1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. LBSU vs ARST
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Long Beach State Beach vs Arkansas State Red Wolves

Ocean Bank Convocation Center · Neutral site
#297LBSULong Beach St
vs
#171ARSTArkansas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LBSUThis seasonARST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARST 80–74 · win probability ARST 69%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARST has more of the edges

LBSU 1, ARST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARSTBig
ARST offense vs LBSU defense
Offense 122nd of 366 against a defense 300th, on the model’s ratings
ARSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LBSU 26.2%, ARST 38.2%. Defensive: LBSU 72.2%, ARST 73.0%
ARSTBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LBSU 30.7, ARST 39.1. Allowed: LBSU 42.3, ARST 37.0
LBSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LBSU 18.0%, ARST 19.8%. Forced: LBSU 17.5%, ARST 14.9%
ARSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: LBSU 50.6 and allows 53.7; ARST 51.7 and allows 50.3
Context
Schedule so far
LBSU has played the 152nd-hardest schedule, ARST the 221st. A record against a soft schedule means less
ARSTSmall
Three-pointers
LBSU hits 32.7% and allows 34.4%; ARST hits 32.9% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 34.8% and 44.9% of their shots
Even
LBSU offense vs ARST defense
Offense 285th of 366 against a defense 252nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: LBSU plays 71.7 a game (46th fastest), ARST 73.4 (16th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LBSU 8%, ARST 6%. Transfers in: LBSU 5, ARST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARST -5.7—
Total—154.3—
Projected score—LBSU 74.3 · ARST 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARST -3.3—
1H total72.1—
1H projected scoreLBSU 34.4 · ARST 37.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas St has the better starters

Position by position: Long Beach St 0, Arkansas St 1, even 4
Long Beach StBetterArkansas St
G J. Payne TR6.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 40
ARSTBig
G J. Pyke TR12.3 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 83
G Y. Sissoko TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 32
Even
G L. Taylor TR8 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.2 ast Score 45
G C. Jones3.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Blue Smith4.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 33
F G. Brcic TR4.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 39
Even
F A. Doumbia TR3.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.2 ast Score 36
C N. Amenhauser TR5.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 57
No call
F D. Muon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
Long Beach StBetterArkansas St
LBSU offense285th of 366 · -8.8
Even
ARST defense252nd of 366 · -6.6
LBSU defense300th of 366 · -7.7
ARSTBig
ARST offense122nd of 366 · -3.2
Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players
ARSTSmall
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.3 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
Bench-1.9 · 2 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestLBSU betterARST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Long Beach St
Guards
J. Payne22 min · TRY. Sissoko11 min · TRC. Jones10 minJ. TenganNewJ. GrayNewM. AdamsNew
Forwards
G. Brcic17 min · TRK. Smith8 min · TRJ. Chaikovsky6 minB. WrightNewH. LauNewM. VanlaninghamNew
Centers
N. Amenhauser12 min · TR
Arkansas St
Guards
J. Pyke26 min · TRL. Taylor25 min · TRR. Blue Smith13 minC. WatsonNewT. FergusonNewC. GeathersNew
Forwards
A. Doumbia14 min · TRD. MuonNewG. BennettNewA. MaigaNewR. OmedNewM. SyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LBSUARST
Scoring
73.2 #219Points per game81.8 #33
1.02 #303Points per possession1.11 #117
71.7 #46Pace (possessions)73.4 #16
Shooting
50.6 #207Effective FG%51.7 #164
32.7 #2453-point %32.9 #240
34.8 #2803-point attempt rate44.9 #70
30.7 #287Free throw rate39.1 #78
Possessions
18.0 #271Turnover rate19.8 #344
26.2 #315Offensive rebound rate38.2 #6
12.3 #264Assists per game15.3 #77
Defense
79.0 #297Points allowed78.0 #268
1.10 #220Points allowed per possession1.07 #121
53.7 #290Opponent effective FG%50.3 #117
34.4 #212Opponent 3-point %32.9 #115
17.5 #119Turnovers forced14.9 #298
72.2 #60Defensive rebound rate73.0 #36
6.5 #173Steals per game7.2 #110
2.9 #250Blocks per game2.8 #268
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Long Beach St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • W@ Hawai'i84–75
  • Lvs UC Davis70–76
  • W@ Bakersfield88–87
  • L@ Cal Poly92–102
  • Lvs CSU Northridge76–78

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas St

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern77–80
  • Wvs Louisiana81–58
  • Wvs Southern Miss89–84
  • W@ UL Monroe102–94
  • W@ Louisiana79–62

A week or more of rest.