

H. Koffi36 min · TRE. Banks26 minC. O'Kelley1 minL. LedfordNewB. KopetzkiNewJ. ColonNew

Forwards

C. Moodie12 minA. Njock11 minD. LytchNewG. ClaytonNewT. NealNew

Centers

R. Elezaj1 min · TRB. ChretienNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SBU76.2 #138

APP69.3 #295

Points per possession

SBU1.12 #104

APP1.08 #187

Pace (possessions)

SBU68.0 #228

APP64.3 #358

Shooting

Effective FG%

SBU52.4 #129

APP49.9 #240

3-point %

SBU37.4 #22

APP30.4 #335

3-point attempt rate

SBU31.3 #335

APP45.9 #48

Free throw rate

SBU30.0 #310

APP39.1 #77

Possessions

Turnover rate

SBU16.8 #189

APP15.3 #87

Offensive rebound rate

SBU34.5 #60

APP32.0 #123

Assists per game

SBU15.4 #73

APP11.4 #318

Defense

Points allowed

SBU75.4 #201

APP67.4 #25

Points allowed per possession

SBU1.11 #245

APP1.05 #87

Opponent effective FG%

SBU53.3 #278

APP47.5 #33

Opponent 3-point %

SBU36.0 #299

APP32.2 #71

Turnovers forced

SBU17.1 #144

APP14.0 #336

Defensive rebound rate

SBU70.2 #150

APP71.0 #106

Steals per game

SBU7.5 #80

APP4.6 #351

Blocks per game

SBU4.4 #41

APP3.4 #155

SBU		APP
Scoring
76.2 #138	Points per game	69.3 #295
1.12 #104	Points per possession	1.08 #187
68.0 #228	Pace (possessions)	64.3 #358
Shooting
52.4 #129	Effective FG%	49.9 #240
37.4 #22	3-point %	30.4 #335
31.3 #335	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #48
30.0 #310	Free throw rate	39.1 #77
Possessions
16.8 #189	Turnover rate	15.3 #87
34.5 #60	Offensive rebound rate	32.0 #123
15.4 #73	Assists per game	11.4 #318
Defense
75.4 #201	Points allowed	67.4 #25
1.11 #245	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #87
53.3 #278	Opponent effective FG%	47.5 #33
36.0 #299	Opponent 3-point %	32.2 #71
17.1 #144	Turnovers forced	14.0 #336
70.2 #150	Defensive rebound rate	71.0 #106
7.5 #80	Steals per game	4.6 #351
4.4 #41	Blocks per game	3.4 #155

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

St Bonaventure

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Dayton63–68
Wvs George Mason63–57
Wvs La Salle99–80
Lvs Davidson63–68
L@ G Washington82–91

A week or more of rest.

App State

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern Miss73–86
L@ Texas St57–60
Wvs GA Southern89–74
Lvs Marshall93–94
L@ James Madison58–69

A week or more of rest.

St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs App State Mountaineers

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

St Bonaventure

App State

St Bonaventure has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

St Bonaventure

App State