Northern Illinois Huskies at Eastern Illinois Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 AM ETGroniger Arena · at E Illinois

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Illinois and E Illinois
NIU	This season	EIU
1-0	Record	0-0
0-1	ATS	0-0
1-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects EIU 72–72 · win probability EIU 50%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: EIU has more of the edges

NIU 1, EIU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

EIUBig

Three-pointers

NIU hits 30.9% and allows 36.3%; EIU hits 31.7% and allows 31.7%. Threes are 45.0% and 29.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

NIU has played the 167th-hardest schedule, EIU the 314th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NIUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NIU 30.3%, EIU 28.2%. Defensive: NIU 70.0%, EIU 64.8%

EIUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NIU 21.7%, EIU 18.6%. Forced: NIU 16.3%, EIU 19.3%

EIUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NIU 47.6 and allows 55.6; EIU 45.7 and allows 50.8

EIUSmall

Home court

EIU at home. This season: EIU 0-0 at home, NIU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: NIU plays 69.0 a game (181st fastest), EIU 67.0 (280th). Faster games mean more points

Even

EIU offense vs NIU defense

Offense 360th of 366 against a defense 327th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NIU 38.3, EIU 33.5. Allowed: NIU 38.3, EIU 35.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NIU 30%, EIU 22%. Transfers in: NIU 6, EIU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

NIU offense vs EIU defense

Offense 327th of 366 against a defense 332nd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	EIU -0.1	—
Total	—	144.1	—
Projected score	—	NIU 72 · EIU 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NIU -0.0	—
1H total	67.4	—
1H projected score	NIU 33.7 · EIU 33.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LWLLL	13-15	46%	10-7	—
EIU LWLWW	17-13	57%	6-6	—

Venue/role: NIU away; EIU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UUUOU	8-20	29%	7-21
EIU OUUOO	14-16	47%	10-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
EIU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	@ GB	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs MILW	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ LIN	L64–99LO

E Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs ILST	L61–69WU
Dec 5	@ BELL	No recent meeting
Dec 9	@ KC	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NIU 2–1 EIUNIU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · NIU 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2024-25	NIU 59 @ EIU 72	EIU -3.5	EIU W
Nov 30, 2022-23	NIU 90 @ EIU 70	EIU +4.5	NIU W
Dec 1, 2021-22	EIU 45 @ NIU 55	NIU -6	NIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Illinois

28 games played

Straight up

7-21

25% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-20

29% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2125%

W L L L W L L L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

W W L W W L L L W L L W L L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-2029%

O O U U U U O U O U U U U U U O U O U O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsULM	W 102-82	-7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@WIS	L 72-97	+28.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 10	@GCU	L 59-88	+22.5	L −6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 18	@UNI	L 57-70	+19.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@LUC	W 76-59	+13.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	@APSU	L 59-77	+6.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsLIN	L 64-99	-3.5	L −38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@BRAD	L 55-84	+18.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 13	@ELON	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 164
Dec 20	vsCMU	W 74-73	-2.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 31	vsBUF	L 67-81	+6.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 148
Jan 3	@KENT	L 73-77	+16.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsTOL	L 61-75	+7.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 13	@EMU	L 59-77	+7.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 17	vsMASS	W 70-68	+8.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 138
Jan 20	@OHIO	L 77-80	+11.5	W +8.5	154.5	O 157
Jan 24	@BALL	L 53-58	+5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 111
Jan 27	vsWMU	W 85-65	-1.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 150
Jan 31	@M-OH	L 61-85	+16.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 7	@GAST	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 11	vsBGSU	L 52-68	+7.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 120
Feb 14	@CMU	L 46-88	+4.5	L −37.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 17	@BUF	W 72-70	+9.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 142
Feb 21	vsOHIO	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 24	@TOL	L 69-79	+12.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	vsBALL	L 43-79	-1.5	L −37.5	133.5	U 122
Mar 3	vsKENT	L 76-102	+10.5	L −15.5	148.5	O 178
Mar 6	@AKR	L 55-94	+23.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+12.5

WIS

L 72-97

+3.5

GCU

L 59-88

−6.5

UNI

L 57-70

+6.5

LUC

W 76-59

+30.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

−38.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−10.5

ELON

L 79-85

+5.5

CMU

W 74-73

−1.5

BUF

L 67-81

−7.5

KENT

L 73-77

+12.5

TOL

L 61-75

−6.5

EMU

L 59-77

−10.5

MASS

W 70-68

+10.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+8.5

BALL

L 53-58

+0.5

WMU

W 85-65

+18.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−7.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−8.5

