Liberty Flames vs Princeton Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 4:00 PM ETTrask Coliseum · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Liberty and Princeton
LIB	This season	PRIN
0-1	Record	0-0
0-1	ATS	0-0
0-1	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PRIN 70–69 · win probability PRIN 52%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PRIN has more of the edges

LIB 2, PRIN 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LIBBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LIB 13.4%, PRIN 17.1%. Forced: LIB 17.0%, PRIN 14.2%

PRINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LIB 19.3%, PRIN 27.2%. Defensive: LIB 66.9%, PRIN 71.5%

LIBSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LIB 59.1 and allows 52.7; PRIN 49.6 and allows 52.0

PRINSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LIB 47%, PRIN 100%. Transfers in: LIB 2, PRIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

PRINSmall

LIB offense vs PRIN defense

Offense 202nd of 366 against a defense 115th, on the model’s ratings

PRINSmall

Three-pointers

LIB hits 38.6% and allows 37.7%; PRIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.1%. Threes are 47.7% and 44.5% of their shots

Even

PRIN offense vs LIB defense

Offense 177th of 366 against a defense 138th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LIB 31.4, PRIN 34.6. Allowed: LIB 27.0, PRIN 34.0

Context

Schedule so far

LIB has played the 148th-hardest schedule, PRIN the 137th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: LIB plays 65.1 a game (343rd fastest), PRIN 65.0 (344th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PRIN -0.5	—
Total	—	139.2	—
Projected score	—	LIB 69.3 · PRIN 69.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PRIN -0.2	—
1H total	65.2	—
1H projected score	LIB 32.5 · PRIN 32.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LIB LWLWL	13-18	42%	0-4	—
PRIN LLWWL	16-12	57%	3-1	—

Venue/role: LIB neutral site; PRIN neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OUOOU	18-13	58%	23-8
PRIN OOUOU	13-15	46%	8-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
PRIN	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Liberty

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs STMN	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ UNCW	No recent meeting

Princeton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ UNCW	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs STMN	No recent meeting
Dec 3	@ UVM	W75–69WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Liberty

31 games played

Straight up

23-8

74% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-874%

W W W L L W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1842%

W W L L L W L W L W L W W L L W W W L L L W L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1358%

O O O O U U U U O U O U O U O U U O O O O U O O U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCOFC	W 90-75	-9.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 9	vsFAU	W 88-68	-7.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsUVM	W 79-73	-8.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTOW	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsBRAD	L 64-74	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 6	vsCOPP	W 92-50	-30.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 10	@NCSU	L 45-85	+12.5	L −27.5	149.5	U 130
Dec 20	@DAY	W 64-61	+9.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 125
Dec 28	@FIU	W 97-94	-4.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 191
Jan 2	vsKENN	W 81-73	-7.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 154
Jan 4	vsJXST	W 78-69	-9.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 8	@LT	W 72-56	-4.5	W +11.5	135.5	U 128
Jan 10	@SHSU	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsNMSU	W 73-71	-8.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsUTEP	W 80-69	-13.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 149
Jan 21	@WKU	W 76-69	-1.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 145
Jan 24	vsDEL	W 67-51	-15.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 118
Jan 29	@MTSU	W 81-65	-1.5	W +14.5	136.5	O 146
Feb 4	@DEL	W 75-69	-10.5	L −4.5	132.5	O 144
Feb 7	vsMOST	W 79-76	-9.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 155
Feb 11	@NMSU	W 77-75	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 14	@UTEP	W 73-64	-6.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 19	vsFIU	W 90-89	-9.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 179
Feb 21	vsWKU	L 73-94	-7.5	L −28.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 26	@KENN	L 65-74	-1.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 28	@JXST	W 81-78	-3.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsLT	L 71-76	-8.5	L −13.5	136.5	O 147
Mar 7	vsSHSU	W 79-72	-4.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 151
Mar 11	vsMOST	L 69-77	-4.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 146
Mar 17	@GMU	W 77-71	+2.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 21	@NEV	L 63-73	+7.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+5.5

