Princeton Tigers vs St. Thomas Tommies: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 AM ETTrask Coliseum · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Princeton and St Thomas
PRIN	This season	STMN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PRIN 73–71 · win probability PRIN 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

PRIN 3, STMN 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

PRIN has played the 137th-hardest schedule, STMN the 341st. A record against a soft schedule means less

STMNBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PRIN 17.1%, STMN 14.4%. Forced: PRIN 14.2%, STMN 17.0%

STMNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PRIN 49.6 and allows 52.0; STMN 58.9 and allows 50.7

PRINBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PRIN 100%, STMN 35%. Transfers in: PRIN 0, STMN 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: PRIN plays 65.0 a game (344th fastest), STMN 69.7 (137th). Faster games mean more points

PRINSmall

STMN offense vs PRIN defense

Offense 192nd of 366 against a defense 115th, on the model’s ratings

STMNSmall

Three-pointers

PRIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.1%; STMN hits 36.0% and allows 31.7%. Threes are 44.5% and 46.3% of their shots

PRINSmall

PRIN offense vs STMN defense

Offense 177th of 366 against a defense 223rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PRIN 34.6, STMN 33.8. Allowed: PRIN 34.0, STMN 30.7

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PRIN 27.2%, STMN 22.6%. Defensive: PRIN 71.5%, STMN 73.4%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PRIN -1.7	—
Total	—	144.5	—
Projected score	—	PRIN 73.1 · STMN 71.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PRIN -1.1	—
1H total	67.6	—
1H projected score	PRIN 34.4 · STMN 33.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PRIN LLWWL	16-12	57%	3-1	—
STMN WWWLL	15-16	48%	1-3	—

Venue/role: PRIN neutral site; STMN neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRIN OOUOU	13-15	46%	8-20
STMN UUUUU	16-15	52%	21-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRIN	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
STMN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Princeton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	@ UVM	W75–69WO
Dec 6	@ NE	W70–57WU
Dec 12	@ LIU	No recent meeting

St Thomas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ BUCK	No recent meeting
Dec 10	vs UNCA	W80–59WU
Dec 12	vs ARST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Princeton

28 games played

Straight up

8-20

29% wins

Against the spread

16-12

57% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2029%

L W L L W L L L L L L L L W W W L L W L W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1257%

L W W L W L W W W W W L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1546%

O U U O U O O O U U O U U O O U O U U U O U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AKR	L 69-104	+13.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 11	vsBUCK	W 73-63	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 15	@KU	L 57-76	+22.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	@IONA	L 69-89	+2.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 20	vsNE	W 70-57	-2.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 24	vsBRAD	L 64-88	+9.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTEM	L 75-79	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsUVM	L 74-79	+5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsJOES	L 58-60	+5.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 118
Dec 3	@MONM	L 58-63	+5.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 121
Dec 6	@LUC	L 68-73	+6.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 10	vsMRMK	L 56-59	-2.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 22	@TEM	L 61-65	+8.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsUVM	W 75-69	+3.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 5	vsPENN	W 78-76	-3.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsYALE	W 76-60	+7.5	W +23.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 17	@HARV	L 80-87	+4.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	@DART	L 69-71	-1.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsBRWN	W 63-53	-4.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	@COR	L 64-87	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 151
Jan 31	@COLU	W 80-68	+5.5	W +17.5	139.5	O 148
Feb 7	@PENN	L 60-61	+3.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 121
Feb 13	vsCOR	L 65-89	+3.5	L −20.5	155.5	U 154
Feb 14	vsCOLU	L 65-75	+1.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 140
Feb 20	@BRWN	L 71-80	+2.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 151
Feb 27	vsHARV	L 56-58	+3.5	W +1.5	130.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsDART	W 82-61	-1.5	W +19.5	142.5	O 143
Mar 7	@YALE	L 53-78	+14.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