CMU

L 46-88

−37.5

BUF

W 72-70

+11.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−1.5

TOL

L 69-79

+2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−37.5

KENT

L 76-102

−15.5

AKR

L 55-94

−15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+36.5

WIS

L 72-97

+11.5

GCU

L 59-88

−16.5

UNI

L 57-70

−19.5

LUC

W 76-59

−13.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

+15.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−7.5

ELON

L 79-85

+7.5

CMU

W 74-73

−2.5

BUF

L 67-81

−4.5

KENT

L 73-77

−7.5

TOL

L 61-75

−25.5

EMU

L 59-77

−5.5

MASS

W 70-68

−19.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+2.5

BALL

L 53-58

−30.5

WMU

W 85-65

+3.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−12.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−24.5

CMU

L 46-88

−12.5

BUF

W 72-70

−3.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−8.5

TOL

L 69-79

−2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−11.5

KENT

L 76-102

+29.5

AKR

L 55-94

−6.5

over 8under 20avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

E Illinois

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L W L L L L L L L W L L W W W L W L L L L W L W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

W W W L L L W L W W W W W W L L W L L L W W L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U O O O O U U O U U U U U O U O O U U U O O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@VAL	L 63-66	+5.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	vsNICH	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 11	@ND	L 58-78	+23.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 14	@UK	L 53-99	+35.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 25	@CARK	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 28	@PUR	L 62-109	+40.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 171
Dec 6	vsLIN	L 74-82	+8.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsEKU	L 59-68	+6.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 127
Dec 14	@ISU	L 53-78	+43.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 18	vsSIUE	W 76-72	+6.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 148
Jan 1	@SEMO	L 59-68	+12.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 3	@UTM	L 61-65	+10.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 126
Jan 8	vsTNTC	W 71-61	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 10	vsTNST	W 74-70	+3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 13	vsWIU	W 57-55	-6.5	L −4.5	132.5	U 112
Jan 15	@LR	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 22	@USI	W 59-51	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 24	@MORE	L 68-73	+4.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 141
Jan 29	vsUTM	L 68-76	+3.5	L −4.5	129.5	O 144
Jan 31	vsSEMO	L 59-77	+4.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 136
Feb 5	@TNST	L 68-77	+9.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 7	@TNTC	W 60-54	+4.5	W +10.5	140.5	U 114
Feb 10	@WIU	L 70-79	-4.5	L −13.5	133.5	O 149
Feb 14	vsLR	W 78-72	+2.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 150
Feb 19	vsMORE	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 143
Feb 21	vsUSI	L 68-70	-4.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 26	@LIN	W 71-67	+7.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 28	@SIUE	L 50-77	+5.5	L −21.5	129.5	U 127
Mar 4	vsSIUE	W 77-71	+3.5	W +9.5	128.5	O 148
Mar 5	vsUTM	L 63-66	+7.5	W +4.5	126.5	O 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

+2.5

NICH

W 65-57

+10.5

L 58-78

+3.5

L 53-99

−10.5

CARK

L 60-81

−15.5

PUR

L 62-109

−6.5

LIN

L 74-82

+0.5

EKU

L 59-68

−2.5

ISU

L 53-78

+18.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+10.5

SEMO

L 59-68

+3.5

UTM

L 61-65

+6.5

TNTC

W 71-61

+11.5

TNST

W 74-70

+7.5

WIU

W 57-55

−4.5

L 63-74

−4.5

USI

W 59-51

+10.5

L 68-73

−0.5

UTM

L 68-76

−4.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−13.5

TNST

L 68-77

+0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

+10.5

WIU

L 70-79

−13.5

W 78-72

+8.5

L 70-73

−1.5

USI

L 68-70

−6.5

LIN

W 71-67

+11.5

SIUE

L 50-77

−21.5

SIUE

W 77-71

+9.5

UTM

L 63-66

+4.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

−15.5

NICH

W 65-57

−13.5

L 58-78

−7.5

L 53-99

+4.5

CARK

L 60-81

+1.5

PUR

L 62-109

+29.5

LIN

L 74-82

+10.5

EKU

L 59-68

−22.5

ISU

L 53-78

−13.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+13.5

SEMO

L 59-68

−19.5

UTM

L 61-65

−7.5

TNTC

W 71-61

−8.5

TNST

W 74-70

−0.5

WIU

W 57-55

−20.5

L 63-74

+3.5

USI

W 59-51

−25.5

L 68-73

+6.5

UTM

L 68-76

+14.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−2.5

TNST

L 68-77

−0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

−26.5

WIU

L 70-79

+15.5

W 78-72

+15.5

L 70-73

+5.5

USI

L 68-70

+2.5

LIN

W 71-67

−6.5

SIUE

L 50-77

−2.5

SIUE

W 77-71

+19.5

UTM

L 63-66

+2.5

over 14under 16avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Illinois has the better starters

