San Diego State Aztecs vs Iowa State Cyclones: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 5:30 PM ETMichelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: San Diego St and Iowa State
SDSU	This season	ISU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ISU 81–67 · win probability ISU 90%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ISU has more of the edges

SDSU 0, ISU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ISUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SDSU 29.5%, ISU 35.1%. Defensive: SDSU 68.9%, ISU 71.4%

ISUBig

Three-pointers

SDSU hits 34.5% and allows 33.6%; ISU hits 38.3% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 33.8% and 38.8% of their shots

ISUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SDSU 17.2%, ISU 14.9%. Forced: SDSU 20.2%, ISU 22.6%

ISUSmall

SDSU offense vs ISU defense

Offense 86th of 366 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

ISUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SDSU 20%, ISU 57%. Transfers in: SDSU 4, ISU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

ISUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SDSU 39.0, ISU 34.5. Allowed: SDSU 38.5, ISU 28.1

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: SDSU plays 70.6 a game (89th fastest), ISU 68.5 (204th). Faster games mean more points

ISUSmall

ISU offense vs SDSU defense

Offense 26th of 366 against a defense 70th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SDSU has played the 80th-hardest schedule, ISU the 38th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SDSU 52.7 and allows 48.2; ISU 56.2 and allows 49.8

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ISU -14.4	—
Total	—	147.6	—
Projected score	—	SDSU 66.6 · ISU 81

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ISU -8.4	—
1H total	69.0	—
1H projected score	SDSU 30.3 · ISU 38.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SDSU LLWLL	15-17	47%	2-5	—
ISU WWWWL	22-15	59%	8-2	—

Venue/role: SDSU neutral site; ISU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU OOUUU	15-17	47%	21-11
ISU UOOUU	15-22	41%	29-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
ISU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

San Diego St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs UNLV	W89–86LO
Dec 11	vs MTST	No recent meeting

Iowa State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs ALCN	W132–68WO
Dec 5	vs PUR	W81–58WU
Dec 10	@ IOWA	W66–62LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

San Diego St

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

W W L L W L W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W L L W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W L L L W L W W L L W L W W W L L W W W L W W L L W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U U O U O O U O O U O O U U U O U O U U U O U U O O O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLBSU	W 77-45	-25.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 9	vsIDST	W 73-57	-21.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsTROY	L 107-108	-14.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 215
Nov 24	vsMICH	L 54-94	+6.5	L −33.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 25	vsORE	W 97-80	+2.5	W +19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsBAY	L 81-91	+2.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 172
Dec 3	vsUVU	W 77-66	-8.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 10	vsLAM	W 89-71	-17.5	W +0.5	135.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsAF	W 81-58	-24.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 139
Dec 20	vsARIZ	L 45-68	+13.5	L −9.5	153.5	U 113
Dec 30	@SJSU	W 81-68	-11.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsBOIS	W 110-107	-4.5	L −1.5	138.5	O 217
Jan 6	@NEV	W 73-68	+1.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsFRES	W 71-52	-14.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 123
Jan 14	@WYO	W 74-57	-1.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 17	vsUNM	W 83-79	-5.5	L −1.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 21	@GCU	L 69-70	-1.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 139
Jan 24	@UNLV	W 82-71	-3.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 153
Jan 28	vsCSU	W 73-50	-9.5	W +13.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 31	@USU	L 66-71	+6.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 3	vsWYO	W 72-63	-12.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 7	@AF	W 88-54	-22.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 142
Feb 14	vsNEV	W 71-57	-7.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 128
Feb 17	vsGCU	L 63-73	-7.5	L −17.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 21	@CSU	L 74-83	-3.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 157
Feb 25	vsUSU	W 89-72	+1.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 161
Feb 28	@UNM	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 157
Mar 3	@BOIS	L 77-86	+1.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 163
Mar 6	vsUNLV	W 89-86	-9.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 175
Mar 12	vsCSU	W 71-62	-6.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 13	vsUNM	W 64-62	-2.5	L −0.5	150.5	U 126
Mar 14	vsUSU	L 62-73	+2.5	L −8.5	145.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

