Princeton Tigers at UNC Wilmington Seahawks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 12:00 AM ETTrask Coliseum · at UNC Wilmington

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Princeton and UNC Wilmington
PRIN	This season	UNCW
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNCW 74–68 · win probability UNCW 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNCW has more of the edges

PRIN 1, UNCW 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNCWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PRIN 27.2%, UNCW 35.3%. Defensive: PRIN 71.5%, UNCW 72.4%

PRINBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PRIN 100%, UNCW 35%. Transfers in: PRIN 0, UNCW 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UNCWBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PRIN 49.6 and allows 52.0; UNCW 50.4 and allows 47.5

UNCWSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PRIN 34.6, UNCW 40.4. Allowed: PRIN 34.0, UNCW 31.7

UNCWSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PRIN 17.1%, UNCW 14.9%. Forced: PRIN 14.2%, UNCW 14.9%

Context

Schedule so far

PRIN has played the 137th-hardest schedule, UNCW the 228th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNCWSmall

PRIN offense vs UNCW defense

Offense 177th of 366 against a defense 119th, on the model’s ratings

UNCWSmall

Home court

UNCW at home. This season: UNCW 0-0 at home, PRIN 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

PRIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.1%; UNCW hits 35.0% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 44.5% and 38.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: PRIN plays 65.0 a game (344th fastest), UNCW 66.1 (310th). Faster games mean more points

Even

UNCW offense vs PRIN defense

Offense 131st of 366 against a defense 115th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNCW -5.9	—
Total	—	141.9	—
Projected score	—	PRIN 68 · UNCW 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCW -3.4	—
1H total	66.4	—
1H projected score	PRIN 31.5 · UNCW 34.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRIN LLWWL	16-12	57%	6-7	—
UNCW LWLWL	16-16	50%	8-9	—

Venue/role: PRIN away; UNCW home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRIN OOUOU	13-15	46%	8-20
UNCW OUOUO	18-14	56%	25-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRIN	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UNCW	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Princeton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs STMN	No recent meeting
Dec 3	@ UVM	W75–69WO
Dec 6	@ NE	W70–57WU

UNC Wilmington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs LIB	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ MRSH	W70–69LU
Dec 5	vs VAL	W73–70LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Princeton

28 games played

Straight up

8-20

29% wins

Against the spread

16-12

57% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2029%

L W L L W L L L L L L L L W W W L L W L W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1257%

L W W L W L W W W W W L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1546%

O U U O U O O O U U O U U O O U O U U U O U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AKR	L 69-104	+13.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 11	vsBUCK	W 73-63	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 15	@KU	L 57-76	+22.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	@IONA	L 69-89	+2.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 20	vsNE	W 70-57	-2.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 24	vsBRAD	L 64-88	+9.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTEM	L 75-79	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsUVM	L 74-79	+5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsJOES	L 58-60	+5.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 118
Dec 3	@MONM	L 58-63	+5.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 121
Dec 6	@LUC	L 68-73	+6.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 10	vsMRMK	L 56-59	-2.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 22	@TEM	L 61-65	+8.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsUVM	W 75-69	+3.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 5	vsPENN	W 78-76	-3.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsYALE	W 76-60	+7.5	W +23.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 17	@HARV	L 80-87	+4.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	@DART	L 69-71	-1.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsBRWN	W 63-53	-4.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	@COR	L 64-87	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 151
Jan 31	@COLU	W 80-68	+5.5	W +17.5	139.5	O 148
Feb 7	@PENN	L 60-61	+3.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 121
Feb 13	vsCOR	L 65-89	+3.5	L −20.5	155.5	U 154
Feb 14	vsCOLU	L 65-75	+1.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 140
Feb 20	@BRWN	L 71-80	+2.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 151
Feb 27	vsHARV	L 56-58	+3.5	W +1.5	130.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsDART	W 82-61	-1.5	W +19.5	142.5	O 143
Mar 7	@YALE	L 53-78	+14.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

