1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. UND vs DETM
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs Detroit Mercy Titans

Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya · Neutral site
#336UNDNorth Dakota
vs
#277DETMDetroit Mercy
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNDThis seasonDETM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DETM 78–74 · win probability DETM 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DETM has more of the edges

UND 1, DETM 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNDBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UND 14.1%, DETM 16.0%. Forced: UND 19.3%, DETM 14.4%
DETMBig
Three-pointers
UND hits 32.7% and allows 37.1%; DETM hits 35.1% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 40.6% and 30.7% of their shots
DETMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UND 27.4%, DETM 33.3%. Defensive: UND 67.6%, DETM 69.2%
DETMBig
DETM offense vs UND defense
Offense 236th of 366 against a defense 353rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UND has played the 293rd-hardest schedule, DETM the 208th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETMSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UND 49.5 and allows 56.5; DETM 49.5 and allows 52.2
DETMSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UND 24%, DETM 49%. Transfers in: UND 2, DETM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UND 37.9, DETM 32.6. Allowed: UND 43.8, DETM 37.6
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
UND offense vs DETM defense
Offense 304th of 366 against a defense 310th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UND plays 69.7 a game (133rd fastest), DETM 69.7 (132nd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DETM -4.2—
Total—152.0—
Projected score—UND 73.9 · DETM 78.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDETM -2.4—
1H total71.1—
1H projected scoreUND 34.3 · DETM 36.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Detroit Mercy has the better starters

Position by position: North Dakota 0, Detroit Mercy 1, even 4
North DakotaBetterDetroit Mercy
G Z. Kraft7.7 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 23
DETMSmall
G T. Spratt10.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 54
G S. Hincapie TR4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11
No call
G A. Carter11.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked
G T. Wagner TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G L. Stone6.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 9
F K. Ouse0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F L. Maiden6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 28
C J. Jones2.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 1
No call
C X. Istomin-Monroe1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
North DakotaBetterDetroit Mercy
UND offense304th of 366 · -9.5
Even
DETM defense310th of 366 · -8.1
UND defense353rd of 366 · -9.9
DETMSmall
DETM offense236th of 366 · -7.2
Backcourt-4.8 · 3 players
DETMSmall
Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-4.5 · 2 players
DETMSmall
Frontcourt-1.9 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.7 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestUND betterDETM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Dakota
Guards
Z. Kraft25 minS. Hincapie16 min · TRT. Wagner7 min · TRL. WinkelNewZ. ParksNewJ. MooreNew
Forwards
K. Ouse6 minA. RadojevicNewJ. ThomasNewD. ElyNew
Centers
J. Jones19 min
Detroit Mercy
Guards
T. Spratt25 minA. Carter21 minL. Stone21 minJ. Cotton7 minJ. BriggsNewE. PalssonNew
Forwards
L. Maiden16 minD. FavorNewV. SemerychNewC. HouserNewT. OwensNew
Centers
X. Istomin-Monroe8 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNDDETM
Scoring
74.2 #187Points per game76.3 #135
1.07 #214Points per possession1.09 #153
69.7 #133Pace (possessions)69.7 #132
Shooting
49.5 #272Effective FG%49.5 #267
32.7 #2463-point %35.1 #108
40.6 #1553-point attempt rate30.7 #343
37.9 #106Free throw rate32.6 #247
Possessions
14.1 #27Turnover rate16.0 #138
27.4 #284Offensive rebound rate33.3 #81
10.8 #343Assists per game13.1 #208
Defense
79.6 #310Points allowed78.7 #285
1.14 #306Points allowed per possession1.13 #290
56.5 #353Opponent effective FG%52.2 #223
37.1 #345Opponent 3-point %33.3 #140
19.3 #36Turnovers forced14.4 #324
67.6 #276Defensive rebound rate69.2 #193
7.9 #49Steals per game5.8 #264
2.5 #307Blocks per game3.3 #182
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Dakota

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Dakota St62–70
  • Wvs St Thomas67–66
  • Wvs Denver83–67
  • L@ N Dakota St63–96
  • L@ S Dakota St83–91

A week or more of rest.

Detroit Mercy

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wright St63–66
  • Wvs Robert Morris70–64
  • Wvs Milwaukee84–63
  • W@ Oakland95–89
  • L@ Robert Morris62–73

A week or more of rest.