+6.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

−15.5

MICH

L 54-94

−33.5

ORE

W 97-80

+19.5

BAY

L 81-91

−7.5

UVU

W 77-66

+2.5

LAM

W 89-71

+0.5

W 81-58

−1.5

ARIZ

L 45-68

−9.5

SJSU

W 81-68

+1.5

BOIS

W 110-107

−1.5

NEV

W 73-68

+6.5

FRES

W 71-52

+4.5

WYO

W 74-57

+15.5

UNM

W 83-79

−1.5

GCU

L 69-70

−2.5

UNLV

W 82-71

+7.5

CSU

W 73-50

+13.5

USU

L 66-71

+1.5

WYO

W 72-63

−3.5

W 88-54

+11.5

NEV

W 71-57

+6.5

GCU

L 63-73

−17.5

CSU

L 74-83

−12.5

USU

W 89-72

+18.5

UNM

L 76-81

−3.5

BOIS

L 77-86

−7.5

UNLV

W 89-86

−6.5

CSU

W 71-62

+2.5

UNM

W 64-62

−0.5

USU

L 62-73

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

−13.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

+77.5

MICH

L 54-94

−0.5

ORE

W 97-80

+35.5

BAY

L 81-91

+23.5

UVU

W 77-66

−1.5

LAM

W 89-71

+24.5

W 81-58

+3.5

ARIZ

L 45-68

−40.5

SJSU

W 81-68

+7.5

BOIS

W 110-107

+78.5

NEV

W 73-68

−0.5

FRES

W 71-52

−23.5

WYO

W 74-57

−17.5

UNM

W 83-79

+13.5

GCU

L 69-70

−6.5

UNLV

W 82-71

+3.5

CSU

W 73-50

−16.5

USU

L 66-71

−10.5

WYO

W 72-63

−6.5

W 88-54

+2.5

NEV

W 71-57

−11.5

GCU

L 63-73

−3.5

CSU

L 74-83

+17.5

USU

W 89-72

+14.5

UNM

L 76-81

+6.5

BOIS

L 77-86

+19.5

UNLV

W 89-86

+21.5

CSU

W 71-62

−9.5

UNM

W 64-62

−24.5

USU

L 62-73

−10.5

over 15under 17avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Iowa State

37 games played

Straight up

29-8

78% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

29-878%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W L W W L W L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W W W L L W W W W L L L L W W L L L W W W W L L W W L W L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

U O O O O U O O U U U O O U U U U O U U O U U U U O U U O U O U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFDU	W 88-50	-37.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 138
Nov 6	vsGRAM	W 102-62	-33.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 164
Nov 10	vsMSST	W 96-80	-5.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 17	vsSTO	W 96-57	-40.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 153
Nov 24	vsSJU	W 83-82	-2.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 25	vsCREI	W 78-60	-9.5	W +8.5	152.5	U 138
Nov 26	vsSYR	W 95-64	-10.5	W +20.5	145.5	O 159
Dec 3	vsALCN	W 132-68	-42.5	W +21.5	151.5	O 200
Dec 6	@PUR	W 81-58	+4.5	W +27.5	154.5	U 139
Dec 11	vsIOWA	W 66-62	-11.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 128
Dec 14	vsEIU	W 78-53	-43.5	L −18.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 21	vsLBSU	W 91-60	-37.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 151
Dec 29	vsHCU	W 89-61	-35.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 2	vsWVU	W 80-59	-16.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 139
Jan 7	@BAY	W 70-60	-3.5	W +6.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsOKST	W 83-71	-19.5	L −7.5	165.5	U 154
Jan 13	@KU	L 63-84	-3.5	L −24.5	152.5	U 147
Jan 17	@CIN	L 70-79	-5.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 20	vsUCF	W 87-57	-14.5	W +15.5	156.5	U 144
Jan 24	@OKST	W 84-71	-10.5	W +2.5	162.5	U 155
Jan 29	vsCOLO	W 97-67	-17.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 164
Feb 1	@KSU	W 95-61	-12.5	W +21.5	156.5	U 156
Feb 7	vsBAY	W 72-69	-14.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 141
Feb 10	@TCU	L 55-62	-7.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 117
Feb 14	vsKU	W 74-56	-7.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 130
Feb 16	vsHOU	W 70-67	-2.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 21	@BYU	L 69-79	-2.5	L −12.5	154.5	U 148
Feb 24	@UTAH	W 75-59	-14.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 28	vsTTU	L 73-82	-10.5	L −19.5	145.5	O 155
Mar 2	@ARIZ	L 57-73	+7.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 130
Mar 7	vsASU	W 86-65	-16.5	W +4.5	148.5	O 151
Mar 11	vsASU	W 91-42	-13.5	W +35.5	148.5	U 133
Mar 12	vsTTU	W 75-53	-7.5	W +14.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 13	vsARIZ	L 80-82	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 20	vsTNST	W 108-74	-24.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 182
Mar 22	vsUK	W 82-63	-5.5	W +13.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 27	vsTENN	L 62-76	-2.5	L −16.5	139.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FDU

