1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. ARST @ FIU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Florida International Panthers

Ocean Bank Convocation Center · at FIU
#171ARSTArkansas St
@
#178FIUFIU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ARSTThis seasonFIU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FIU 81–77 · win probability FIU 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARST has more of the edges

ARST 4, FIU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ARST 38.2%, FIU 33.9%. Defensive: ARST 73.0%, FIU 65.2%
FIUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ARST 19.8%, FIU 17.8%. Forced: ARST 14.9%, FIU 20.0%
FIUSmall
FIU offense vs ARST defense
Offense 144th of 366 against a defense 252nd, on the model’s ratings
ARSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ARST 51.7 and allows 50.3; FIU 50.6 and allows 52.9
ARSTSmall
ARST offense vs FIU defense
Offense 122nd of 366 against a defense 217th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ARST has played the 221st-hardest schedule, FIU the 151st. A record against a soft schedule means less
FIUSmall
Home court
FIU at home. This season: FIU 0-0 at home, ARST 0-0 away
ARSTSmall
Three-pointers
ARST hits 32.9% and allows 32.9%; FIU hits 34.7% and allows 36.2%. Threes are 44.9% and 32.8% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ARST 6%, FIU 0%. Transfers in: ARST 3, FIU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ARST 39.1, FIU 38.6. Allowed: ARST 37.0, FIU 35.9
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: ARST plays 73.4 a game (16th fastest), FIU 72.4 (26th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FIU -3.3—
Total—157.7—
Projected score—ARST 77.2 · FIU 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFIU -1.8—
1H total73.7—
1H projected scoreARST 35.9 · FIU 37.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Arkansas St 1, FIU 1, even 3
Arkansas StBetterFIU
G J. Pyke TR12.3 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 83
Even
G T. Saine TR18.1 pts · 2.3 reb · 4.4 ast Score 91
G L. Taylor TR8 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.2 ast Score 45
ARSTSmall
G C. Caulker TR7.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 22
G R. Blue Smith4.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 33
No call
G H. Cuevas TR2.6 pts · 1 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
F A. Doumbia TR3.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.2 ast Score 36
FIUSmall
F J. Colonel TR4.6 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 52
F D. Muon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F R. Seals TR7.5 pts · 4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 61
Arkansas StBetterFIU
ARST offense122nd of 366 · -3.2
ARSTSmall
FIU defense217th of 366 · -5.7
ARST defense252nd of 366 · -6.6
FIUSmall
FIU offense144th of 366 · -4.3
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-0.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.0 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.9 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestARST betterFIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Arkansas St
Guards
J. Pyke26 min · TRL. Taylor25 min · TRR. Blue Smith13 minC. WatsonNewT. FergusonNewC. GeathersNew
Forwards
A. Doumbia14 min · TRD. MuonNewG. BennettNewA. MaigaNewR. OmedNewM. SyNew
FIU
Guards
T. Saine34 min · TRC. Caulker31 min · TRH. Cuevas13 min · TRN. MendyNewM. BlazerNewC. HallNew
Forwards
J. Colonel26 min · TRR. Seals18 min · TRJ. Payne7 min · TRG. GiceviciusNewC. RingNewS. N'DiayeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ARSTFIU
Scoring
81.8 #33Points per game77.7 #100
1.11 #117Points per possession1.08 #197
73.4 #16Pace (possessions)72.4 #26
Shooting
51.7 #164Effective FG%50.6 #210
32.9 #2403-point %34.7 #137
44.9 #703-point attempt rate32.8 #321
39.1 #78Free throw rate38.6 #87
Possessions
19.8 #344Turnover rate17.8 #258
38.2 #6Offensive rebound rate33.9 #69
15.3 #77Assists per game13.6 #173
Defense
78.0 #268Points allowed79.1 #301
1.07 #121Points allowed per possession1.09 #194
50.3 #117Opponent effective FG%52.9 #264
32.9 #115Opponent 3-point %36.2 #313
14.9 #298Turnovers forced20.0 #22
73.0 #36Defensive rebound rate65.2 #335
7.2 #110Steals per game8.8 #12
2.8 #268Blocks per game4.4 #43
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Arkansas St

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern77–80
  • Wvs Louisiana81–58
  • Wvs Southern Miss89–84
  • W@ UL Monroe102–94
  • W@ Louisiana79–62

A week or more of rest.

FIU

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Missouri St72–75
  • Wvs Western KY92–67
  • Lvs MTSU67–73
  • W@ Louisiana Tech84–76
  • L@ Sam Houston67–100

A week or more of rest.