FAU

W 88-68

+12.5

UVM

W 79-73

−2.5

TOW

L 69-72

−9.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−14.5

COPP

W 92-50

+11.5

NCSU

L 45-85

−27.5

DAY

W 64-61

+12.5

FIU

W 97-94

−1.5

KENN

W 81-73

+0.5

JXST

W 78-69

−0.5

W 72-56

+11.5

SHSU

W 82-74

+6.5

NMSU

W 73-71

−6.5

UTEP

W 80-69

−2.5

WKU

W 76-69

+5.5

DEL

W 67-51

+0.5

MTSU

W 81-65

+14.5

DEL

W 75-69

−4.5

MOST

W 79-76

−6.5

NMSU

W 77-75

−1.5

UTEP

W 73-64

+2.5

FIU

W 90-89

−8.5

WKU

L 73-94

−28.5

KENN

L 65-74

−10.5

JXST

W 81-78

−0.5

L 71-76

−13.5

SHSU

W 79-72

+2.5

MOST

L 69-77

−12.5

GMU

W 77-71

+8.5

NEV

L 63-73

−2.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+19.5

FAU

W 88-68

+3.5

UVM

W 79-73

+10.5

TOW

L 69-72

+3.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−6.5

COPP

W 92-50

−1.5

NCSU

L 45-85

−19.5

DAY

W 64-61

−17.5

FIU

W 97-94

+38.5

KENN

W 81-73

−4.5

JXST

W 78-69

+12.5

W 72-56

−7.5

SHSU

W 82-74

+1.5

NMSU

W 73-71

−1.5

UTEP

W 80-69

+11.5

WKU

W 76-69

−3.5

DEL

W 67-51

−16.5

MTSU

W 81-65

+9.5

DEL

W 75-69

+11.5

MOST

W 79-76

+14.5

NMSU

W 77-75

+7.5

UTEP

W 73-64

−2.5

FIU

W 90-89

+26.5

WKU

L 73-94

+19.5

KENN

L 65-74

−13.5

JXST

W 81-78

+19.5

L 71-76

+10.5

SHSU

W 79-72

−1.5

MOST

L 69-77

+3.5

GMU

W 77-71

+6.5

NEV

L 63-73

−10.5

over 18under 13avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Princeton

28 games played

Straight up

8-20

29% wins

Against the spread

16-12

57% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2029%

L W L L W L L L L L L L L W W W L L W L W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1257%

L W W L W L W W W W W L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1546%

O U U O U O O O U U O U U O O U O U U U O U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AKR	L 69-104	+13.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 11	vsBUCK	W 73-63	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 15	@KU	L 57-76	+22.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	@IONA	L 69-89	+2.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 20	vsNE	W 70-57	-2.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 24	vsBRAD	L 64-88	+9.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTEM	L 75-79	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsUVM	L 74-79	+5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsJOES	L 58-60	+5.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 118
Dec 3	@MONM	L 58-63	+5.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 121
Dec 6	@LUC	L 68-73	+6.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 10	vsMRMK	L 56-59	-2.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 22	@TEM	L 61-65	+8.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsUVM	W 75-69	+3.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 5	vsPENN	W 78-76	-3.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsYALE	W 76-60	+7.5	W +23.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 17	@HARV	L 80-87	+4.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	@DART	L 69-71	-1.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsBRWN	W 63-53	-4.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	@COR	L 64-87	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 151
Jan 31	@COLU	W 80-68	+5.5	W +17.5	139.5	O 148
Feb 7	@PENN	L 60-61	+3.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 121
Feb 13	vsCOR	L 65-89	+3.5	L −20.5	155.5	U 154
Feb 14	vsCOLU	L 65-75	+1.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 140
Feb 20	@BRWN	L 71-80	+2.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 151
Feb 27	vsHARV	L 56-58	+3.5	W +1.5	130.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsDART	W 82-61	-1.5	W +19.5	142.5	O 143
Mar 7	@YALE	L 53-78	+14.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

−21.5

BUCK

W 73-63

+5.5

L 57-76

+3.5

IONA

L 69-89

−17.5

W 70-57

+10.5

BRAD

L 64-88

−14.5

TEM

L 75-79

+4.5

UVM

L 74-79

+0.5

JOES

L 58-60

+3.5

MONM

L 58-63

+0.5

LUC

L 68-73

+1.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−5.5

TEM

L 61-65

+4.5

UVM

W 75-69

+9.5

PENN

W 78-76

−1.5

YALE

W 76-60

+23.5

HARV

L 80-87

−2.5

DART

L 69-71

−3.5

BRWN

W 63-53

+5.5

COR

L 64-87

−15.5

COLU

W 80-68

+17.5

PENN

L 60-61

+2.5

COR

L 65-89

−20.5

COLU

L 65-75

−8.5

BRWN

L 71-80

−6.5

HARV

L 56-58

+1.5

DART

W 82-61

+19.5

YALE

L 53-78

−10.5

covered 16didn’t cover 12avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

+16.5

BUCK

W 73-63

−10.5

L 57-76

−11.5

IONA

L 69-89

+3.5

W 70-57

−18.5

BRAD

L 64-88

+10.5

TEM

L 75-79

+8.5

UVM

L 74-79

+12.5

JOES

L 58-60

−28.5

MONM

L 58-63

−18.5

LUC

L 68-73

+4.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−19.5

TEM

L 61-65

−13.5

UVM

W 75-69

+7.5

PENN

W 78-76

+8.5

YALE

W 76-60

−6.5

HARV

L 80-87

+33.5

DART

L 69-71

−7.5

BRWN

W 63-53

−18.5

COR

L 64-87

−7.5

COLU

W 80-68

+8.5

PENN

L 60-61

−23.5

COR

L 65-89

−1.5

COLU

L 65-75

+2.5

BRWN

L 71-80

+21.5

HARV

L 56-58

−16.5

DART

W 82-61

+0.5

YALE

L 53-78

−6.5

over 13under 15avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Princeton has the better starters

