1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. GAST vs FGCU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Georgia State Panthers vs Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

Suncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site
#208GASTGeorgia St
vs
#266FGCUFGCU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GASTThis seasonFGCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GAST 75–72 · win probability GAST 60%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GAST has more of the edges

GAST 3, FGCU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FGCUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GAST 27.7%, FGCU 31.1%. Defensive: GAST 66.4%, FGCU 71.8%
GASTBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: GAST 37.2, FGCU 29.1. Allowed: GAST 34.9, FGCU 38.3
GASTSmall
GAST offense vs FGCU defense
Offense 214th of 366 against a defense 274th, on the model’s ratings
GASTSmall
FGCU offense vs GAST defense
Offense 259th of 366 against a defense 205th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GAST 4%, FGCU 25%. Transfers in: GAST 10, FGCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: GAST 44.2 and allows 50.6; FGCU 52.0 and allows 53.4
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: GAST plays 69.1 a game (176th fastest), FGCU 69.9 (122nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
GAST hits 30.6% and allows 33.1%; FGCU hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 42.4% and 38.4% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GAST 15.9%, FGCU 16.0%. Forced: GAST 16.4%, FGCU 16.4%
Context
Schedule so far
GAST has played the 232nd-hardest schedule, FGCU the 231st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GAST -3.0—
Total—147.6—
Projected score—GAST 75.3 · FGCU 72.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGAST -1.9—
1H total69.0—
1H projected scoreGAST 35.5 · FGCU 33.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Georgia St has the better starters

Position by position: Georgia St 1, FGCU 0, even 4
Georgia StBetterFGCU
G J. Jackson TR12.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 51
Even
G E. Brooks TR12.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 47
G J. Meyer TR12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 51
GASTSmall
G D. Williams6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 21
G E. Parnell TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40
No call
G G. Washington2.6 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
F T. Dixon TR9.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 75
No call
F G. Tanner2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
F J. Sirtautas TR5.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37
Even
C T. Guillouette2.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26
Georgia StBetterFGCU
GAST offense214th of 366 · -6.5
GASTSmall
FGCU defense274th of 366 · -6.9
GAST defense205th of 366 · -5.0
GASTSmall
FGCU offense259th of 366 · -8.0
Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players
GASTSmall
Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players
GASTSmall
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
Bench-3.7 · 5 players
FGCUBig
Bench-0.7 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestGAST betterFGCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Georgia St
Guards
J. Jackson33 min · TRJ. Meyer29 min · TRE. Parnell26 min · TRZ. Wilburn17 min · TRA. Smith15 min · TRD. Thomas14 min · TR
Forwards
T. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Sirtautas20 min · TRJ. Fredson-Cole19 min · TRO. WilsonNewK. JacksonNew
Centers
M. Nicholson4 min · TR
FGCU
Guards
E. Brooks30 min · TRD. Williams19 minG. Washington8 minM. McCarthy2 minB. WashingtonNewN. SermpezisNew
Forwards
G. Tanner8 minC. Outlaw2 min · TRB. LucasNewE. BarlowNewC. KoniecznyNewT. WestercampNew
Centers
T. Guillouette13 minJ. Houser6 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GASTFGCU
Scoring
68.4 #307Points per game76.6 #130
0.99 #335Points per possession1.10 #138
69.1 #176Pace (possessions)69.9 #122
Shooting
44.2 #362Effective FG%52.0 #147
30.6 #3293-point %33.2 #219
42.4 #1293-point attempt rate38.4 #202
37.2 #124Free throw rate29.1 #331
Possessions
15.9 #132Turnover rate16.0 #135
27.7 #278Offensive rebound rate31.1 #161
11.1 #334Assists per game14.5 #115
Defense
75.4 #203Points allowed78.0 #266
1.09 #202Points allowed per possession1.11 #254
50.6 #135Opponent effective FG%53.4 #280
33.1 #132Opponent 3-point %35.5 #275
16.4 #197Turnovers forced16.4 #191
66.4 #312Defensive rebound rate71.8 #73
6.7 #149Steals per game7.7 #66
3.0 #212Blocks per game3.4 #153
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Georgia St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisiana75–84
  • Lvs Old Dominion73–81
  • Lvs Coastal71–76
  • Lvs James Madison65–80
  • Wvs GA Southern66–64

A week or more of rest.

FGCU

14-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs C Arkansas63–73
  • Wvs Lipscomb77–53
  • Wvs North Alabama69–58
  • L@ Stetson63–78
  • L@ North Florida70–76

A week or more of rest.