1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. NIA @ LAF
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Niagara Purple Eagles at Lafayette Leopards

Kirby Sports Center · at Lafayette
#346NIANiagara
@
#310LAFLafayette
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NIAThis seasonLAF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAF 72–67 · win probability LAF 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 138.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAF has more of the edges

NIA 3, LAF 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LAFBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NIA 24.8%, LAF 25.8%. Defensive: NIA 67.1%, LAF 71.4%
LAFBig
NIA offense vs LAF defense
Offense 355th of 366 against a defense 245th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NIA has played the 334th-hardest schedule, LAF the 230th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LAFSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NIA 26.6, LAF 32.5. Allowed: NIA 33.8, LAF 30.6
LAFSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NIA 18.9%, LAF 15.3%. Forced: NIA 16.6%, LAF 15.1%
NIASmall
Three-pointers
NIA hits 33.7% and allows 35.3%; LAF hits 32.1% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 40.5% and 39.8% of their shots
NIASmall
LAF offense vs NIA defense
Offense 331st of 366 against a defense 278th, on the model’s ratings
LAFSmall
Home court
LAF at home. This season: LAF 0-0 at home, NIA 0-0 away
NIASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NIA 50.5 and allows 52.8; LAF 49.3 and allows 53.6
Context
Tempo
About 65 possessions: NIA plays 63.4 a game (364th fastest), LAF 67.2 (274th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NIA 15%, LAF 34%. Transfers in: NIA 5, LAF 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LAF -4.6—
Total—138.7—
Projected score—NIA 67 · LAF 71.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLAF -2.6—
1H total65.0—
1H projected scoreNIA 31.2 · LAF 33.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Niagara 1, Lafayette 1, even 3
NiagaraBetterLafayette
G T. Walters7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 27
No call
G P. D'Arcy TR1.1 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
G C. Farrell TR6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 11
LAFBig
F S. Jackson10.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 67
G L. Woods TR4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 15
Even
F K. Murdock2.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16
G B. Rieber TR3.9 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 7
Even
F L. Bevilacqua2.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13
G T. Blackshear TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 43
NIABig
C M. Bednostin1.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8
NiagaraBetterLafayette
NIA offense355th of 366 · -13.3
LAFSmall
LAF defense245th of 366 · -6.5
NIA defense278th of 366 · -7.0
Even
LAF offense331st of 366 · -10.8
Backcourt-8.7 · 5 players
LAFBig
Backcourt-0.7 · 1 player
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-2.4 · 4 players
Bench-1.5 · 2 players
Even
Bench-1.4 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestNIA betterLAF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Niagara
Guards
T. Walters22 minC. Farrell21 min · TRL. Woods18 min · TRB. Rieber16 min · TRT. Blackshear14 min · TRG. Dalmau7 min
Forwards
V. Todorovic10 min · TRN. SlingerlandNewF. RottaNewB. AngelettiNewD. EmokhareNew
Lafayette
Guards
P. D'Arcy7 min · TRF. Fayemi6 minA. Wallace4 minB. CurrieNewC. KeslerNewS. HentonNew
Forwards
S. Jackson22 minK. Murdock10 minL. Bevilacqua9 minM. Rasul4 minL. Azzinaro2 minJ. GillNew
Centers
M. Bednostin10 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NIALAF
Scoring
63.3 #355Points per game69.1 #297
1.00 #330Points per possession1.03 #289
63.4 #364Pace (possessions)67.2 #274
Shooting
50.5 #214Effective FG%49.3 #278
33.7 #1883-point %32.1 #273
40.5 #1593-point attempt rate39.8 #173
26.6 #353Free throw rate32.5 #249
Possessions
18.9 #318Turnover rate15.3 #89
24.8 #344Offensive rebound rate25.8 #326
13.8 #162Assists per game13.6 #175
Defense
71.7 #98Points allowed75.4 #200
1.13 #300Points allowed per possession1.12 #275
52.8 #260Opponent effective FG%53.6 #286
35.3 #268Opponent 3-point %36.0 #298
16.6 #177Turnovers forced15.1 #273
67.1 #297Defensive rebound rate71.4 #88
5.6 #284Steals per game5.3 #316
2.8 #254Blocks per game2.3 #324
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Niagara

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Merrimack66–73
  • Wvs Quinnipiac78–76
  • L@ Rider62–67
  • L@ Mount St Marys63–76
  • Wvs Iona70–68

A week or more of rest.

Lafayette

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Holy Cross77–82
  • Wvs Army83–77
  • W@ Colgate70–69
  • Lvs American61–75
  • W@ Holy Cross86–83

A week or more of rest.