Mercer Bears at Georgia State Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 12:00 AM ETGSU Convocation Center · at Georgia St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Mercer and Georgia St
MER	This season	GAST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GAST 77–73 · win probability GAST 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MER has more of the edges

MER 5, GAST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MERSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MER 32.6%, GAST 27.7%. Defensive: MER 66.8%, GAST 66.4%

MERSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MER 39.2, GAST 37.2. Allowed: MER 29.7, GAST 34.9

MERSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MER 53.1 and allows 52.5; GAST 44.2 and allows 50.6

GASTSmall

GAST offense vs MER defense

Offense 214th of 366 against a defense 268th, on the model’s ratings

MERSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MER 15.0%, GAST 15.9%. Forced: MER 17.0%, GAST 16.4%

GASTSmall

Home court

GAST at home. This season: GAST 0-0 at home, MER 0-0 away

MERSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MER 28%, GAST 4%. Transfers in: MER 2, GAST 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

MER has played the 193rd-hardest schedule, GAST the 232nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

MER hits 35.6% and allows 36.2%; GAST hits 30.6% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 39.2% and 42.4% of their shots

Even

MER offense vs GAST defense

Offense 223rd of 366 against a defense 205th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: MER plays 69.5 a game (148th fastest), GAST 69.1 (176th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GAST -3.5	—
Total	—	149.4	—
Projected score	—	MER 73 · GAST 76.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GAST -2.0	—
1H total	69.9	—
1H projected score	MER 34 · GAST 35.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MER LLLWL	19-10	66%	10-6	—
GAST WLLLL	13-17	43%	5-7	—

Venue/role: MER away; GAST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MER OOUOU	14-15	48%	16-13
GAST UOOOO	14-16	47%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MER	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
GAST	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mercer

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs WOF	L77–80LU
Dec 8	@ ASU	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ UNM	No recent meeting

Georgia St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ ULM	W77–57WU
Dec 9	vs KENN	L69–92LO
Dec 12	vs TXSO	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MER 4–1 GASTMER leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · MER has won the last 3 meetings · MER 5-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 2, 2025-26	GAST 67 @ MER 78	MER -10.5	MER W
Dec 28, 2024-25	MER 71 @ GAST 68	GAST -0.5	MER W
Dec 9, 2023-24	GAST 60 @ MER 64	MER +1.5	MER W
Nov 15, 2022-23	MER 83 @ GAST 85	GAST -3.5	MER W
Dec 4, 2021-22	GAST 77 @ MER 83	MER +2	MER W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mercer

29 games played

Straight up

16-13

55% wins

Against the spread

19-10

66% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1355%

L W L W W W W L L L L L W W W W W L W W L L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1066%

W W L W W W W W L W W W W W W W W L W L L L W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1548%

U O O O U O U U U O U U O O U O O U O O U U U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TENN	L 61-76	+28.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 9	vsLIP	W 92-77	-3.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 15	@WIN	L 69-105	+2.5	L −33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 22	@EKU	W 95-83	+4.5	W +16.5	163.5	O 178
Nov 26	vsAPP	W 75-67	-6.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 29	@ELON	W 91-84	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 175
Dec 2	vsGAST	W 78-67	-10.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 13	@CLEM	L 63-70	+22.5	W +15.5	152.5	U 133
Dec 17	@UCF	L 63-81	+16.5	L −1.5	160.5	U 144
Dec 20	@WSU	L 78-84	+7.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 162
Dec 31	@FUR	L 72-74	+2.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 3	@ETSU	L 71-77	+7.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 148
Jan 7	vsCIT	W 101-63	-16.5	W +21.5	147.5	O 164
Jan 10	vsWOF	W 109-97	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	O 206
Jan 15	@VMI	W 77-67	-8.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 144
Jan 17	@UNCG	W 102-92	-5.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 194
Jan 21	vsWCU	W 88-76	-8.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 164
Jan 24	@WOF	L 77-80	-2.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 157
Jan 29	vsUNCG	W 95-77	-10.5	W +7.5	158.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsVMI	W 95-81	-18.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 176
Feb 5	@UTC	L 75-79	-4.5	L −8.5	155.5	U 154
Feb 7	@SAM	L 49-69	-1.5	L −21.5	160.5	U 118
Feb 11	vsFUR	W 69-64	-3.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 133
Feb 14	@CIT	W 70-54	-11.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 124
Feb 19	vsUTC	L 90-94	-10.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 184
Feb 21	vsSAM	W 89-86	-3.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 175
Feb 25	@WCU	L 74-78	-1.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 152
Feb 28	vsETSU	W 82-76	-1.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 158
Mar 7	vsWCU	L 73-77	-1.5	L −5.5	154.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 61-76