−21.5

BUCK

W 73-63

+5.5

L 57-76

+3.5

IONA

L 69-89

−17.5

W 70-57

+10.5

BRAD

L 64-88

−14.5

TEM

L 75-79

+4.5

UVM

L 74-79

+0.5

JOES

L 58-60

+3.5

MONM

L 58-63

+0.5

LUC

L 68-73

+1.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−5.5

TEM

L 61-65

+4.5

UVM

W 75-69

+9.5

PENN

W 78-76

−1.5

YALE

W 76-60

+23.5

HARV

L 80-87

−2.5

DART

L 69-71

−3.5

BRWN

W 63-53

+5.5

COR

L 64-87

−15.5

COLU

W 80-68

+17.5

PENN

L 60-61

+2.5

COR

L 65-89

−20.5

COLU

L 65-75

−8.5

BRWN

L 71-80

−6.5

HARV

L 56-58

+1.5

DART

W 82-61

+19.5

YALE

L 53-78

−10.5

covered 16didn’t cover 12avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

+16.5

BUCK

W 73-63

−10.5

L 57-76

−11.5

IONA

L 69-89

+3.5

W 70-57

−18.5

BRAD

L 64-88

+10.5

TEM

L 75-79

+8.5

UVM

L 74-79

+12.5

JOES

L 58-60

−28.5

MONM

L 58-63

−18.5

LUC

L 68-73

+4.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−19.5

TEM

L 61-65

−13.5

UVM

W 75-69

+7.5

PENN

W 78-76

+8.5

YALE

W 76-60

−6.5

HARV

L 80-87

+33.5

DART

L 69-71

−7.5

BRWN

W 63-53

−18.5

COR

L 64-87

−7.5

COLU

W 80-68

+8.5

PENN

L 60-61

−23.5

COR

L 65-89

−1.5

COLU

L 65-75

+2.5

BRWN

L 71-80

+21.5

HARV

L 56-58

−16.5

DART

W 82-61

+0.5

YALE

L 53-78

−6.5

over 13under 15avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNC Wilmington

32 games played

Straight up

25-7

78% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-778%

L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L L L W W L W W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O U U O U O O U O O U O U U O O O U O O O U U U O U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@KENT	L 77-86	+3.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsUPST	W 73-60	-14.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsECU	W 85-60	-6.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	@RAD	W 81-73	-4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsSELA	W 70-57	-11.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsNAVY	W 87-57	-8.5	W +21.5	138.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsGWEB	W 88-62	-18.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 3	vsMRSH	W 70-69	-8.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UL	W 70-63	-12.5	L −5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@VAL	W 73-70	-4.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 20	vsHOW	L 66-67	-15.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 133
Dec 29	@NCAT	W 87-78	-10.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 31	vsDREX	W 65-53	-12.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsHAMP	W 49-45	-12.5	L −8.5	140.5	U 94
Jan 8	@NE	W 87-78	-4.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 165
Jan 10	@STBK	W 75-71	-6.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsCAM	W 78-75	-6.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 153
Jan 22	@W&M	L 70-77	+2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 147
Jan 24	@HAMP	W 75-67	-4.5	W +3.5	136.5	O 142
Jan 29	@TOW	W 82-73	+1.5	W +10.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 5	vsW&M	L 78-85	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 163
Feb 9	@COFC	W 76-64	+1.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 12	vsELON	W 65-54	-8.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsHOF	W 70-66	-2.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 19	vsMONM	W 79-69	-7.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 21	@CAM	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 26	vsNCAT	W 88-65	-13.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 153
Mar 1	vsCOFC	L 76-79	-5.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 155
Mar 3	@ELON	W 76-57	-4.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 133
Mar 8	vsCAM	L 70-85	-6.5	L −21.5	149.5	O 155
Mar 17	@YALE	W 68-67	+4.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 135
Mar 21	vsDAY	L 61-80	+3.5	L −15.5	138.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

−5.5

UPST

W 73-60

−1.5

ECU

W 85-60

+18.5

RAD

W 81-73

+3.5

SELA

W 70-57

+1.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+21.5

GWEB

W 88-62

+7.5

MRSH

W 70-69

−7.5

W 70-63

−5.5

VAL

W 73-70

−1.5

HOW

L 66-67

−16.5

NCAT

W 87-78

−1.5

DREX

W 65-53

−0.5

HAMP

W 49-45

−8.5

W 87-78

+4.5

STBK

W 75-71

−2.5

CAM

W 78-75

−3.5

W&M

L 70-77

−4.5

HAMP

W 75-67

+3.5

TOW

W 82-73

+10.5

W&M

L 78-85

−11.5

COFC

W 76-64

+13.5

ELON

W 65-54

+2.5

HOF

W 70-66

+1.5

MONM

W 79-69

+2.5

CAM

W 73-68

+1.5

NCAT

W 88-65

+9.5

COFC

L 76-79

−8.5

ELON

W 76-57

+14.5

CAM

L 70-85

−21.5

YALE

W 68-67

+5.5

DAY

L 61-80

−15.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

+6.5

UPST

W 73-60

−22.5

ECU

W 85-60

−0.5

RAD

W 81-73

+2.5

SELA

W 70-57

−10.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+5.5

GWEB

W 88-62

+2.5

MRSH

W 70-69

−11.5

W 70-63

+2.5

VAL

W 73-70

+6.5

HOW

L 66-67

−8.5

NCAT

W 87-78

+18.5

DREX

W 65-53

−19.5

HAMP

W 49-45

−46.5

W 87-78

+22.5

STBK

W 75-71

+12.5

CAM

W 78-75

+3.5

W&M

L 70-77

−12.5

HAMP

W 75-67

+5.5

TOW

W 82-73

+19.5

W&M

L 78-85

+3.5

COFC

W 76-64

−8.5

ELON

W 65-54

−30.5

HOF

W 70-66

−1.5

MONM

W 79-69

+3.5

CAM

W 73-68

−9.5

NCAT

W 88-65

+6.5

COFC

L 76-79

+8.5

ELON

W 76-57

−12.5

CAM

L 70-85

+5.5

YALE

W 68-67

−13.5

DAY

L 61-80

+2.5

over 18under 14avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UNC Wilmington has the better starters

