1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. APP vs YALE
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

App State Mountaineers vs Yale Bulldogs

State Farm Field House · Neutral site
#248APPApp State
vs
#126YALEYale
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
APPThis seasonYALE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects YALE 75–67 · win probability YALE 76%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 141.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: YALE has more of the edges

APP 0, YALE 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
YALEBig
APP offense vs YALE defense
Offense 328th of 366 against a defense 136th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
APP has played the 252nd-hardest schedule, YALE the 141st. A record against a soft schedule means less
YALESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: APP 15.3%, YALE 14.0%. Forced: APP 14.0%, YALE 16.2%
YALESmall
Three-pointers
APP hits 30.4% and allows 32.2%; YALE hits 39.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 45.9% and 36.1% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: APP 25%, YALE 42%. Transfers in: APP 2, YALE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 65 possessions: APP plays 64.3 a game (358th fastest), YALE 66.4 (301st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: APP 49.9 and allows 47.5; YALE 55.6 and allows 51.6
Even
YALE offense vs APP defense
Offense 125th of 366 against a defense 148th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: APP 39.1, YALE 35.1. Allowed: APP 31.2, YALE 26.8
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: APP 32.0%, YALE 34.2%. Defensive: APP 71.0%, YALE 70.3%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—YALE -8.0—
Total—141.0—
Projected score—APP 66.5 · YALE 74.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadYALE -4.6—
1H total66.0—
1H projected scoreAPP 30.7 · YALE 35.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Yale has the better starters

Position by position: App State 0, Yale 3, even 2
App StateBetterYale
G H. Koffi TR12.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30
YALESmall
G T. Mullin11.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 63
G E. Banks6.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15
YALESmall
G J. Brathwaite6.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 35
F C. Moodie2.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 15
No call
G C. Wallace1.2 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
F A. Njock2.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 37
YALEBig
F R. Fox9.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 76
C R. Elezaj TR0 pts · 0.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Sullivan1.3 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
App StateBetterYale
APP offense328th of 366 · -10.6
YALEBig
YALE defense136th of 366 · -2.8
APP defense148th of 366 · -3.2
Even
YALE offense125th of 366 · -3.3
Backcourt-5.2 · 2 players
YALEBig
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players
YALESmall
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Bench+0.0 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestAPP betterYALE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
App State
Guards
H. Koffi36 min · TRE. Banks26 minC. O'Kelley1 minL. LedfordNewB. KopetzkiNewJ. ColonNew
Forwards
C. Moodie12 minA. Njock11 minD. LytchNewG. ClaytonNewT. NealNew
Centers
R. Elezaj1 min · TRB. ChretienNew
Yale
Guards
T. Mullin28 minJ. Brathwaite19 minC. Wallace4 minJ. Basima3 minA. Loving3 minJ. Tsai2 min
Forwards
R. Fox18 minJ. Sullivan5 minD. Ogunyemi3 minC. MayNewT. WinklerNewC. BolteNew
Centers
J. OwareNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
APPYALE
Scoring
69.3 #295Points per game80.1 #64
1.08 #187Points per possession1.21 #10
64.3 #358Pace (possessions)66.4 #301
Shooting
49.9 #240Effective FG%55.6 #26
30.4 #3353-point %39.4 #3
45.9 #483-point attempt rate36.1 #247
39.1 #77Free throw rate35.1 #172
Possessions
15.3 #87Turnover rate14.0 #22
32.0 #123Offensive rebound rate34.2 #62
11.4 #318Assists per game15.8 #53
Defense
67.4 #25Points allowed71.8 #102
1.05 #87Points allowed per possession1.08 #166
47.5 #33Opponent effective FG%51.6 #192
32.2 #71Opponent 3-point %35.0 #250
14.0 #336Turnovers forced16.2 #207
71.0 #106Defensive rebound rate70.3 #147
4.6 #351Steals per game5.3 #314
3.4 #155Blocks per game3.2 #193
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

App State

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss73–86
  • L@ Texas St57–60
  • Wvs GA Southern89–74
  • Lvs Marshall93–94
  • L@ James Madison58–69

A week or more of rest.

Yale

22-7 in 2025-26 overall · 12-4 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Wilmington67–68
  • Lvs Penn84–88
  • Wvs Cornell88–76
  • Wvs Princeton78–53
  • W@ Columbia60–54

A week or more of rest.