Position by position: Liberty 0, Princeton 2, even 3

LibertyBetterPrinceton

G C. Campbell TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 67

PRINSmall

G J. Hicke15.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 85

G E. Sancomb10 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast Score 55

Even

G J. Stanton11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 64

G C. Campbell TR9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31

Even

G L. Clark6.2 pts · 4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29

G Z. Carter2.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 27

PRINBig

G D. Davis14.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 69

F D. Claussen2 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 50

Even

F M. Abdullahi9.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 54

LibertyBetterPrinceton

LIB offense202nd of 366 · -6.3

PRINSmall

PRIN defense115th of 366 · -1.5

LIB defense138th of 366 · -2.9

Even

PRIN offense177th of 366 · -5.5

Backcourt-2.8 · 4 players

PRINBig

Backcourt+0.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

LIBBig

Bench-4.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLIB betterPRIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Liberty

Guards

C. Campbell35 min · TRE. Sancomb34 minC. Campbell29 min · TRZ. Carter12 minM. SheltonNewE. HerbertNew

Forwards

D. Claussen33 minR. Jones5 minB. Kester3 minD. Grimes3 minT. Drain2 minT. Sorensen2 min

Princeton

Guards

J. Hicke35 minJ. Stanton32 minL. Clark29 minD. Davis28 minS. Whitfield12 minP. Seals8 min

Forwards

M. Abdullahi29 minJ. Huggins22 minC. Happy19 minJ. Hammond7 minC. McSweeney5 minW. Kutzler1 min

Centers

W. HiggsNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LIB75.8 #146

PRIN67.5 #324

Points per possession

LIB1.17 #41

PRIN1.04 #268

Pace (possessions)

LIB65.1 #343

PRIN65.0 #344

Shooting

Effective FG%

LIB59.1 #4

PRIN49.6 #260

3-point %

LIB38.6 #8

PRIN33.9 #177

3-point attempt rate

LIB47.7 #28

PRIN44.5 #78

Free throw rate

LIB31.4 #273

PRIN34.6 #192

Possessions

Turnover rate

LIB13.4 #13

PRIN17.1 #216

Offensive rebound rate

LIB19.3 #365

PRIN27.2 #287

Assists per game

LIB16.5 #36

PRIN12.5 #254

Defense

Points allowed

LIB72.2 #110

PRIN72.4 #114

Points allowed per possession

LIB1.11 #234

PRIN1.11 #242

Opponent effective FG%

LIB52.7 #251

PRIN52.0 #209

Opponent 3-point %

LIB37.7 #353

PRIN31.1 #36

Turnovers forced

LIB17.0 #149

PRIN14.2 #328

Defensive rebound rate

LIB66.9 #302

PRIN71.5 #82

Steals per game

LIB6.2 #218

PRIN4.6 #349

Blocks per game

LIB3.3 #178

PRIN2.1 #341

LIB		PRIN
Scoring
75.8 #146	Points per game	67.5 #324
1.17 #41	Points per possession	1.04 #268
65.1 #343	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #344
Shooting
59.1 #4	Effective FG%	49.6 #260
38.6 #8	3-point %	33.9 #177
47.7 #28	3-point attempt rate	44.5 #78
31.4 #273	Free throw rate	34.6 #192
Possessions
13.4 #13	Turnover rate	17.1 #216
19.3 #365	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #287
16.5 #36	Assists per game	12.5 #254
Defense
72.2 #110	Points allowed	72.4 #114
1.11 #234	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #242
52.7 #251	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #209
37.7 #353	Opponent 3-point %	31.1 #36
17.0 #149	Turnovers forced	14.2 #328
66.9 #302	Defensive rebound rate	71.5 #82
6.2 #218	Steals per game	4.6 #349
3.3 #178	Blocks per game	2.1 #341

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Liberty

23-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Nevada63–73
W@ George Mason77–71
Lvs Missouri St69–77
Wvs Sam Houston79–72
Lvs Louisiana Tech71–76

A week or more of rest.

Princeton

8-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Yale53–78
Wvs Dartmouth82–61
Lvs Harvard56–58
L@ Brown71–80
Lvs Columbia65–75

A week or more of rest.

Liberty Flames vs Princeton Tigers

What could decide it: PRIN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Liberty

Princeton

Princeton has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Liberty

Princeton