Position by position: Princeton 1, UNC Wilmington 2, even 2

PrincetonBetterUNC Wilmington

G J. Hicke15.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 85

Even

G W. Kermoury TR13.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 75

G J. Stanton11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 64

Even

G T. Pettway TR8.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 2 ast Score 64

G L. Clark6.2 pts · 4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29

UNCWSmall

F G. Walsh9.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 57

G D. Davis14.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 69

PRINBig

F S. Elliott TR4.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 23

F M. Abdullahi9.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 54

UNCWSmall

C P. Wessler13.5 pts · 9.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 87

PrincetonBetterUNC Wilmington

PRIN offense177th of 366 · -5.5

UNCWSmall

UNCW defense119th of 366 · -1.8

PRIN defense115th of 366 · -1.5

Even

UNCW offense131st of 366 · -3.7

Backcourt+0.9 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt+1.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player

UNCWSmall

Frontcourt+2.5 · 3 players

Bench-4.6 · 5 players

UNCWBig

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestPRIN betterUNCW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Princeton

Guards

J. Hicke35 minJ. Stanton32 minL. Clark29 minD. Davis28 minS. Whitfield12 minP. Seals8 min

Forwards

M. Abdullahi29 minJ. Huggins22 minC. Happy19 minJ. Hammond7 minC. McSweeney5 minW. Kutzler1 min

Centers

W. HiggsNew

UNC Wilmington

Guards

W. Kermoury27 min · TRT. Pettway22 min · TRJ. Lamothe15 minX. Brown12 min · TRM. Smith3 minC. LusterNew

Forwards

G. Walsh26 minS. Elliott17 min · TRT. NelsonNewM. ProdanovicNewW. SewardNew

Centers

P. Wessler27 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PRIN67.5 #324

UNCW74.6 #174

Points per possession

PRIN1.04 #268

UNCW1.13 #84

Pace (possessions)

PRIN65.0 #344

UNCW66.1 #310

Shooting

Effective FG%

PRIN49.6 #260

UNCW50.4 #220

3-point %

PRIN33.9 #177

UNCW35.0 #124

3-point attempt rate

PRIN44.5 #78

UNCW38.8 #194

Free throw rate

PRIN34.6 #192

UNCW40.4 #54

Possessions

Turnover rate

PRIN17.1 #216

UNCW14.9 #57

Offensive rebound rate

PRIN27.2 #287

UNCW35.3 #40

Assists per game

PRIN12.5 #254

UNCW13.1 #204

Defense

Points allowed

PRIN72.4 #114

UNCW68.1 #32

Points allowed per possession

PRIN1.11 #242

UNCW1.03 #56

Opponent effective FG%

PRIN52.0 #209

UNCW47.5 #30

Opponent 3-point %

PRIN31.1 #36

UNCW29.7 #6

Turnovers forced

PRIN14.2 #328

UNCW14.9 #297

Defensive rebound rate

PRIN71.5 #82

UNCW72.4 #51

Steals per game

PRIN4.6 #349

UNCW5.1 #330

Blocks per game

PRIN2.1 #341

UNCW2.4 #312

PRIN		UNCW
Scoring
67.5 #324	Points per game	74.6 #174
1.04 #268	Points per possession	1.13 #84
65.0 #344	Pace (possessions)	66.1 #310
Shooting
49.6 #260	Effective FG%	50.4 #220
33.9 #177	3-point %	35.0 #124
44.5 #78	3-point attempt rate	38.8 #194
34.6 #192	Free throw rate	40.4 #54
Possessions
17.1 #216	Turnover rate	14.9 #57
27.2 #287	Offensive rebound rate	35.3 #40
12.5 #254	Assists per game	13.1 #204
Defense
72.4 #114	Points allowed	68.1 #32
1.11 #242	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #56
52.0 #209	Opponent effective FG%	47.5 #30
31.1 #36	Opponent 3-point %	29.7 #6
14.2 #328	Turnovers forced	14.9 #297
71.5 #82	Defensive rebound rate	72.4 #51
4.6 #349	Steals per game	5.1 #330
2.1 #341	Blocks per game	2.4 #312

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Princeton

8-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Yale53–78
Wvs Dartmouth82–61
Lvs Harvard56–58
L@ Brown71–80
Lvs Columbia65–75

A week or more of rest.

UNC Wilmington

25-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Dayton61–80
W@ Yale68–67
Lvs Campbell70–85
W@ Elon76–57
Lvs Charleston76–79

A week or more of rest.

Princeton Tigers at UNC Wilmington Seahawks

What could decide it: UNCW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Princeton

UNC Wilmington

UNC Wilmington has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Princeton

UNC Wilmington