−21.5

BUCK

W 73-63

+5.5

L 57-76

+3.5

IONA

L 69-89

−17.5

W 70-57

+10.5

BRAD

L 64-88

−14.5

TEM

L 75-79

+4.5

UVM

L 74-79

+0.5

JOES

L 58-60

+3.5

MONM

L 58-63

+0.5

LUC

L 68-73

+1.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−5.5

TEM

L 61-65

+4.5

UVM

W 75-69

+9.5

PENN

W 78-76

−1.5

YALE

W 76-60

+23.5

HARV

L 80-87

−2.5

DART

L 69-71

−3.5

BRWN

W 63-53

+5.5

COR

L 64-87

−15.5

COLU

W 80-68

+17.5

PENN

L 60-61

+2.5

COR

L 65-89

−20.5

COLU

L 65-75

−8.5

BRWN

L 71-80

−6.5

HARV

L 56-58

+1.5

DART

W 82-61

+19.5

YALE

L 53-78

−10.5

covered 16didn’t cover 12avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

+16.5

BUCK

W 73-63

−10.5

L 57-76

−11.5

IONA

L 69-89

+3.5

W 70-57

−18.5

BRAD

L 64-88

+10.5

TEM

L 75-79

+8.5

UVM

L 74-79

+12.5

JOES

L 58-60

−28.5

MONM

L 58-63

−18.5

LUC

L 68-73

+4.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−19.5

TEM

L 61-65

−13.5

UVM

W 75-69

+7.5

PENN

W 78-76

+8.5

YALE

W 76-60

−6.5

HARV

L 80-87

+33.5

DART

L 69-71

−7.5

BRWN

W 63-53

−18.5

COR

L 64-87

−7.5

COLU

W 80-68

+8.5

PENN

L 60-61

−23.5

COR

L 65-89

−1.5

COLU

L 65-75

+2.5

BRWN

L 71-80

+21.5

HARV

L 56-58

−16.5

DART

W 82-61

+0.5

YALE

L 53-78

−6.5

over 13under 15avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

St Thomas

31 games played

Straight up

21-10

68% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1068%

L W L W W W L W L W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L L L W W L L W L W W L L L W W L L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O U U O U O U O U U O O O O O U U O O O U O O O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@SEMO	W 84-72	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsUNCO	W 73-72	-4.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsCSUF	L 80-88	-11.5	L −19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	@PORT	W 76-66	-5.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 3	@MTST	L 74-82	+2.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 156
Dec 7	vsWEB	W 88-65	-7.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 153
Dec 13	@UNCA	W 80-59	-3.5	W +17.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsUCR	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 4	vsDEN	W 92-88	-11.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 180
Jan 7	vsSDAK	W 99-86	-14.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 10	@ORU	W 82-71	-8.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 15	@UND	W 91-80	-10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 17	@NDSU	L 65-68	+2.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	vsSDST	W 74-69	-6.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	@SDAK	W 90-78	-10.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 29	vsUND	L 80-81	-11.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 161
Feb 1	vsKC	W 99-64	-17.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	@SDST	W 77-62	+1.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsORU	W 92-75	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 12	@OMA	L 94-98	-4.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 192
Feb 14	@KC	W 104-64	-12.5	W +27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 21	@DEN	L 80-82	-3.5	L −5.5	168.5	U 162
Feb 26	vsNDSU	W 84-62	-3.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsOMA	W 68-53	-11.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 121
Mar 5	vsSDST	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 7	vsUND	L 66-67	-11.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 133
Mar 17	@SEA	L 52-67	+2.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+9.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−3.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−19.5

PORT

W 76-66

+4.5

MTST

L 74-82

−5.5

WEB

W 88-65

+15.5

UNCA

W 80-59

+17.5

UCR

W 92-78

−0.5

DEN

W 92-88

−7.5

SDAK

W 99-86

−1.5

ORU

W 82-71

+2.5

UND

W 91-80

+0.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−0.5

SDST

W 74-69

−1.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+1.5

UND

L 80-81

−12.5

W 99-64

+17.5

SDST

W 77-62

+16.5

ORU

W 92-75

+1.5

OMA

L 94-98

−8.5

W 104-64

+27.5

DEN

L 80-82

−5.5

NDSU

W 84-62

+18.5

OMA

W 68-53

+3.5

SDST

W 80-67

+8.5

UND

L 66-67

−12.5

SEA

L 52-67

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+3.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−12.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+5.5

PORT

W 76-66

−13.5

MTST

L 74-82

+8.5

WEB

W 88-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-59

−9.5

UCR

W 92-78

+17.5

DEN

W 92-88

+16.5

SDAK

W 99-86

+22.5

ORU

W 82-71

+0.5

UND

W 91-80

+19.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−18.5

SDST

W 74-69

−12.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+6.5

UND

L 80-81

+8.5

W 99-64

+11.5

SDST

W 77-62

−18.5

ORU

W 92-75

+15.5

OMA

L 94-98

+35.5

W 104-64

+13.5

DEN

L 80-82

−6.5

NDSU

W 84-62

−9.5

OMA

W 68-53

−37.5

SDST

W 80-67

−3.5

UND

L 66-67

−20.5

SEA

L 52-67

−26.5

over 16under 15avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Princeton has the better starters