+13.5

LIP

W 92-77

+11.5

WIN

L 69-105

−33.5

EKU

W 95-83

+16.5

APP

W 75-67

+1.5

ELON

W 91-84

+9.5

GAST

W 78-67

+0.5

CLEM

L 63-70

+15.5

UCF

L 63-81

−1.5

WSU

L 78-84

+1.5

FUR

L 72-74

+0.5

ETSU

L 71-77

+1.5

CIT

W 101-63

+21.5

WOF

W 109-97

+8.5

VMI

W 77-67

+1.5

UNCG

W 102-92

+4.5

WCU

W 88-76

+3.5

WOF

L 77-80

−5.5

UNCG

W 95-77

+7.5

VMI

W 95-81

−4.5

UTC

L 75-79

−8.5

SAM

L 49-69

−21.5

FUR

W 69-64

+1.5

CIT

W 70-54

+4.5

UTC

L 90-94

−14.5

SAM

W 89-86

−0.5

WCU

L 74-78

−5.5

ETSU

W 82-76

+4.5

WCU

L 73-77

−5.5

covered 19didn’t cover 10avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 61-76

−6.5

LIP

W 92-77

+11.5

WIN

L 69-105

+11.5

EKU

W 95-83

+14.5

APP

W 75-67

−0.5

ELON

W 91-84

+15.5

GAST

W 78-67

−10.5

CLEM

L 63-70

−19.5

UCF

L 63-81

−16.5

WSU

L 78-84

+10.5

FUR

L 72-74

−8.5

ETSU

L 71-77

−0.5

CIT

W 101-63

+16.5

WOF

W 109-97

+49.5

VMI

W 77-67

−9.5

UNCG

W 102-92

+38.5

WCU

W 88-76

+5.5

WOF

L 77-80

−0.5

UNCG

W 95-77

+13.5

VMI

W 95-81

+22.5

UTC

L 75-79

−1.5

SAM

L 49-69

−42.5

FUR

W 69-64

−18.5

CIT

W 70-54

−23.5

UTC

L 90-94

+32.5

SAM

W 89-86

+18.5

WCU

L 74-78

−4.5

ETSU

W 82-76

+8.5

WCU

L 73-77

−4.5

over 14under 15avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L W L L L L L W L W W W L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U U O U U U O O U U O O U O U U O O U U O O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@SDST	L 58-105	+12.5	L −34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsSAM	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsNMSU	L 58-77	+12.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 135
Dec 2	@MER	L 67-78	+10.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@KENN	L 69-92	+14.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 161
Dec 13	vsJXST	W 77-73	+3.5	W +7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 18	@GASO	L 67-90	+9.5	L −13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	@APP	W 70-63	+7.5	W +14.5	137.5	U 133
Dec 31	@MRSH	L 80-84	+13.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 164
Jan 3	@CCU	W 89-71	+6.5	W +24.5	148.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsAPP	L 50-52	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 10	vsMRSH	W 81-73	+4.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 154
Jan 17	@ULM	W 77-57	-6.5	W +13.5	155.5	U 134
Jan 22	vsUSM	W 69-62	-1.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 131
Jan 24	vsARST	W 82-81	+4.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 29	@UL	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 31	@USA	L 67-69	+5.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 4	vsTROY	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsNIU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 12	@JMU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 160
Feb 14	@ODU	L 55-78	+3.5	L −19.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 19	vsGASO	W 66-64	+1.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 130
Feb 21	vsJMU	L 65-80	+2.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 145
Feb 24	vsCCU	L 71-76	+1.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 147
Feb 27	vsODU	L 73-81	+1.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 154
Mar 3	vsUL	L 75-84	-1.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

SDST

L 58-105

−34.5

SAM

L 63-78

−9.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−6.5

MER

L 67-78

−0.5

KENN

L 69-92

−8.5

JXST

W 77-73

+7.5

GASO

L 67-90

−13.5

APP

W 70-63

+14.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+9.5

CCU

W 89-71

+24.5

APP

L 50-52

−0.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+12.5

ULM

W 77-57

+13.5

USM

W 69-62

+5.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

−11.5

USA

L 67-69

+3.5

TROY

L 63-74

−4.5

NIU

L 74-75

−5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+3.5

ODU

L 55-78

−19.5

GASO

W 66-64

+3.5

JMU

L 65-80

−12.5

CCU

L 71-76

−3.5

ODU

L 73-81

−6.5

L 75-84

−10.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

SDST

L 58-105

+19.5

SAM

L 63-78

−5.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−1.5

MER

L 67-78

−10.5

KENN

L 69-92

+2.5

JXST

W 77-73

+10.5

GASO

L 67-90

−2.5

APP

W 70-63

−4.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+12.5

CCU

W 89-71

+11.5

APP

L 50-52

−38.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+0.5

ULM

W 77-57

−21.5

USM

W 69-62

−13.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

+24.5

USA

L 67-69

−4.5

TROY

L 63-74

−7.5

NIU

L 74-75

+5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+15.5

ODU

L 55-78

−14.5

GASO

W 66-64

−24.5

JMU

L 65-80

+2.5

CCU

L 71-76

+5.5

ODU

L 73-81

+4.5

L 75-84

+24.5

over 14under 16avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia St has the better starters

