1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. MICH vs CREI
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Michigan Wolverines vs Creighton Bluejays

T-Mobile Arena · Neutral site
#8MICHMichigan AP #16
vs
#37CREICreighton
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MICHThis seasonCREI
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MICH 85–72 · win probability MICH 87%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MICH has more of the edges

MICH 4, CREI 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MICHBig
Three-pointers
MICH hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%; CREI hits 34.1% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 41.5% and 48.2% of their shots
MICHBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MICH 34.7%, CREI 26.9%. Defensive: MICH 71.8%, CREI 70.5%
MICHBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MICH 58.3 and allows 44.6; CREI 53.0 and allows 51.1
MICHBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MICH 38.0, CREI 28.3. Allowed: MICH 26.0, CREI 24.8
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MICH plays 71.7 a game (48th fastest), CREI 68.9 (187th). Faster games mean more points
Even
MICH offense vs CREI defense
Offense 5th of 366 against a defense 43rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MICH 16.3%, CREI 16.4%. Forced: MICH 15.2%, CREI 13.7%
Context
Schedule so far
MICH has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, CREI the 40th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MICH 38%, CREI 53%. Transfers in: MICH 4, CREI 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
CREI offense vs MICH defense
Offense 33rd of 366 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MICH -12.8—
Total—157.0—
Projected score—MICH 84.9 · CREI 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMICH -7.7—
1H total73.4—
1H projected scoreMICH 40.5 · CREI 32.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: Michigan 1, Creighton 0, even 4
MichiganBetterCreighton
G K. Noland TR17.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 87
Even
G B. Robinson TR17.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 6.7 ast Score 86
G E. Cadeau10.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.9 ast Score 87
MICHSmall
G W. Enis TR16.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72
G T. McKenney9.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 88
Even
F J. Green10.5 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 92
G R. Gayle7.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 76
Even
F O. Erhunmwunse TR6.9 pts · 8.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 74
C M. Thiam TR12.8 pts · 7.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 92
Even
C F. King TR13.1 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92
MichiganBetterCreighton
MICH offense5th of 366 · +10.9
Even
CREI defense43rd of 366 · +2.7
MICH defense10th of 366 · +7.4
Even
CREI offense33rd of 366 · +5.5
Backcourt+7.0 · 4 players
MICHBig
Backcourt+3.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
CREIBig
Frontcourt+8.6 · 3 players
Bench+5.5 · 4 players
Even
Bench+5.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMICH betterCREI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Michigan
Guards
K. Noland34 min · TRE. Cadeau27 minT. McKenney22 minR. Gayle21 minH. Eisley1 minR. LiburdNew
Forwards
J. Estrella18 min · TRJ. Reed18 min · TRO. Goodman5 minH. HochbergNewL. CosbyNewQ. CostelloNew
Centers
M. Thiam27 min · TRM. MollerNew
Creighton
Guards
B. Robinson36 min · TRW. Enis34 min · TRB. Davis23 min · TRA. Swartz22 minH. Greer14 minK. Edwards7 min · TR
Forwards
J. Green28 minO. Erhunmwunse25 min · TRJ. McAndrew21 minI. Traudt19 minT. Carter-GivensNew
Centers
F. King25 min · TRW. RosaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MICHCREI
Scoring
87.3 #4Points per game75.2 #159
1.21 #8Points per possession1.09 #156
71.7 #48Pace (possessions)68.9 #187
Shooting
58.3 #8Effective FG%53.0 #103
36.8 #333-point %34.1 #167
41.5 #1413-point attempt rate48.2 #23
38.0 #102Free throw rate28.3 #340
Possessions
16.3 #157Turnover rate16.4 #161
34.7 #55Offensive rebound rate26.9 #301
18.6 #5Assists per game15.4 #72
Defense
69.5 #55Points allowed75.2 #196
0.97 #8Points allowed per possession1.09 #197
44.6 #1Opponent effective FG%51.1 #165
30.4 #18Opponent 3-point %35.1 #256
15.2 #270Turnovers forced13.7 #341
71.8 #70Defensive rebound rate70.5 #132
5.6 #286Steals per game5.7 #278
6.0 #2Blocks per game2.8 #255
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Michigan

37-3 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs UConn69–63
  • Wvs Arizona91–73
  • Wvs Tennessee95–62
  • Wvs Alabama90–77
  • Wvs Saint Louis95–72

A week or more of rest.

Creighton

16-18 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs West Virginia70–87
  • Wvs Rutgers82–69
  • Lvs Seton Hall61–72
  • W@ Butler76–59
  • Lvs Providence76–79

A week or more of rest.