1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. TLSA vs ILST
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Illinois State Redbirds

Acrisure Arena · Neutral site
#108TLSATulsa
vs
#116ILSTIllinois St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TLSAThis seasonILST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TLSA 75–74 · win probability TLSA 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TLSA has more of the edges

TLSA 2, ILST 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TLSABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: TLSA 41.4, ILST 31.6. Allowed: TLSA 32.0, ILST 32.3
TLSASmall
Three-pointers
TLSA hits 38.5% and allows 32.4%; ILST hits 34.9% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 46.7% and 43.3% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: TLSA plays 70.1 a game (115th fastest), ILST 67.7 (241st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TLSA 32.8%, ILST 28.0%. Defensive: TLSA 71.0%, ILST 74.6%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TLSA 18%, ILST 37%. Transfers in: TLSA 7, ILST 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: TLSA 55.4 and allows 49.5; ILST 53.6 and allows 49.8
Context
Schedule so far
TLSA has played the 111th-hardest schedule, ILST the 135th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TLSA 15.6%, ILST 16.8%. Forced: TLSA 15.4%, ILST 16.0%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
TLSA offense vs ILST defense
Offense 99th of 366 against a defense 102nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
ILST offense vs TLSA defense
Offense 133rd of 366 against a defense 133rd, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TLSA -1.1—
Total—148.8—
Projected score—TLSA 75 · ILST 73.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTLSA -0.8—
1H total69.6—
1H projected scoreTLSA 35.2 · ILST 34.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Tulsa has the better starters

Position by position: Tulsa 2, Illinois St 0, even 3
TulsaBetterIllinois St
G K. Williams TR14.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 46
Even
G M. Messina-Moore TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 57
G J. Johnson TR15 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 69
TLSASmall
G J. Kinziger11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 51
G B. Moss TR9.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 54
TLSASmall
G D. Garang TR10.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30
F M. Emory TR11.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 27
Even
G Z. King TR7.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 24
F C. Loofe TR7.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 26
Even
G D. Burch TR9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
TulsaBetterIllinois St
TLSA offense99th of 366 · -0.8
Even
ILST defense102nd of 366 · -0.9
TLSA defense133rd of 366 · -2.5
Even
ILST offense133rd of 366 · -3.9
Backcourt-0.9 · 3 players
TLSABig
Backcourt-6.6 · 5 players
Frontcourt-3.8 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench+1.3 · 5 players
ILSTSmall
Bench+3.4 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestTLSA betterILST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Tulsa
Guards
K. Williams36 min · TRJ. Johnson33 min · TRB. Moss27 min · TRM. Williams21 min · TRM. Rigsby19 minJ. Lawal13 min
Forwards
M. Emory37 min · TRC. Loofe26 min · TRK. Banks16 min · TRD. DesireNewA. DimitrijevicNew
Illinois St
Guards
M. Messina-Moore33 min · TRJ. Kinziger33 minD. Garang30 min · TRZ. King27 min · TRD. Burch23 min · TRM. Klabo16 min
Forwards
C. Walker23 minL. Semona6 min · TRN. ClevelandNewN. AllenNewL. WolfNewM. SzafoniNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TLSAILST
Scoring
83.9 #20Points per game74.1 #191
1.20 #16Points per possession1.09 #151
70.1 #115Pace (possessions)67.7 #241
Shooting
55.4 #29Effective FG%53.6 #77
38.5 #103-point %34.9 #126
46.7 #373-point attempt rate43.3 #106
41.4 #39Free throw rate31.6 #266
Possessions
15.6 #109Turnover rate16.8 #193
32.8 #95Offensive rebound rate28.0 #268
15.1 #79Assists per game13.5 #179
Defense
74.4 #172Points allowed69.1 #49
1.06 #111Points allowed per possession1.02 #48
49.5 #82Opponent effective FG%49.8 #90
32.4 #85Opponent 3-point %33.0 #122
15.4 #260Turnovers forced16.0 #221
71.0 #108Defensive rebound rate74.6 #13
6.6 #170Steals per game5.5 #294
2.5 #306Blocks per game2.3 #326
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tulsa

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Auburn86–92
  • Wvs New Mexico74–69
  • Wvs Wichita St83–79
  • Wvs UNLV77–66
  • Wvs SF Austin89–84

A week or more of rest.

Illinois St

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Auburn66–88
  • W@ Dayton61–55
  • W@ Wake Forest78–75
  • Wvs Kent State79–58
  • Lvs Northern Iowa52–74

A week or more of rest.