W 88-50

+0.5

GRAM

W 102-62

+6.5

MSST

W 96-80

+10.5

STO

W 96-57

−1.5

SJU

W 83-82

−1.5

CREI

W 78-60

+8.5

SYR

W 95-64

+20.5

ALCN

W 132-68

+21.5

PUR

W 81-58

+27.5

IOWA

W 66-62

−7.5

EIU

W 78-53

−18.5

LBSU

W 91-60

−6.5

HCU

W 89-61

−7.5

WVU

W 80-59

+4.5

BAY

W 70-60

+6.5

OKST

W 83-71

−7.5

L 63-84

−24.5

CIN

L 70-79

−14.5

UCF

W 87-57

+15.5

OKST

W 84-71

+2.5

COLO

W 97-67

+12.5

KSU

W 95-61

+21.5

BAY

W 72-69

−11.5

TCU

L 55-62

−14.5

W 74-56

+10.5

HOU

W 70-67

+0.5

BYU

L 69-79

−12.5

UTAH

W 75-59

+1.5

TTU

L 73-82

−19.5

ARIZ

L 57-73

−8.5

ASU

W 86-65

+4.5

ASU

W 91-42

+35.5

TTU

W 75-53

+14.5

ARIZ

L 80-82

+1.5

TNST

W 108-74

+9.5

W 82-63

+13.5

TENN

L 62-76

−16.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FDU

W 88-50

−9.5

GRAM

W 102-62

+19.5

MSST

W 96-80

+25.5

STO

W 96-57

+6.5

SJU

W 83-82

+6.5

CREI

W 78-60

−14.5

SYR

W 95-64

+13.5

ALCN

W 132-68

+48.5

PUR

W 81-58

−15.5

IOWA

W 66-62

−13.5

EIU

W 78-53

−13.5

LBSU

W 91-60

+1.5

HCU

W 89-61

+4.5

WVU

W 80-59

−3.5

BAY

W 70-60

−25.5

OKST

W 83-71

−11.5

L 63-84

−5.5

CIN

L 70-79

+7.5

UCF

W 87-57

−12.5

OKST

W 84-71

−7.5

COLO

W 97-67

+11.5

KSU

W 95-61

−0.5

BAY

W 72-69

−10.5

TCU

L 55-62

−30.5

W 74-56

−17.5

HOU

W 70-67

+2.5

BYU

L 69-79

−6.5

UTAH

W 75-59

−10.5

TTU

L 73-82

+9.5

ARIZ

L 57-73

−19.5

ASU

W 86-65

+2.5

ASU

W 91-42

−15.5

TTU

W 75-53

−15.5

ARIZ

L 80-82

+17.5

TNST

W 108-74

+34.5

W 82-63

−1.5

TENN

L 62-76

−1.5

over 15under 22avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Iowa State has the better starters

Position by position: San Diego St 1, Iowa State 3, even 1

San Diego StBetterIowa State

G C. Gladden TR14.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 67

ISUSmall

G R. Prather TR16.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.7 ast Score 84