Position by position: Princeton 3, St Thomas 0, even 2

PrincetonBetterSt Thomas

G J. Hicke15.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 85

PRINSmall

G A. Herro5.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 57

G J. Stanton11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 64

PRINBig

G H. Tibbits2.7 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24

G L. Clark6.2 pts · 4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29

Even

F C. Bjerke9.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25

G D. Davis14.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 69

PRINBig

F C. Wilkins TR6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 9

F M. Abdullahi9.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 54

No call

F J. Lorenz TR2.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

PrincetonBetterSt Thomas

PRIN offense177th of 366 · -5.5

Even

STMN defense223rd of 366 · -5.8

PRIN defense115th of 366 · -1.5

PRINSmall

STMN offense192nd of 366 · -5.9

Backcourt+0.9 · 4 players

PRINSmall

Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player

PRINBig

Frontcourt-4.0 · 3 players

Bench-4.6 · 5 players

STMNBig

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPRIN betterSTMN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Princeton

Guards

J. Hicke35 minJ. Stanton32 minL. Clark29 minD. Davis28 minS. Whitfield12 minP. Seals8 min

Forwards

M. Abdullahi29 minJ. Huggins22 minC. Happy19 minJ. Hammond7 minC. McSweeney5 minW. Kutzler1 min

Centers

W. HiggsNew

St Thomas

Guards

A. Herro24 minH. Tibbits10 minK. Blue4 min · TRT. Franks3 minT. Humphries2 minA. Tauer2 min

Forwards

C. Bjerke25 minC. Wilkins22 min · TRJ. Lorenz10 min · TRK. Counts4 minL. MomcilovicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PRIN67.5 #324

STMN80.9 #48

Points per possession

PRIN1.04 #268

STMN1.16 #45

Pace (possessions)

PRIN65.0 #344

STMN69.7 #137

Shooting

Effective FG%

PRIN49.6 #260

STMN58.9 #5

3-point %

PRIN33.9 #177

STMN36.0 #57

3-point attempt rate

PRIN44.5 #78

STMN46.3 #41

Free throw rate

PRIN34.6 #192

STMN33.8 #220

Possessions

Turnover rate

PRIN17.1 #216

STMN14.4 #37

Offensive rebound rate

PRIN27.2 #287

STMN22.6 #353

Assists per game

PRIN12.5 #254

STMN16.4 #37

Defense

Points allowed

PRIN72.4 #114

STMN73.1 #135

Points allowed per possession

PRIN1.11 #242

STMN1.05 #82

Opponent effective FG%

PRIN52.0 #209

STMN50.7 #139

Opponent 3-point %

PRIN31.1 #36

STMN31.7 #52

Turnovers forced

PRIN14.2 #328

STMN17.0 #152

Defensive rebound rate

PRIN71.5 #82

STMN73.4 #25

Steals per game

PRIN4.6 #349

STMN7.5 #87

Blocks per game

PRIN2.1 #341

STMN2.6 #296

PRIN		STMN
Scoring
67.5 #324	Points per game	80.9 #48
1.04 #268	Points per possession	1.16 #45
65.0 #344	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #137
Shooting
49.6 #260	Effective FG%	58.9 #5
33.9 #177	3-point %	36.0 #57
44.5 #78	3-point attempt rate	46.3 #41
34.6 #192	Free throw rate	33.8 #220
Possessions
17.1 #216	Turnover rate	14.4 #37
27.2 #287	Offensive rebound rate	22.6 #353
12.5 #254	Assists per game	16.4 #37
Defense
72.4 #114	Points allowed	73.1 #135
1.11 #242	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #82
52.0 #209	Opponent effective FG%	50.7 #139
31.1 #36	Opponent 3-point %	31.7 #52
14.2 #328	Turnovers forced	17.0 #152
71.5 #82	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #25
4.6 #349	Steals per game	7.5 #87
2.1 #341	Blocks per game	2.6 #296

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Princeton

8-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Yale53–78
Wvs Dartmouth82–61
Lvs Harvard56–58
L@ Brown71–80
Lvs Columbia65–75

A week or more of rest.

St Thomas

21-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-5 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Seattle U52–67
Lvs North Dakota66–67
Wvs S Dakota St80–67
Wvs Omaha68–53
Wvs N Dakota St84–62

A week or more of rest.

Princeton Tigers vs St. Thomas Tommies

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Princeton

St Thomas

Princeton has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Princeton

St Thomas