Position by position: N Illinois 2, E Illinois 0, even 3

N IllinoisBetterE Illinois

G M. Weisbrod TR11 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast Score 27

No call

G J. Elder8 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

G T. Polite15 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 45

NIUBig

G M. Blackwell4.4 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 7

G U. Buntyn TR12.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 52

NIUBig

F A. Austin2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 1

G D. Douglas TR12 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast Score 9

No call

F D. Burton NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F T. Samuels7 pts · 8.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33

No call

C T. Vogel NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

N IllinoisBetterE Illinois

NIU offense327th of 366 · -10.6

Even

EIU defense332nd of 366 · -8.7

NIU defense327th of 366 · -8.5

Even

EIU offense360th of 366 · -14.1

Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players

EIUSmall

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.4 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-1.8 · 3 players

Bench-3.5 · 3 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestNIU betterEIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Illinois

Guards

M. Weisbrod31 min · TRT. Polite31 minU. Buntyn31 min · TRD. Douglas30 min · TRN. Carter-SmithNewC. HardrickNew

Forwards

T. Samuels30 minM. Ivanauskas20 min · TRJ. Daugherty10 min · TRA. McBirney-Griffin10 min · TRB. GrossNew

E Illinois

Guards

J. Elder17 minM. Blackwell16 minD. DavenportNewJ. MillerNewJ. CallowayNewS. SimsNew

Forwards

A. Austin10 minD. BurtonNewG. WelchNewD. NtambweNewE. HillsmanNew

Centers

T. VogelNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NIU66.3 #341

EIU64.6 #351

Points per possession

NIU0.96 #354

EIU0.96 #350

Pace (possessions)

NIU69.0 #181

EIU67.0 #280

Shooting

Effective FG%

NIU47.6 #324

EIU45.7 #353

3-point %

NIU30.9 #323

EIU31.7 #292

3-point attempt rate

NIU45.0 #66

EIU29.9 #352

Free throw rate

NIU38.3 #95

EIU33.5 #224

Possessions

Turnover rate

NIU21.7 #360

EIU18.6 #301

Offensive rebound rate

NIU30.3 #187

EIU28.2 #256

Assists per game

NIU11.6 #308

EIU11.1 #336

Defense

Points allowed

NIU78.9 #291

EIU72.2 #111

Points allowed per possession

NIU1.15 #323

EIU1.08 #152

Opponent effective FG%

NIU55.6 #342

EIU50.8 #146

Opponent 3-point %

NIU36.3 #315

EIU31.7 #50

Turnovers forced

NIU16.3 #199

EIU19.3 #37

Defensive rebound rate

NIU70.0 #161

EIU64.8 #343

Steals per game

NIU5.6 #288

EIU7.5 #78

Blocks per game

NIU1.9 #352

EIU2.9 #251

NIU		EIU
Scoring
66.3 #341	Points per game	64.6 #351
0.96 #354	Points per possession	0.96 #350
69.0 #181	Pace (possessions)	67.0 #280
Shooting
47.6 #324	Effective FG%	45.7 #353
30.9 #323	3-point %	31.7 #292
45.0 #66	3-point attempt rate	29.9 #352
38.3 #95	Free throw rate	33.5 #224
Possessions
21.7 #360	Turnover rate	18.6 #301
30.3 #187	Offensive rebound rate	28.2 #256
11.6 #308	Assists per game	11.1 #336
Defense
78.9 #291	Points allowed	72.2 #111
1.15 #323	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #152
55.6 #342	Opponent effective FG%	50.8 #146
36.3 #315	Opponent 3-point %	31.7 #50
16.3 #199	Turnovers forced	19.3 #37
70.0 #161	Defensive rebound rate	64.8 #343
5.6 #288	Steals per game	7.5 #78
1.9 #352	Blocks per game	2.9 #251

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Illinois

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Akron55–94
Lvs Kent State76–102
Lvs Ball State43–79
L@ Toledo69–79
Lvs Ohio66–74

A week or more of rest.

E Illinois

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UT Martin63–66
Wvs SIUE77–71
L@ SIUE50–77
W@ Lindenwood Lions71–67
Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles68–70

A week or more of rest.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Eastern Illinois Panthers

What could decide it: EIU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Illinois

E Illinois

N Illinois has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Illinois

E Illinois