G N. Anderson TR16 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 95

SDSUSmall

G L. Bond TR12.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74

G I. Sy TR10 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 57

ISUBig

G T. Lipsey13.5 pts · 3.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 98

G E. Harrington7.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 63

ISUBig

G J. Johnson TR16.8 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98

F B. Cherry TR15.3 pts · 6.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

G K. Toure8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79

San Diego StBetterIowa State

SDSU offense86th of 366 · +0.3

ISUSmall

ISU defense6th of 366 · +9.3

SDSU defense70th of 366 · +0.8

Even

ISU offense26th of 366 · +7.0

Backcourt+3.9 · 4 players

ISUBig

Backcourt+14.4 · 5 players

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench+0.9 · 3 players

ISUBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSDSU betterISU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

San Diego St

Guards

C. Gladden34 min · TRN. Anderson30 min · TRI. Sy28 min · TRE. Harrington21 minR. Gonzales2 minL. DavisNew

Forwards

B. Cherry29 min · TRT. Simmons14 minT. Majak3 minS. MashebinuNewL. SkoricNewL. VinciniNew

Iowa State

Guards

R. Prather35 min · TRL. Bond33 min · TRT. Lipsey32 minJ. Johnson31 min · TRK. Toure25 minJ. Batemon16 min

Forwards

T. Singleton25 min · TRB. Buchanan25 minT. Manning21 min · TRD. Pleta11 minX. Mitchell3 minD. Rinaldo-KomlanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SDSU76.8 #120

ISU82.0 #32

Points per possession

SDSU1.09 #159

ISU1.19 #20

Pace (possessions)

SDSU70.6 #89

ISU68.5 #204

Shooting

Effective FG%

SDSU52.7 #116

ISU56.2 #20

3-point %

SDSU34.5 #144

ISU38.3 #12

3-point attempt rate

SDSU33.8 #301

ISU38.8 #196

Free throw rate

SDSU39.0 #81

ISU34.5 #194

Possessions

Turnover rate

SDSU17.2 #224

ISU14.9 #58

Offensive rebound rate

SDSU29.5 #222

ISU35.1 #45

Assists per game

SDSU14.6 #110

ISU17.4 #16

Defense

Points allowed

SDSU71.3 #84

ISU65.6 #9

Points allowed per possession

SDSU1.01 #31

ISU0.96 #4

Opponent effective FG%

SDSU48.2 #41

ISU49.8 #92

Opponent 3-point %

SDSU33.6 #164

ISU32.0 #63

Turnovers forced

SDSU20.2 #19

ISU22.6 #4

Defensive rebound rate

SDSU68.9 #208

ISU71.4 #85

Steals per game

SDSU7.7 #62

ISU9.0 #9

Blocks per game

SDSU4.6 #27

ISU2.6 #289

SDSU		ISU
Scoring
76.8 #120	Points per game	82.0 #32
1.09 #159	Points per possession	1.19 #20
70.6 #89	Pace (possessions)	68.5 #204
Shooting
52.7 #116	Effective FG%	56.2 #20
34.5 #144	3-point %	38.3 #12
33.8 #301	3-point attempt rate	38.8 #196
39.0 #81	Free throw rate	34.5 #194
Possessions
17.2 #224	Turnover rate	14.9 #58
29.5 #222	Offensive rebound rate	35.1 #45
14.6 #110	Assists per game	17.4 #16
Defense
71.3 #84	Points allowed	65.6 #9
1.01 #31	Points allowed per possession	0.96 #4
48.2 #41	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #92
33.6 #164	Opponent 3-point %	32.0 #63
20.2 #19	Turnovers forced	22.6 #4
68.9 #208	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #85
7.7 #62	Steals per game	9.0 #9
4.6 #27	Blocks per game	2.6 #289

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

San Diego St

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Utah State62–73
Wvs New Mexico64–62
Wvs Colorado St71–62
Wvs UNLV89–86
L@ Boise St77–86

A week or more of rest.

Iowa State

29-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tennessee62–76
Wvs Kentucky82–63
Wvs Tennessee St108–74
Lvs Arizona80–82
Wvs Texas Tech75–53

A week or more of rest.

San Diego State Aztecs vs Iowa State Cyclones

What could decide it: ISU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

San Diego St

Iowa State

Iowa State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

San Diego St

Iowa State