Position by position: Mercer 1, Georgia St 2, even 2

MercerBetterGeorgia St

G B. Shoulders9.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41

Even

G J. Jackson TR12.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 51

G Q. Perkins8.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 22

GASTSmall

G J. Meyer TR12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 51

F K. Steele TR8 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 62

MERSmall

G E. Parnell TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

F M. Mabor Makoi TR1.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 10

GASTBig

F T. Dixon TR9.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 75

F P. Padegimas NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F J. Sirtautas TR5.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

MercerBetterGeorgia St

MER offense223rd of 366 · -6.8

Even

GAST defense205th of 366 · -5.0

MER defense268th of 366 · -6.8

GASTSmall

GAST offense214th of 366 · -6.5

Backcourt-3.4 · 2 players

GASTSmall

Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-3.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMER betterGAST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Mercer

Guards

B. Shoulders32 minQ. Perkins24 minM. KoveosNewD. BarrNewH. LyttleNewK. LamonteNew

Forwards

K. Steele21 min · TRM. Mabor Makoi8 min · TRP. PadegimasNewS. MayhughNewD. KovacevicNew

Georgia St

Guards

J. Jackson33 min · TRJ. Meyer29 min · TRE. Parnell26 min · TRZ. Wilburn17 min · TRA. Smith15 min · TRD. Thomas14 min · TR

Forwards

T. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Sirtautas20 min · TRJ. Fredson-Cole19 min · TRO. WilsonNewK. JacksonNew

Centers

M. Nicholson4 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MER80.1 #65

GAST68.4 #307

Points per possession

MER1.15 #55

GAST0.99 #335

Pace (possessions)

MER69.5 #148

GAST69.1 #176

Shooting

Effective FG%

MER53.1 #98

GAST44.2 #362

3-point %

MER35.6 #87

GAST30.6 #329

3-point attempt rate

MER39.2 #188

GAST42.4 #129

Free throw rate

MER39.2 #74

GAST37.2 #124

Possessions

Turnover rate

MER15.0 #67

GAST15.9 #132

Offensive rebound rate

MER32.6 #102

GAST27.7 #278

Assists per game

MER12.7 #240

GAST11.1 #334

Defense

Points allowed

MER77.8 #263

GAST75.4 #203

Points allowed per possession

MER1.12 #273

GAST1.09 #202

Opponent effective FG%

MER52.5 #242

GAST50.6 #135

Opponent 3-point %

MER36.2 #311

GAST33.1 #132

Turnovers forced

MER17.0 #155

GAST16.4 #197

Defensive rebound rate

MER66.8 #303

GAST66.4 #312

Steals per game

MER7.1 #115

GAST6.7 #149

Blocks per game

MER3.2 #186

GAST3.0 #212

MER		GAST
Scoring
80.1 #65	Points per game	68.4 #307
1.15 #55	Points per possession	0.99 #335
69.5 #148	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #176
Shooting
53.1 #98	Effective FG%	44.2 #362
35.6 #87	3-point %	30.6 #329
39.2 #188	3-point attempt rate	42.4 #129
39.2 #74	Free throw rate	37.2 #124
Possessions
15.0 #67	Turnover rate	15.9 #132
32.6 #102	Offensive rebound rate	27.7 #278
12.7 #240	Assists per game	11.1 #334
Defense
77.8 #263	Points allowed	75.4 #203
1.12 #273	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #202
52.5 #242	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #135
36.2 #311	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #132
17.0 #155	Turnovers forced	16.4 #197
66.8 #303	Defensive rebound rate	66.4 #312
7.1 #115	Steals per game	6.7 #149
3.2 #186	Blocks per game	3.0 #212

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercer

16-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs W Carolina73–77
Wvs ETSU82–76
L@ W Carolina74–78
Wvs Samford89–86
Lvs Chattanooga90–94

A week or more of rest.

Georgia St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana75–84
Lvs Old Dominion73–81
Lvs Coastal71–76
Lvs James Madison65–80
Wvs GA Southern66–64

A week or more of rest.

Mercer Bears at Georgia State Panthers

What could decide it: MER has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Mercer

Georgia St

Georgia St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Mercer

Georgia St