1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. NIA vs LEM
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

Niagara Purple Eagles vs Le Moyne Dolphins

Kirby Sports Center · Neutral site
#346NIANiagara
vs
#332LEMLe Moyne
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NIAThis seasonLEM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LEM 71–69 · win probability LEM 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 139.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LEM has more of the edges

NIA 2, LEM 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LEMBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NIA 26.6, LEM 39.5. Allowed: NIA 33.8, LEM 32.7
LEMBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NIA 50.5 and allows 52.8; LEM 52.6 and allows 49.3
LEMSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NIA 24.8%, LEM 25.2%. Defensive: NIA 67.1%, LEM 71.0%
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: NIA plays 63.4 a game (364th fastest), LEM 69.2 (168th). Faster games mean more points
NIASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NIA 18.9%, LEM 19.1%. Forced: NIA 16.6%, LEM 15.0%
NIASmall
LEM offense vs NIA defense
Offense 333rd of 366 against a defense 278th, on the model’s ratings
LEMSmall
NIA offense vs LEM defense
Offense 355th of 366 against a defense 308th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NIA 15%, LEM 24%. Transfers in: NIA 5, LEM 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
NIA has played the 334th-hardest schedule, LEM the 344th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Three-pointers
NIA hits 33.7% and allows 35.3%; LEM hits 34.3% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 40.5% and 40.8% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LEM -2.2—
Total—139.8—
Projected score—NIA 68.8 · LEM 71

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLEM -1.2—
1H total65.4—
1H projected scoreNIA 32.1 · LEM 33.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Niagara 1, Le Moyne 1, even 3
NiagaraBetterLe Moyne
G T. Walters7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 27
No call
G A. Moss10 pts · 7 reb · 5 ast Not ranked
G C. Farrell TR6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 11
Even
G J. Clayville TR6.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
G L. Woods TR4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 15
LEMBig
G D. King TR4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59
G B. Rieber TR3.9 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 7
Even
F K. Stuckey TR4.4 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5
G T. Blackshear TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 43
NIASmall
F T. Francis TR4.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 27
NiagaraBetterLe Moyne
NIA offense355th of 366 · -13.3
Even
LEM defense308th of 366 · -8.0
NIA defense278th of 366 · -7.0
NIASmall
LEM offense333rd of 366 · -10.8
Backcourt-8.7 · 5 players
LEMBig
Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
Bench-1.5 · 2 players
NIABig
Bench-6.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNIA betterLEM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Niagara
Guards
T. Walters22 minC. Farrell21 min · TRL. Woods18 min · TRB. Rieber16 min · TRT. Blackshear14 min · TRG. Dalmau7 min
Forwards
V. Todorovic10 min · TRN. SlingerlandNewF. RottaNewB. AngelettiNewD. EmokhareNew
Le Moyne
Guards
A. Moss37 minJ. Clayville20 min · TRD. King14 min · TRJ. Teat14 min · TRK. Williams12 min · TRJ. Lee4 min
Forwards
K. Stuckey19 min · TRT. Francis15 min · TRT. Roe7 minI. BrownNewC. SchreinerNewC. JohnsonNew
Centers
P. Hartman9 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NIALEM
Scoring
63.3 #355Points per game72.3 #234
1.00 #330Points per possession1.04 #265
63.4 #364Pace (possessions)69.2 #168
Shooting
50.5 #214Effective FG%52.6 #118
33.7 #1883-point %34.3 #152
40.5 #1593-point attempt rate40.8 #151
26.6 #353Free throw rate39.5 #68
Possessions
18.9 #318Turnover rate19.1 #323
24.8 #344Offensive rebound rate25.2 #337
13.8 #162Assists per game14.0 #149
Defense
71.7 #98Points allowed73.9 #154
1.13 #300Points allowed per possession1.07 #132
52.8 #260Opponent effective FG%49.3 #75
35.3 #268Opponent 3-point %36.0 #303
16.6 #177Turnovers forced15.0 #289
67.1 #297Defensive rebound rate71.0 #107
5.6 #284Steals per game5.5 #300
2.8 #254Blocks per game3.3 #177
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Niagara

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Merrimack66–73
  • Wvs Quinnipiac78–76
  • L@ Rider62–67
  • L@ Mount St Marys63–76
  • Wvs Iona70–68

A week or more of rest.

Le Moyne

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Stonehill71–81
  • L@ New Haven59–66
  • Wvs FDU76–59
  • L@ Stonehill68–77
  • L@ C Connecticut77–78

A week or more of rest.